PGA Humana Challenge

PGA Humana Challenge I really enjoyed Alf's and Dude's work in golf a few years ago. I can't really speak about the golf too much but one angle Alf liked to use was going against the previous week's winner. Henley was sensational last week but my understanding a rookie on the tour. Fears I have was that he was obviously composed and overwhelming and who knows maybe he's fantastic. Still we have to hope for some hangover this week I see he's matched up against Chris Kirk. Kirk is a pretty good golfer and did well himself LW finishing T5th. He's done all right in the Humana although he faded last year but was good in 2011 and until his fade was near the top last year. He was PK -104 against Henley. The line is now -108 but only because I bet the -104 so don't think the number is moving or something just because you see Pinnacle has changed. I'm sure if they were matched up LW Kirk would have been -200 against Henley. Clearly Henley is good. Got to figure Kirk should still be favoured over Henley in the hangover spot. Can we conclude that Henley is superstar based on the victory? If we assume it really is an upset win but we do respect his game I thnk Kirk should be at least -120 to -130. If Henley is s superstar sure I'm geting the worst of it but it is a big assumption. I haven't bet it but I see a big move on Perez vs. Mark Wilson. Wilson now +136. I always liked to fade these moves a little too much. But Wilson does well on the west coast. These are short courses and Wilson isn't a big hitter so he's not at a disadvantage here. I won't bet it---yet---but it may be worth a shot. I think Wilson did miss the cut LW and Perez top 10.

Perez won this tournament in 2009 and Wilson won LY. Wilson isn't really any good before LY here but as far as I know before the last few years he was never any good. Perez has the win and a 14th LY but nothing great in other recent years but if I go way back he finished 6th in 2003 when he really didn't have a great year. Perez might like it here. The tournament used to be 5 rounds I always recall and I couldn't tell you if they've played the exact same courses through the years. The Pro-Am part has changed too. Bottom line is the move on Perez makes sense based on his history and recent form. He has to be favoured. At what point is the value on Wilson though it has to be close at +135.

usually I avoid players off a win but did you watch Henley play last week? some of the best golf you will see, his form is just so good currently, 5th top 6 in past 5 tournaments, including 3 winners. Although he is shorter than he should be, his opening price for outright betting was still great value compared to some others. I am high on both Henley & Kirk this week so I don't really favour either player in their h2h, last years winner of the Sony Open actually backed it up in the Humana with a 2nd (Johnson Wagner) so don't discount good early form, Henley seems to have a good head on his shoulders and looks like he will have a bright future.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;56219] The tournament used to be 5 rounds I always recall and I couldn't tell you if they've played the exact same courses through the years. [/QUOTE] I'm in Vegas now but I used to live in Palm Springs up until the end of 2012 and I still maintain a membership at a large CC there (think LPGA). They did NOT play the same courses throughout the years. In the last 10 years alone there have be a variety of different changes to the clubs they played at and the courses within the clubs. The consensus is that the pros hate that (and the pro-am) and thats why this tournament rarely gets the "big" names. As someone mentioned, these are short courses (relatively speaking) so some clubs will never be returned to (Indian Wells CC) while others have been modified (PGA West). They mostly stay in La Quinta now but that may change in the future.

Cantlay -130 over Love....I know what you are thinking...you "Cant-lay" -130 against a stud like Davis Love. Well, this "stud" last week shot +10 on the pitch-n-putt course at the Sony. Love is in the purgatory stage of stinking it up on the regular tour but still too young to join the old guys. Hoffmann -120 over Gillis....I know what you're thinking...you "Can't-lay" -120 when you've never even heard of this Hoffmann (He's not the hippy Charlie), as this Hoffmann spells his name with 2 "N's". Well, I can when he's going against Gillis who also shot +10 last week on the pitch-n-putt course at the Sony.

[QUOTE=johnboy;56234]Cantlay -130 over Love....I know what you are thinking...you "Cant-lay" -130 against a stud like Davis Love. Well, this "stud" last week shot +10 on the pitch-n-putt course at the Sony. Love is in the purgatory stage of stinking it up on the regular tour but still too young to join the old guys. Hoffmann -120 over Gillis....I know what you're thinking...you "Can't-lay" -120 when you've never even heard of this Hoffmann (He's not the hippy Charlie), as this Hoffmann spells his name with 2 "N's". Well, I can when he's going against Gillis who also shot +10 last week on the pitch-n-putt course at the Sony.[/QUOTE] I like both of the picks. Going against Love is money in the bank. I'd even take some of the celebrities against Love :)

Nice start for CanLay. Gillis shoots a good round. Henley is hotter than a firecracker 7 under so far. Kirk was all right at 4 under. Have to hope for the hangover to kick in sometime while Kirk continues at least this level. Caught a break as a tried to bet Wilson I left an open offer at Matchbook looking for +157. I think the other side was the best number left on Perez but was surprised and pleased nobody took me up on it. Perez played as advertised and Wilson near the bottom. I also got onto to Garrigus vs. Haas. They're pretty close so far. I just made a small bet there. A couple of other big moves by the sharps look good. I noted Chalmers over Karlsson was a huge move and Chalmers out to a pretty big lead so far. And Stadler over Vegas. Vegas hanging in there but Stadler was -6 early. These were 10% plus moves if my odds screen is correct from the opening numbers. The topic for me is Henley. Have to watch it as a bettor. FWIW the market agreed with me on Henley this weekend but no doubt we heard the other side from twarby and really my own write up indicates he could be trouble but I felt the odds were in my favor. But if I'm wrong and it is not this weekend he crashes I think he is opportunity likely as a player to bet against next week if he's playing. Obviously have to consider who he is matched up against but can worry about that next week. What is even more interesting is that can we capitalize on Henley tomorrow or at the very least sometime this weekend? I'm not really shocked he's up there today. Got to be some people who watch this but we can use our own games as reference: They can go south real fast. Will he be overpriced tomorrow? And if he scores well tomorrow does he set up as a really good bet against on Saturday or Sunday? He had 3 63's LW and some other score not even high 60's. Today looks to be another score in the mid 60's. Maybe he's the new superstar can shoot 60's at will. I really think this guy is due for a 75. I'll just go out and say it although 73 might be the equivalent based on the ease of these courses. Henley also on Nicklaus today. That is the easiest one I think. I didn't really check the othr guys and where they shot their scores so perhaps perhaps the leads are not quite as good as I am indicating.

leaderboard will be all over the place as they play on each course, I have Henley at +5600 and he is currently around +900 favorite, but I am not that confident, but hey he is playing extremely well and its not like the other courses are hard ones. Kirk still a big chance to knock off Henley. Its useless info now but Lefty was a good fade this week, not that I did, had flu like symptoms all week and is well behind in his h2h with Snedeker. If Henley was to have another strong week this week, top 5 or so then I agree he would be a perfect fade for his next tournament as he will most likely be matched with a real good player and should be priced in that +2000 to +3000 area. Pretty hard to have b2b2b weeks like he would need, not even the best of do that these days.

Unfortunately, I didn't make the bet on Toms vs. Henley today. Sharp money bet Toms a little and he had a good round. Henley not as good as he has been of course but still carded a 69. Toms had a good round.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;56309]Unfortunately, I didn't make the bet on Toms vs. Henley today. Sharp money bet Toms a little and he had a good round. Henley not as good as he has been of course but still carded a 69. Toms had a good round.[/QUOTE] Yeah those courses are so "short" for these guys that anyone can go low out there, you just never know