Some UFC lines

Some UFC lines UFC 128 1101 Jon Jones -200 1102 Mauricio Rua +170 1201 Eddie Wineland +325 1202 Urijah Faber -475 1301 Kamal Shalorus +165 1302 Jim Miller -215 1401 Yoshihiro Akiyama +245 1402 Nate Marquardt -290 1501 Brendan Schaub -290 1502 Mirko Filipovic +210

Wow, Jones is a 2 to 1 favorite over Shogun. I know the kid has unbelievable talent and is so unorthodoxed that putting a game plan together against him is difficult. I just don't see him as a 2 to 1 favorite unless Shogun is not healthy again. And is Schaub that much improved to warrant a 3 to 1 favourite or has Crocop just diminished that much that he is no longer a threat? Good calls by the way truushot last weekend in boxing.

[QUOTE=Hicksey;40477]Wow, Jones is a 2 to 1 favorite over Shogun. I know the kid has unbelievable talent and is so unorthodoxed that putting a game plan together against him is difficult. I just don't see him as a 2 to 1 favorite unless Shogun is not healthy again. And is Schaub that much improved to warrant a 3 to 1 favourite or has Crocop just diminished that much that he is no longer a threat? Good calls by the way truushot last weekend in boxing.[/QUOTE] Thank you. I've bet Jones straight for 2 units but the line hasn't moved in about 2 weeks. I'll likely buy back and if that line doesn't move further to Jones the Book is taking a position. The public lives Jones. Rua's leg kicks are scary, Jones could be in deep deep water. Faber should win this fight but Wineland is a former champ as well. I never watched WEC so I know little of Windland though I have a replay of one of his to watch tonight. Jim Miller at 2 to 1 is a tough bet. Shalorus is a former elite level wrestler and is very strong as well. Miller will struggle getting the take down and Shalorus has a lot of power though he's highly unskilled in the fights I've seen. Miller is desperate to win to get his title shot and is VERY well coached. Shalorus fades, I think Miller if he can survive the bombs wins with the ground and pound or a submission. I'm looking for more video of Shalorus. Akiyama is fading and has little skill for UFC though he has a great chin but weak cardio. Marquardt should dominate. Akiyama wants to stand yet doesn't throw enough punches and very few leg kicks. Schaub can be KO'd, but Cro Cop is faded and doesn't even throw kicks hardly anymore. Schaub's ground game is supposed to be good, so Cro Cop won't kick in this fight either fearing the take down. Schaub isn't a power puncher, this likely goes the distance with a wide decision win for Schaub. Price does seem high though. I've viewed every UFC fight since UFC100 for all of these fighters. Most of the former WEC guys are a bit of a blank to me so far. UFC.com has all the fighters listed and the one thing I fight very useful is the breakdown on the TD's. It really tells the truth. Look at Jim Miller's record on this. Everyone talks about his ground game, yet he has 2 takedowns in his last five fights. Most of 10 rounds. He had 16 takedown in the previous 4 fights. He obviously was told by Dana White or Dana's guys that he has to be more exciting or he would never get a championship fight. He's trying but it hasn't been all that pretty. If he stands with Shalorus he could easily lose.

[QUOTE=truushot;40478]Thank you. UFC.com has all the fighters listed and the one thing I fight very useful is the breakdown on the TD's. It really tells the truth. Look at Jim Miller's record on this. Everyone talks about his ground game, yet he has 2 takedowns in his last five fights. Most of 10 rounds. He had 16 takedown in the previous 4 fights. He obviously was told by Dana White or Dana's guys that he has to be more exciting or he would never get a championship fight. He's trying but it hasn't been all that pretty. If he stands with Shalorus he could easily lose.[/QUOTE] So on the UFC site, what does it mean when it says for Dan Miller for example; 25% striking, 30% takrdowns and 45% submissions? Is it also saying Miller attempted 504 strikes in his UFC fights and connected on 153 (30%)? Finally, what is the 102, 12 and 39 represent for "Types of Successful Strikes"? Thanks!!

[QUOTE=Hicksey;40480]So on the UFC site, what does it mean when it says for Dan Miller for example; 25% striking, 30% takrdowns and 45% submissions? Is it also saying Miller attempted 504 strikes in his UFC fights and connected on 153 (30%)? Finally, what is the 102, 12 and 39 represent for "Types of Successful Strikes"? Thanks!![/QUOTE] Maybe someone that uses those stats can speak better to them, I don't pay attention to the striking part of it. I do look at the TD defense stat but it has to be in conjunction with the fighters fought and the number of attempts against. The UFC often pits similar fighters against one another. I suppose that is an attempt to make the matches more exciting. (Obviously when you get to title fights and eliminators this doesn't hold true.) So often we get the same guy that is a striker always fighting other strikers. Grapplers always fighting other grapplers. This hopefully, from the UFC's perspective, leads to better matches. The UFC wants competitive matches. The striking is likely Standing, Clinch and Ground. Like I said, I don't think it matters all that much. CompuBox/CompuStrike are notoriously inaccurate. Also missed strikes can be for all sorts of reasons. A guy who feints a lot probably has a lower percentage of landed strikes. The integration of the WEC fighters will make the next 6 months to a year difficult on bettors. The UFC controls all of the fights, and most fighters do not get a lot of options on who they will fight and when. This can be good and bad at the same time. Good for the guys Dana White likes and bad for the ones he doesn't. If you aren't an exciting fighter, a hated/loved fighter that has been around and done a "solid" for White you will get what they give you. Look at the Lytle shit last go around. He gets a bonus for a shit fight because they absolutely NEEDED him to fight. He wasn't the headline but he does have a quality fan base. He may have been part of the determining factor of 1000's of people ordering the PPV or not. The card was weak, they certainly didn't need it any weaker. He did a solid for UFC and he got rewarded. He should never have fought not having been able to run in a month. My friend who was a HUGE UFC fan and still has interest told me (after Lytle cost me to much) that be careful to pay attention to the motivation for the fight. Also hidden injuries are troublesome. I still remember my dinner coming up when Penn came out the first time against Edgar with a huge knee wrap. I was like WTF!! but of course the action was closed and I couldn't jump off! That shit just doesn't happen in Boxing to often.

I was reading some posts about MMA gambling on mmajunkie, I find out that the Cro Cop fight opened even money. Within 10 minutes the line is -300 for Schaub. WOW!! I think that Schaub wins the fight but how the hell can I bet him at that price? I may have to rethink the value bet or have to figure out how to get the lines when they open.

where did he open EVEN?

It seems at 5dimes from the conversation I was following.