Phoenix Open

Phoenix Open I found a few things that interested me but only bet one. I played Brian Gay over Robert Garrigus. This can be found as high as +160. Have to be careful here as there seems to be sharp money on Garrigus. In fact Garrigus is a guy I think I've won with in the past more than I've lost with. He is a solid golfer who flies under the radar and he's playing well. However, Gay won 2 weeks ago and I know we like to fade guys who just won but I think he took last week off and he's an established veteran out there would seem he's not as high a candidate for an emotional letdown. Gay has done well in this event and Garrigus has struggled in Phoenix. Garrigus is a long hitter and Gay is a short distance hitter. However, obviously has been in the news that Gay has lengthened off the tee with work he's done in his game and that set up the win a few weeks ago. This particular course it is my understanding doesn't favor long hitters. Anyway, I would favour Garrigus just because he's been good for an adjective but he doesn't have a great history at this course I'm sure he can surprise and play well but with Gay at +150 or more I'll say it too high a price on a guy who won a tournament a few weeks ago and has done well on this course. The move on Garrigus concerns me I'll just bet it small. Some other plays I'm looking at is Kevin Na as a dog in his matchup vs. Walker. Walker in fine form but Na not that bad and Na has 5 top 5's last 7 starts at this tournament. That is a heckuva record. Maybe Baddeley over Day. If they would bet it up another dime or so and I could get +125 I'd do it. I think the odds are fair and I kind of like him.

Going against Garrigus is a mistake. You have to remember that long-ball hitters [B]can and do[/B] tone it down for the shorter courses. Just because its a shorter course doesn't automatically mean that long hitters will lose. Garrigus almost won the Humana last year and thats the shortest course they play all year long. He adjusts well to courses that dont favor the long ball. I'd buy this one back if I were you.

Stadler (-175) over O'hair. Ohair is a total mess....he's missed the cut by 9 strokes in each of his first two starts. Easy money. Harrington +110 Piercy - Piercy missed cut by a mile last week....Padraig steady of late. Choi +105 over Singh - Look for Vijay to be distracted over drug scandal this week....expect him to be slamming his trunk come Friday to get out of Dodge. Record 0-1-1

I like that against Vijay and I was surprised to read that and I have been beat to Stadler to get that number. Good luck. No doubt CB Garrigus a good golfer. I like the price on Gay. Nothing in my notes says Garrigus will be at a disadvantage on a short course.

For future reference, guys on satellite radio said this course doesn't favor anybody, making "current form" in this event paramount. I like you call on Gay over Garrigus. I was baffled by that price as well, as I had it at as a toss-up. Very unusual to get a price of +160 on a match that should be close to even. I even checked various golf sites to see about a possible Gay injury that I didn't know about. I suppose there may be many that are fading Gay because of his win two weeks ago. Perhaps fading winners has been profitable lately, and punters are jumping on the bandwagon. But as you pointed out, I think this has to be less of a factor since he had an off-week in between events and he's "been there...done that" before.