Santa Anita play for Saturday (3/12)

Santa Anita play for Saturday (3/12) I think i have a good one for tomorrow; i've been waiting for this filly to run back for several weeks now. I was planning to post in the morning like i usually do, but unfortunately Brad Free had to tell the entire world in his DRF analysis, so i might as well do it now. Here's what i wrote about her in my "Horses to Watch" thread on HRT about a month ago. Pink Blanket (2/4 @ SA, Race 4) Hugely impressive performance by this first-time starter yesterday. He completely blew the start (looked like he hit the side of the gate coming out) to be off several lengths last, but then rushed up almost immediately to pass the entire herd and challenge the loose frontrunner who had gotten clear. Put that one away into the stretch and started to open up, while i basically just sat there in amazement, thinking holy-shit, he's gonna win this race anyway! It wasn't to be though, as a Kory Owens firster came and got him late, but he was well-clear for second and obviously would've won with ease if not for the starting gate mishap. Today's race was 5 1/2 furlongs, i'd like to see him stay short next time, but this horse can run. Figures tough to stop when run back, quite possibly on a class-jump (this one was a MCL75). I guess i must've overlooked the fact that he's actually a she, but anyway, she's entered in tomorrow's first race @ 3/1 ml. Not the morning line favorite either, which is nice. Also, something i didn't know at the time, she was actually claimed out of her debut, which is always an extemely positive sign. Especially when the trainer claims the horse for HIMSELF, as is the case here. Impossible not to like this one.

The Odds are 2/4?

2/4 was the date of the write up on Santa Anita race 4. Horse is in race 1 today.

Very disappointing effort by Pink Blanket. They had some trouble with her at the gate, then she blew the break again. Came running on the turn and looked poised to maybe win it, but flattened out badly thereafter. Might have injured herself, who knows. Here's one i like in the feature, at a big price. Good luck to all (and especially me): Santa Anita - Race 8 #7 Bench Points (8/1 ml) Speaking of overlays. As talented as this field is, you can argue that none of them have looked any better than Bench Points has, as this undefeated gelding has simply been a terror in the lane throughout his short career. His first three all came in state-bred 2yo events, which i guess is why we're getting a big price here (that, and his low-profile connections), but he came off the long layoff last month and simply torched Da Ruler late, a horse that you may notice happened to beat the much-hyped Albergatti (also entered here) in their common debut race. There's also a ton of early speed in here, which sets it up beautifully for this guy's powerful late run. Unfortunately, this will be Bench Points' first start around two turns, so we really don't know if he'll show the same kind of late kick here that he does in the shorter races, but he's bred to route top-and-bottom, and the way he's able to relax early in his races seems to indicate that he'll stretch out well (you might compare him to Dialed In, in fact). Big value any way you look at it.

Bench Points ran third @ 8/1. Huge performance by the winner Premier Pegasus.

Future pool #2 closes in 25 minutes, who do you like at these prices DC? I know you must have an opinion. I'm in a good mood - with bullets to fire. Had that bomber at Tampa Bay and the other one at Santa Anita.

You had the Tampa Bay Derby winner??? Wow, congrats! Monster payout on that one. I really don't like anyone at the current pari-mutuel Derby prices. If i was going to take a stab with any of them, i might go with Machen (currently 58/1). He flattened out late in the Risen Star, but is eligible to improve going forward, and i don't think there's any question he has some talent. Could jump squarely into the Derby picture with a big performance in the Louisiana Derby. I still think 58/1 is an underlay right now, but it has the potential to turn into a very good price. Most of my interest in this round of the KDFW was on Kathmanblu in the Oaks. She clearly deserved to be the favorite, i thought, but for some reason was listed as onlt the 5th-choice on the morning line. IT hasn't turned out the way i was hoping though, as she's currently the 9/2 favorite in the wagering. So i can't do anything there.

I'm not so much betting "on" my horse as I am betting "against" an underpriced favorite. Bretheren certainly should have been the favorite, but was underpriced at 1-2 odds IMO. At that point, I made wagers on 5 other horses. Ironically, I also had the second place horse, but no exacta ticket, as I'm not a big gimmick player. In these big stakes races, I figure every horse is "ready." When the public gets carried away backing a favorite, it creates some tremendous value. I'm not a great horse handicapper, but this angle has made me a nice profit. Especially last year, as there were some big prices in many of the Grade 1 races.

I use this as a basic strategy as well.

After a good day like yesterday, I'll have friends ask - "Why didn't you tell me?" I'll try to explain that even I don't know who I'm betting until a few minutes before post. Sometimes, they still don't understand. These are same kind of people who send Bretheren off at 1-2.