Sat UFC TUF 13 Finale

Sat UFC TUF 13 Finale This is the Ultimate Fighter Show Finale card at the Palms and features a few other UFC fights, all are shown free on Spike TV Sat night. I will not make it to the weigh in but managed to talk to a buddy who is an executive director of the TUF series and he saw all the fights live in person. He really likes Tony Fergusson as well as I do, stating that Ramsey Nijem is slow, a nut case/head case, exposes himself to get hit very easily, lacks significant power and likes the more seasoned/pollished Fergusson to win. Anthony Pettis -200 vs Clay Guida Other than the show Finale bout this is the main event and Pettis has been very patient waiting for his chance to break into the UFC after winning the WEC belt with the Flying Leg kick vs. Ben Henderson.....and I will say right here that even though the flying kick gave Pettis much maligned status, that fight and the caliber of fighters that Pettis has fought is massively better than the bums Guida has beaten, Come ON, Taka Gomi, Rafael dos Anjos, Shannon Gugerty??? Who?? What?? Then prior to that loses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez, then a loss to Nate (not Nick) Diaz. Love Guida's heart but Pettis is 5x better than anyone he has fought to date, make it 10x. Yes, Guida has been working with coach Greg Jackson and his huge stable, but skill is skill and I've learned that 90% of all MMA/UFC/Strikeforce/Belator/ etc fighters lack any real fighting talent or skill, strength rarely comes into play, the 10% that do are guys like Jon Jones, Jose Aldo, Fedor, Spider Silva etc, sure we could name all the greats, but this is the TALENT AND SKILL that I see out of Pettis and not just from his fight with Ben Henderson. The guy uses his legs 200x better than Guida who will try and take this down to the ground if it doesn't happen like Matt Hamill couldn't even get one take down vs Rampage, Pettis wins easy. Tony Ferguson -115 vs Ramsey Nijem The TUF 13 series was boring to say the least and I do not see any real talent coming out of this group of fighters. But at least Ferguson has been trained properly to box, keeps his chin down, and I just found out the guy was a NCWA national wrestling champion, and we rarely got to see him on the mat working his ground and pound. Ramsey "the stripper" is still too young at 22, a bit of a nut case, 4-1 record, (why don't they ad their TUF record in?) and he always looked out of shape to me and gassed after one round in his TUF fights, nothing special IMO and should lose by a decision or KO. Josh Grispi -360 vs George Roop No contest here. 22, young and fast, moving up the UFC ladder, Grispi's record of 14-2 vs Roop at 11-8 looks like a fill-in and payday opponent. When your opponent has 8 loses or at least 4 more that the other guy, to me that is an huge red flag and go against situation. Grispi beat Mark Hominick, who you will recall took Jose Aldo to 5 rounds. Roop obviously lost to Hominick and a draw vs Leonard Garcia is embarrassing. We'll get to the windows for sure with Grispi but haven't decided if we are going to parlay or play this one straight-up.
gonna parley the golf winnings into ferguson, my local has him at even $$$.
The opening number that I saw on Fergusson was +110 at 5 Dimes.
I'll have my write up likely tomorrow morning. I'm in agreement on the Ferguson fight. I've watched all the fights and Nijem could win a round on the ground. He is so wild with his punches and lacks wrist control against the cage that I see this clearly for Ferguson with his patient and accurate strikes. Fight is likely to be wild at the beginning but Ferguson will settle in and get it done. Roop rhymes with what? You get the idea. I'm still leaning Pettis. Guida just isn't special and Pettis has displayed good wrist control against the cage. My worry is that most guys struggle the first time under the bright lights of the UFC.

Just watched the weigh in on the Internet, Pettis looked a little thin, but very confident vs the "Energizer Bunny"...Dan Downes looked like a white ghost who is trying out for the Junior Varsity team, his opponent Jeremy Stephens is -350 and cost me money in the past, but Downes may not be able to beat a Belator feather-weight.
I finally just got a chance to watch the weigh-ins. As much as I like Guida's relentless come forward style I have finally come around and see a Pettis win in this fight. I definitely like Fergusson over Ramsey. I saw the +110 earlier today at 5Dimes I am pissed at myself for not jumping on it. He will be quicker and his striking is far superior to Ramsey's. I don't see Ramsey controlling this fight on the ground which he'll have to do to win in my opinion. Grispi did not look good in his last fight but he looked great at the weigh in and Roop is going to pat for his last poor performance tomorrow night. Here is what I have going so far. More tomorrow. 6/4/11 11:00pm Boxing Fighting 502 Julio Cesar Chavez Jr -220* vs Sebastian Zbik 6/4/11 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Tony Ferguson -120* vs Ramsey Nijem 6/4/11 9:10pm UFC Fighting 1502 Chuck Oneil -175* vs Chris Cope 6/4/11 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Jeremy Stephens -330* vs Danny Downes 6/4/11 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Josh Grispi -375* vs George Roop 2.5 units to profit 14.791 units.
July 2nd, Cruz vs. Faber. I had to pop Cruz to win 2 units. I simply don't think that either fighter is the same as the last time they fought. Faber is on the fade and Cruz has become simply dominating.
Cruz is like watching a guy on a pogo stick the way he bounces around and moves. Difficult style to fight against. Cruz is 6 years his junior and I too see him revenging his only defeat. Pinny has Cruz at -118 and 5Dimes has him at -125.
Ferguson is even money at The Greek.