Raising You Game, I think most bettors would do well to have a pro review their bets

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;43512]The thing about your story that I don't understand is how you can still be a small time guy if you're winning. My bankroll has doubled in the 22 months I've been here (although I wonder whether I will ever actually see any of this money with everything that's gone on). You've been here just as long, and it sounds like you were winning before as well. And the compounding at hitting 60% is much higher than at 55%. How can you still be small?[/QUOTE] I said I make money = not a living doing it. Even if I triple my BR, I'm still betting less than many guys here. That makes me a small time guy. I don't hit 60% myself, because I follow many guys and make some of my own bets as well. I just know from watching a lot of touts that there are some who can hit well over 55% long term. Most can't but some can. Gambling = entertainment for me and I bet what I can afford 2 bet but I win a bit and enjoy it. I assume there are big guys on here betting hundreds of thousands a quarter... maybe i'm wrong?????

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;43507]If a line has moved against you, then you pass on the bet. It's not like there's only one thing to bet on at a time. The recurring theme I see here is bettors take an inferior line because it's "all they have." Bullshit. Get yourself more options or just pass on the game if your only out is a nickel higher. The road to success isn't paved with handicapping anymore. The lines are too sharp now.[/QUOTE] So what you are saying is that if I bet a game at post every time then I have to bet against the market EVERY time because otherwise I will get the worse line. Seems like Fezz is always saying that the market is right more often than not so again I am confused. Sounds like you are saying the only time you have action is if you bet right when the line comes out and to win you must have anticipated the market. Again if I have two outs and one is -125 and the other is -120 then the -120 is automatically a good bet. What if made the game -110 then the -120 seems bad. Conversely if I made the game -200 then the -125 seems good as well??

[QUOTE=bkeiller;43514]So what you are saying is that if I bet a game at post every time then I have to bet against the market EVERY time because otherwise I will get the worse line. Seems like Fezz is always saying that the market is right more often than not so again I am confused. [/QUOTE] my take = betting at post is not betting against the market. betting against the market is betting opposite the way the number has moved. betting at post in the direction of the market means you'll get a worse line. Fez says market is right more often than not, meaning you are more likely to win betting in the same direction of the market. Does not mean you can't get a worse # and still win. Also, being "more often than not" means >50%, market still wrong >40% of the time, otherwise everyone could make a killing playing steam all day long. My advice is play what you like (if you have confidence in yourself) or play what your service likes (if u have conf in them) regardless of the market. If you start losing, u know u will have less confidence in either ur plays or theirs and can readjust. [QUOTE=bkeiller;43514] Sounds like you are saying the only time you have action is if you bet right when the line comes out and to win you must have anticipated the market. Again if I have two outs and one is -125 and the other is -120 then the -120 is automatically a good bet. What if made the game -110 then the -120 seems bad. Conversely if I made the game -200 then the -125 seems good as well?? [/QUOTE] Joel may be saying something along the lines of: "the only time you have action is if you bet right when the line comes out and to win you must have anticipated the market" but that doesn't make him right. If you are not an originator or on your computer the second the line comes out, does not mean u can't win betting sports. Think about this - when are limits at their max, and when do guys like BW or other syndicates bet the most? Hint - its not when the line comes out. And they do allright... The -120 does not mean its a "good bet", it means u got a better number there than elsewhere. Don't worry so much about the screen in that respect. You'll psyche yourself out. If you make it -200 and it's -125, then it could be a good bet, assuming u are right and the market is not. Big differences btwn a good number and a good bet. And thats not even getting into being on the correct side (vs. right side losers) and all other variance.

If I make a game -8, and it's -5, it's a good bet, even if it opened -4. If someone tells me there is value at -5, and the line is -5', I pass. Do you see the difference?

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;43516]If I make a game -8, and it's -5, it's a good bet, even if it opened -4. If someone tells me there is value at -5, and the line is -5', I pass. Do you see the difference?[/QUOTE] True - but u also are assuming u have good numbers. Many cappers don't know how good their numbers are.

if there is value at 5 you should bet it. what you said makes no sense to me.

Have to disagree. -115 is a tremendous bet. -130 is at least a tiny advantage and with handicapping if that is the side you want a decent bet. Heck -125 is great. To me, that is the nickel truushot is talking about. Hate to use the board's play on Dallas +4.5 tonight as an example but hey we're all trying to raise our game right? 1. If you bet +4.5-110 on Dallas, you need to come in for extra homework all week. Swap into that -130 on the baseball game you know nothing about immediately if one can trade bets. 2. If you bet +4.5 reduced juice, getting better but you still have a lousy bet. You'd be better off with -130 in that baseball game nobody knows anything about for a one cent advantage. But at least you tried. Do some extra work at home, enhance your handicapping models and prediction of where money will flow. 3. You're betting +5 on this game. Nice work. Glad to see you're working so hard. You knew Dallas was the right side but +4.5 just isn't going to cut it when you're trying to really win at this. As of 141 pacific you still have a lousy bet but you know maybe with Fezzik on this side we give a little bonus to this side that the world isn't smart enough to know. You don't have to swap your bet out to get that -130 on the baseball game we don't know anything about...but you know what? A+ if you recognize you should. 4. Still waiting for that number that makes me not want -130 on the baseball game nobody knows anything about without giving any credit to handicapping. Maybe it will bounce back and +5 will be the solid bet on this game.

Why TOR -130 sucks when Pinny has it -137 1 hour to post, if it opened -115 IMO, (maybe more so in Football), that steam line moves like this pendulum too far, and have buyback at the end. If Pinny HAD dealt TOR -137/+131 all day long, long TOR -130 sure looks ok to me. BUT............if the line STARTED TOR -115, and 1 hour to post is TOR -137/+131 and you asked me what a good 'no vig' line on the game was, instead of saying "-134/+134" I would lean heavily to ""-131/+131". That -130 that looks so good likely isn'tj, AND a key thing, the line MOST LIKELY will erode BACK given the line move. Most early steam moves like this don't peak at post, but 36 minutes to post.