Sat April 30th UFC 129 Well MMA fans and handicappers/bettors this is the fight card we have been waiting for. UFC 129, Saturday from Toronto, Ontario and I have put in plenty of hours watching tape, pouring over the numbers and most importantly evaluating who they have fought against won or lost............here-we-go, from bottom to top:
Pablo Garza +150 vs. Yves Jabouin
Garza is a slow starter, takes his time and moves patiently. He is the younger fighter with the better record at 11-1 vs. 14-6. Jabouin is from the WEC, no shame in that, but other than Mark Hominick, the Haitian has fought poor competition and he'll have his hands full when battling Garza who at 6' 1" vs 5' 6", Garza is a giant at 145 pounds.
Ivan Menjivar -160 vs. Charlie Valencia
Menjivar is making his UFC debut. He has fast hands and we look for an early finish, because his opponent who is 36 years old vs. 29 is here for a paycheck. Valencia has lost to every decent fighter that has come up against him, Cruz, Bowels, Torres and a few others. He hasn't fought since Sept of LY and all but one were WEC contests.
Rory McDonald -110 vs. Nate Diaz
This is Nate Diaz not Nick, huge difference.
Diaz lost recently to Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision. We bet on Kim in that fight and neither guy showed any skills or real talent to move up the ladder. Diaz also has a loss to overrated Joe Stevenson.
McDonald is a young Canadian strappin lad of 21 years old. At 10-1 he has much to show the sold-out Rogers Center crowd. An angle we always look at deeper is losses. Diaz has 6 losses and we notice that fighters tend to coast when dominated, or behind in rounds rather than give it all they have and try anything to get a K.O or submission. I don't see Diaz doing either in this fight.
Ben Henderson -115 vs. Mark Bocek
Bocek is from Toronto, he'll have the home crowd edge and we've seen many fighters perform way over their heads and talent and get a win on home soil in different countries/cities all over the world. But, we know Bocek, he has no power, no real jujitsu or grappling skills, he can submit subpar talent. In his last fight against Dustin Hazelett, we bet on Hazelett and he gave up after 20 seconds into the fight and has now retired from MMA altogether. Henderson will be Bocek's toughest opponent by far, yes tougher than Jim Miller.
Henderson is the younger (27 vs. 29) fighter with the better record (12-1 vs 9-3) and has fought tougher opponents in the WEC like Anthony Pettis and Cowboy Cerone. Henderson has unlimited cardio, a great chin and will wrestle you for 3 rounds until you quit.
I thought Henderson would open -170 and climb to -200.
Lyoto Machida -325 vs Randy Couture
Couture has said to the world this is his last fight and I believe it. He is making big chunks of money with his gym's opening all over the country, training fighters and spending quality time with his kids and family. Sounds like retirement to me.
Machida is coming off B2B loses, but was robbed in his last loss a split decision to Rampage Jackson, who said after the fight to the crowd that Machida won the fight. Regardless, Machida's wins over Shogun Rua and Rashad Evans is far and away better than anything Couture has done in the Octagon in quite some time. Beating boxer James Toney was a joke and Mark Coleman before that as well. It's a swan song pay day and then off to the UFC Hall of Fame. (I stand corrected he is already in the UFC HOF.)
Jose Aldo -425 vs. Mark Hominick
Jose Aldo is the best MMA fighter I have ever seen. He'll chop you down like a tree and then go to work on you.
Hominick has never seen anything close to Aldo and his split decision win to Leonard Garcia is embarrassing. He has 8 losses to boot and is given this fight because the division is weak and he is from Ontario.
I'm going to parlay this fight with GSP.
George St. Pierre -390 vs Jake Shields
The Great Jake Shields has won 15 fights in a row, most of them against out of shape cab drivers IMO. If you saw his last fight vs. Martin Kampmann you would run to the windows and bet GSP. ( you can buy the replay @ UFC.com for $3.95) Shields escaped with a split decision.
I'll say it again. The younger fighter, with the better record and also GSP will have the entire crowd and country of Canada supporting him and giving him an extra boost to finish off Shields with constant stand-up pressure.
GSP and Jose Aldo, 2 of the 3 best pound for pound fighters (you have to throw in Anderson Silva) B2B on the fight card, and I expect both to win convincingly.
