Oct 8 NHL total When handicapping NHL totals, it is important to recognize that scheduling dynamics have an impact on scoring.
I played Dallas/Chicago OVER 5.5 (-120) on tonight's card. These same two teams played in Dallas last night with the Stars winning 2-1. The potent Blackhawk offense scored its only goal in the last minute of the game when they pulled their goalie. Both teams caught a late plane to play their rematch in Chicago.
Last season, I posted a system that has been profitable over the years. When two teams play a rare home and home series ( with no rest between games) and the first game goes UNDER the total, play the second matchup OVER the total.
Unlike many trends and systems, this scheduling dynamic makes sense. Since the first game was lower scoring, the matchup was most likely a physical, tight checking contest.Most probably, you will get either a tired goalie or a backup in goal for the second of back-to-back contests. In addition, playing tough defense requires a lot of energy . Playing with tired legs can result in more grabbing (i.e. a penalty) versus skating in proper position. Hockey is a collision sport. Players remember who elbowed them or put a stick in their ribs last night. Since there are very few sissies in hockey, there will be an immediate opportunity to gain retribution in tonight's contest. The added testosterone level should lead to more power play opportunities. Finally, both teams have an immediate recall of what their opponent did to slow them down last night. Players may adjust their shot on a goalie who was protecting the five-hole. They know how the opposing team defended the passing lanes for power play opportunites and will adjust their strategy.
Even though this bet may lose on tonight's contest, you may want to watch for this rare scheduling dynamic as the season progresses. Since this is one of the few trends or systems that makes sense, it should prove to be profitable in the future.
Good luck,
charliej
