RBC Canadian Open and...

RBC Canadian Open and... [B]RBC Canadian Open[/B] Ryan Moore -130 vs Anthony Kim I have no doubts that A.K. will be a Top 20 player in the world again, he has a fabulous swing and can putt the eyes out of the hole and can go low on any course. However, just one good showing in the past 4 months was last week at the British Open. I'm not that quick to put him back in the upper class just yet. His best finish since the Masters was a T54. The Canadian Open was last held at the Shaunessy GC in 2005. Moore was the runner-up then. The greens are small and the rough is high, this is a very difficult test. Moore will have much support from nearby home of Washington State. The weather forecast calls for possible rain everyday in the Vancouver area. [B]British Senior Open[/B] Tom Watson -130 vs. Bernhard Langer Watson is the ultimate bad weather golfer and he will compete for the title here in the British Senior. He had an excellent week last week as you know, but what I enjoyed most about watching him play was his attitude and determination. Langer is the defending champion but he has issues.....[B] "The club's not rusty -- I'm the one that's rusty." -- Bernhard Langer refers to the 2-iron he used at last week's British Open for the first time in two years. Langer, who has played very little golf in the last four months after undergoing thumb surgery, missed the cut last week in The Open Championship. [I][/I][/B]

More difficult to get Alf's numbers the past few weeks. I played Ryan Moore over Hunter Mahan +105 at the Greek but bet less than the maximum so the number is still there. I thought this was good value. Moore scores well on the fantasy rankings I follow for this week and did well on this particular course in 2005. AK actually scores fairly well on the fantasy rankings here. I wouldn't play him vs. Moore yet but if the line goes much higher I will take my chances on AK. I ended up on Phil last week vs. Watney and obviously that worked out well. I don't want to make a habit of betting vs. Alf but if I could get +140 on AK and maybe even +130 I think I'll grab it. Otherwise, I'll hope this comes back a bit and try to get on Moore as well. I took John Rollins over Streelman +105. Rollins has played well this year especially lately. These golfers appear pretty even and I read that the course somewhat fits Rollins. I'm not sure why Jim Furyk is such a heavy favourite over Geoff Ogilvy. I put a small bet on Ogilvy and would have bet more but I'm not sure where his game really is now. Furyk has won this tournament a few times but not on this particular course. He really hasn't played well all year. I'm sort of late as Ogilvy was +140 at one point and I bet +130. It is a small bet.

Major disaster last week at British as the picks may have been marginal, but the unfortunate tee times crushed me. On to Vancouver and we get Shaunessy, which is a finesse course with Poa Annua greens. The veterans and many of the west coast guys love these greens. [B]All plays for 0.75%[/B] 7010) Brian "Mr Finesse" Gay -105 vs Colleyville "bermuda/10 on the stimpmeter" CC Campbell. 7021) B Adams -111 vs Old Man Tommy Pernice II. 7026) Nikky OHern +100 vs Colleyville Chalmers. 7049) Luke Donald -130 vs Ricky Bobby Fowler. maybe more later... Good Luck

add 1 more play 7038) Stevie "hoser from Canada eh" Ames -111 vs Flash in the pan "Shrek" Oysterhoozen. Good Luck

I placed a bet on AK vs. Hunter Mahan at +156. That +140 for AK against Moore is available but I do think Alf has the right play and I'd rather be on Moore. At the same time, it might be a fluke how AK played last week but I'll take a shot at him. Mahan isn't playing his best golf recently from what I can tell. Now I got Moore and AK against Mahan. Can't say I love betting against Mahan. Although I'd like to bet Moore against AK at less odds than are currently out there these current odds are telling you that there may even be more room for Moore to go up against AK if Mahan is this high. Moore and Mahan would be about even at 5 Dimes for a tournament matchup I would think. They don't have one but they have a 1st round matchup and Moore is -115 vs. Mahan so I can't see why Mahan is even further favoured over AK than Moore would be. From my fantasy review, Alf's pick, past history, current form I think Moore should be favoured over Mahan even if it is only -115 or something in that area. I also bet Brian Gay against Paul Casey at -117 at 5 Dimes. Pinnacle has it a penny cheaper I think. I'm basing this on Dude's pick vs. Campbell and Campbell scores pretty well in my fantasy review. But Gay scores better in it. I also read that this course shapes up well for Gay in that his fault of being a short hitter won't be exposed here. I also saw Gay -120 over Levin at the Greek. Levin scores not bad on this for fantasy so it seems Gay is agreed to be favoured over a few guys who themselves are no slouches. Casey is no slouch that is for sure but he hasn't played well recently and that stretch is a few months. I also read he has a toe problem? He doesn't seem like someone I'd want to back this week although he's accomplished career wise but current form seems way off so I went with Gay over Casey. I also made a bet to win on David Hearn. He's about 225:1 and is a Canadian golfer. He's played well recently on the tour and he drives the ball straight which the analysts are saying really matters at this course. He'll have an emotional edge perhaps or a letdown being at home perhaps too. I don't know how well he knows the greens but his name has popped up a few times in my reading of a guy to watch so it is not really my idea. I can site the guy at the PGA site who likes him as a dark horse this week probably being the main one.

You have to love the syndicates/groups that play these LOL In case U did not notice who they are on... 7005) Hunter 7012) Casey 7014) Ogilvy 7016) Levin 7020) Steele 7021) Adams 7024) Na 7028) 2 gloves Gainey 7030) Kooch 7032) Steele 7034) Fat Pat 7036) Keegan B 7046) The Sheep Moore 7047) Koochey 7049) #1 player in world, awesome headfake LOL

AK shoots 81 and cannot be trusted right now at any price.

You nailed it. I see he got DQ'd in the standings. Come on Alf....he had you scared after that 69 yesterday. LOL

...after round one we were way behind in both matchups, no question,....but there is a fine line betting for value and or betting to win. If AK was +200 over Mahan or Moore, I still would not have played it, chasing good money for bad IMO, no thanks, I stopped making lines on golf matchups back in the 90's.....there are many punters out there that insist on betting value in any spot, you see this now more than ever in horse racing, if a nag opens 4-1 and then is 9-1 they pile the bets in looking for value. Really? Why do you think he went off at 9-1? Think about it. There are allot of losing value bets out there and they add up fast... Handicap and find the winner first, the right side of the matchup or team, get the best number or price on it and bet it....that's my advice.

I understand what Alf is saying here, especially in referring to AK. However, Skeeter brings up a great example in his selection of G Ogilvy +130 over Furyk. Furyk's game is a complete mess now, and Ogilvy is coming around slowly but surely after his injury. I made the line pick'em (-105) each way. So getting +140, (line was gone after we bet it, so did not post it) is a great bet and where I disagree with Alf in making lines. Making a line IMO is a great tool and reference. I will make a line on every matchup, but some of them are what I call 'firmer lines' than others. Again, I agree with the AK example for what it is, and also would not have bet AK at +200, even though I had him +160. Line opened Moore -125 and closed -160, fwiw.