Sunday total I played Car/Atl over 6 (-115).
This play is based primarily on goaltending and scheduling dynamics. Since both teams played yesterday, we are most likely getting Legace and Pavalec in net today (game starts at 2pm PST).Legace is a journeyman goalie who was brought in when Cam Ward went down.In his one start versus Atlanta, he allowed 5 goals. Pavalec is the "king of overs" when he starts.The over has cashed in 23 of his 29 starts and the over is 14-3 in his home starts.
When Atlanta plays with no rest, the over is 7-2.They are also 18-3 over the total when favored by less than -150.Conversely, the Hurricanes are 18-7 "over" when installed as a dog. Carolina is tied for first in the NHL with the most power play chances per game. Atlanta allows the second most SOG's in the league and has the 27th ranked scoring defense.
These teams have already met three times this season.Each of the games easily went over the total with a combined 25 goals being scored. The series has seen 7 of the 8 games eclipse the posted total when the contest was played in Atlanta.
I was expecting the books to post a total of 6.5 on this matchup.In my opinion, there is value on the over 6.0.
Good luck,
charliej
