Raising You Game, I think most bettors would do well to have a pro review their bets

Raising You Game, I think most bettors would do well to have a pro review their bets A good example of this was when betting based a few years ago, Cutter came in and said to me "YOU PLAYED TOR -130 on the FezzDAQ..........WHAT THE HELL.......this game openend -115!! Ok, it went up to -137 at Pinnacle, but how the heck do you expect to win when you get in at that crappy price!" The 'betting audit' actually likely would help you even more, in that 'knowing' someone was going to watch over you, you would be more focused to make the portfolio sharp. Fyi..........I've seen a lot of guys 'talk sharp' and worked with guys who thought they were sharp...........then I see their actual bets........and typically I AM HORRIFIED.....ABSOLUTELY HORRIFIED at what they choose to play.

I am certainly not a pro, but do take my wagering seriously. One of my "new football season" resolutions is to post my card on this site each week. I know this place can be harsh and I am willing to get killed/ridiculed at times because I know I will learn from it. Looking forward to it in fact.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;43501]A good example of this was when betting based a few years ago, Cutter came in and said to me "YOU PLAYED TOR -130 on the FezzDAQ..........WHAT THE HELL.......this game openend -115!! Ok, it went up to -137 at Pinnacle, but how the heck do you expect to win when you get in at that crappy price!" The 'betting audit' actually likely would help you even more, in that 'knowing' someone was going to watch over you, you would be more focused to make the portfolio sharp. Fyi..........I've seen a lot of guys 'talk sharp' and worked with guys who thought they were sharp...........then I see their actual bets........and typically I AM HORRIFIED.....ABSOLUTELY HORRIFIED at what they choose to play.[/QUOTE] I guess i understand your idea here but it doesn't make much sense to actually undertake. Are u taking "have a pro review a potential bet before its booked" or "have a pro look through your bet history"? Either one is not going to really help that much. So much of betting is having the outlets and the time to actually get down. If someone isn't a pro, the latter could affect things more than the former. Most people don't have 5+ online outs and the strip + access to lots of time to get down at the most perfect #s. Most non-pros aren't betting the large amounts that ML plays varying 5-10 cents is going to make a ton of difference. What r u going to say to a guy who took Bal +140 and it closed Bal +155? How does he know what its going to close at, he has 20 minutes at lunch to book his action. Seems like this would have zero chance of actually working.

Fezz, As a novice I still do not understand one thing that seems VERY important to you and that is the lines movements. Why does it matter where the line was or where the line closed?? Seems like the only relevant point is was it a good bet at the number you had available at the time. I mean if one of my shops has -120 and the rest of the world is -125 does that automatically make the -125 a bad bet or conversely the -120 a great bet?? And if I bet -120 and it goes to -130 its good and if it goes to -110 its bad??? Thanks for all your help.

If a line has moved against you, then you pass on the bet. It's not like there's only one thing to bet on at a time. The recurring theme I see here is bettors take an inferior line because it's "all they have." Bullshit. Get yourself more options or just pass on the game if your only out is a nickel higher. The road to success isn't paved with handicapping anymore. The lines are too sharp now.

That isn't true. Just because you didn't get the best line, doesn't necessarily make a given bet bad. If you rate a given game at even, any bet with odds better then even is a GOOD bet. It may not be the best bet you could have made but the line move doesn't in itself make it a bad bet. You shouldn't pass a bet that you believe is a good bet even if you didn't get the best line. If a nickel is the difference between winning and losing you need to either get better or find another line of work.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;43507]If a line has moved against you, then you pass on the bet. It's not like there's only one thing to bet on at a time. The recurring theme I see here is bettors take an inferior line because it's "all they have." Bullshit. Get yourself more options or just pass on the game if your only out is a nickel higher. The road to success isn't paved with handicapping anymore. The lines are too sharp now.[/QUOTE] All I know is, when I bet a game and the line moves against me and I win, I feel like 1 million bucks. Just consider this fact - the line is moving because the big money is moving it. Big money isn't always right. We all know that Walters and all the other syndicates are living large if they hit ~56%. That means they are wrong ~40% of the time???!! I agree w/ Fez, a large key to winning is beating the closing #s. But i don't shy away from placing a bet if the number goes against me. hELL - Fez says it's "impossible to beat 55%" & I 100% disagree, but even so if u ride w/ him, that means even the best are wrong 45% of the time. I am a small time guy compared to many, but I still make money doing this, and it's mainly from following sharp guys and taking their bets. And naturally I'm not getting the same great numbers (lay amounts for juice) as the originators but there's a very tiny % of games where it actually matters. I know - heresy! 2 many of u. I still make money though, and have fun doing it... And no, I don't have a million outs and I sometimes pay more juice than I see at pinny or some other outs. I'm not just going to sit on bets if I can't get the best # out of 25 books. You make no money on the sideline, and it's no fun neither.

You're absolutely right. But if you're not setting your own lines, creating your own power ratings etc., then how do you know when the line is no longer +EV? Passing when a line moves against you keeps you out of trouble if you're unable to do the homework a successful handicapper needs to do to win.

[QUOTE=truushot;43508]That isn't true. Just because you didn't get the best line, doesn't necessarily make a given bet bad. If you rate a given game at even, any bet with odds better then even is a GOOD bet. It may not be the best bet you could have made but the line move doesn't in itself make it a bad bet. You shouldn't pass a bet that you believe is a good bet even if you didn't get the best line. If a nickel is the difference between winning and losing you need to either get better or find another line of work.[/QUOTE] You're absolutely right. But if you're not setting your own lines, creating your own power ratings etc., then how do you know when the line is no longer +EV? Passing when a line moves against you keeps you out of trouble if you're unable to do the homework a successful handicapper needs to do to win.

[QUOTE=IceTea;43509] I am a small time guy compared to many, but I still make money doing this, and it's mainly from following sharp guys and taking their bets. And naturally I'm not getting the same great numbers (lay amounts for juice) as the originators but there's a very tiny % of games where it actually matters.[/QUOTE] The thing about your story that I don't understand is how you can still be a small time guy if you're winning. My bankroll has doubled in the 22 months I've been here (although I wonder whether I will ever actually see any of this money with everything that's gone on). You've been here just as long, and it sounds like you were winning before as well. And the compounding at hitting 60% is much higher than at 55%. How can you still be small?