Pebble Beach Golf

Pebble Beach Golf Molder +145 over Noh - Don't understand this line...Noh played San Diego, then went to Dubai, and now back at Pebble in 3 consecutive weeks. Even without the travel, Molder shouldn't be this much of a dog, especially considering he has 2 top 10's in last 3 outings at Pebble. Noh just average of late....26th in Dubai last week. Horschel -140 over Ogilivy - Ogilivy missed cut last two weeks by 8 and 7 shots. All I know about Horschel is that he has made 4 straight cuts (including finishing 10th last week), and going even further back he was 4th at Q-School. Sabbatini -135 O'Hair - I'll continue to beat up on O'hair until he shows any sign of a golf game. 3 straight cuts and not even close in any of them. Na +145 over Stadler - Na might have trouble keeping patience during 6 hour rounds, but he was 5th in this event last year so not sure why he is viewed as such a decided underdog against Stadler. (Record 1-2) -1.2 units

There is going to be an echo. I bet Molder +145 and I have to disclose for full honesty I bet him at +107. I would say I don't understand this line where it currently stands but I was having trouble understanding the first line so that is a given. I looked at Noh and I didn't even know he was in Dubai. Thx John. He closed off last year fairly well. He is a good driver of the golf ball it seems for distance but it appears he's a little wild. His overall driving then isn't really great. However, he putts fairly well. If he were driving the ball well he does seem dangerous. But why choose him to do that here at PB? Is there anything about PB (and its other 2 courses as well)? Noh doesn't even have a track record here----at least on the PGA tour. He is more dangerous than I thought though as it seems he has "skills". But Molder is a top putter and as John says a good track record at Pebble the past few years. I'd like to think Molder would be favoured and a sharp guy might have a good bet on Noh as the dog but they're determined to get a piece of this guy. Can't argue the money that has come in on Noh. That means it is likely a Singaporean criminal gang that has gotten to Molder and betting on him is wrong. With all of the news yesterday fixing football matches it was time to fix this for you know for 5K they can win. I did bet Horschel as well strangely enough. He is one of the hotter guys on the tour and as you say Ogilvy is off to a bad start this season. I didn't like that Ogilvy is doing so poorly his qualification for the Masters and at least one of those WGC tournaments are in doubt so he will have some motivation. I didn't bet the other two but I thought about those ones too. Market really against Na..He looked good last week. O'Hair you called it last week. He's another dreg at the bottom. Not sure I trust Rory and O'Hair sometimes comes out of nowhere (He's always struggling so that makes sense) LW got beat with Gay vs. Garrigus fading the steam. Garrigus's performance was strong----probably stronger than I expected---but I did think myself he was better than his track record there. He's absolutely a golfer now that sharps are just steaming. Got a good ride with Gay though he certainly performed well. Now Garrigus is already steamed vs. Harrington. I don't know. Harrington is another pretty good golfer to say the least. Great start last week in Phoenix. I don't know if he'll beat Garrigus but Harrington seems like value as a dog at +125 where I see him now. I noted Estes was steamed vs. Gainey. Estes has a great recent track record here. I'm not really interested in Gainey myself as he misses alot of cuts. I just don't follow Estes enough. Seems he could miss the cut but I guess not the way he's priced.

I see Noh has the early lead. Hate to be negative so my writing is a little biased like I have lost this matchup already. The early money bettors actually are good. Would really like to know why Noh was such a good play here. It is early but hard to ignore his strong start this week. IMO obviously I didn't think Molder would be easy to dispatch. Of course it might be just variance as everyone likes to phrase but I find it more than ironic that I've got a pretty good golfer in Molder (or Mickleson, Jack Nicklaus ) getting beat by Noh (who I do think is much better than I thought from a little walk through by his stats which I did yesterday) but as John says not that impressive LW and has no PGA track record here at PB---but yet got all the money in this matchup and has an early tie for the lead for the tourny. No, I don't call it variance I call it getting beat. Badly. Will need some help to turn this around. Estes is off to a good start. You may say it is not that impressive to choose Estes over Gainey but what impresses me is the conviction to bet this to such a high level by the early golf bettors. I might have to keep my eyes peeled to the screen a little closer when these open. I also think it is another great example that stats just aren't going to tell you everything. The play on Noh is partially on his stats I'm sure but there had to be more to the play for this to be just an obvious play. I think Molder would hold up pretty well in a stats matchup especially for this tournament. What it may mean is that someone actually took Noh's lack of PGA experience on these courses and forecast from his game that perhaps Pebble might be good for him. Maybe he has amateur experience here which is good. I don't know.

Okay, so there was alot of golf to be played. My rant was early. By far the two easiest winning matchups of the year Molder and Horschel for me. That was literally almost a 20 shot swing for Noh and Molder from some point in the 2nd round. However, it obviously wasn't as easy as that as Molder needed a few birdies on his back 9 in Round 3 to make it to the cut line. Otherwise, it was a loser right there. For today, Noh probably a victim of his early success in that once he wasn't in contention for the tournament he really sank after the hot start. He probably didn't want to play today while Molder emboldened by making the cut goes for a big payday. A perfect set up to blow Noh out. But the tag of +145 on that is just fantastic to go home with that cash. But the early sharps liked Noh he did look good had more game than I thought. I think John's other two bets were good bets but got a bad bite of variance. O'Hair off the charts better than expected. I want to say the year he won the Canadian open he may have been coming off Did not make cut. He's just that type of guy. Na is underrated but Stadler has been outstanding this week. I think Na might be a good guy to be on the way he's scoring in future weeks. That was a solid price on him

Regarding the Noh bet, it was disheartening to say the least with that start he had. Looking back at my notes, I had Molder as a -130 favorite after factoring in Molder's course history and Noh's excessive travel, and I, like Skeeter, played Noh at +105 early and then a lot more when he went all the way up to +145. After Noh's impressive first round, I asked myself what information do these other bettors have that I am not privy to? Was it insider knowledge from Pebble Beach (did someone see Noh striking the ball in practice rounds or Molder grimacing in pain from some kind of injury? Are the caddies pooling their money together and making bets while comparing notes on the range? Was it some misguided "whale" pounding Noh on Pinnacle that drove prices up everywhere else? I guess we will never "Noh." What we do "Noh" is that playing San Diego, Dubai, and Pebble in consecutive weeks has to take it's toll, as evidenced by Noh's collapse after round 1. He finished last of all players making the cut. FYI...Noh is the field at LA this week also.