Ryan Boxer's Fight Record (of sharp football analysis) I post in the NFL forum but in one thread some discussion was made between several posters and me about sharp football analysis, which is made up of 2 guys. Sharp does NFL and in my humble opinion, there is no one better in NFL totals. This new guy joined the site last year who is a "fight insider" called Ryan Boxer. I pretty much buy everything that they have sold, as I do for a few other services out there. I believe in paying the guys who show they deserve it so that I don't have to handicap the games.
I said I'd post the "juice" he lays on the fights so we can have a discussion.
He has made 31 investment bets, as they call them (vs. action bets) and he's 27-4 on these wagers. Sometimes he lays a lot of juice, most of the time it's a medium amount, and sometimes it's a dog. I went back through all the emails and here is what he has laid:
-170
+100
+120
+280
-250
-109
-500
-175
-260
-1000
-240
-400
-220
-440
-315
-290
-300
+115
+180
-240
-195
-380
-275
-350
-260
by my math this averages to an average juice of -276. Since he joined sharp's site in late October, he's "up" almost 30 units, just over 29 overall, by my math.
He gives out action bets on the cards too, these are hit and miss. By my count, for his last 3 fights he has 11 action fights for a record of 4-7. He's taken 6 dogs and 5 favs in those action fights. So I guess these are more of "longshot" type plays and they are for significantly less of the bankroll.
truushot asked for this so here it is. Feel free to comment on it as you guys see fit. I've made solid money on him just making straight bets but I think I'll take truushot's strategy and start parlaying some of them as well to improve the odds - sorry it took so long I had to flip through notebooks and emails to find all of them, but i told u I'd post them so here they are!!!!
As for discussion - I tried him out and so far so good as I said. Sometimes this much juice scares me, but the more I see fight odds, the more I realize that -200 or -300 is not that abnormal for main event type fights and some undercards are much higher juice. Of course, if he was picking more underdogs I'm sure his record would be less than 27-4. So far I've been pretty amazed by A his record and B his units won. Maybe you guys disagree and think it's easy to get this type of record and units won averaging -276 favs in boxing/MMA? I don't know, but I'm interested to hear your take on it. Is it easier to win high % and high unites in fights than other sports? Seems like either this guy is very, very good, or fights are easier than football/basketball?
