Johnson vs Faaloloto
Faloloto has had 3 MMA fights. He trains with Leben's team. Johnson is a good wrestler. I cannot see how Faaloloto wins this fight. Johnson isn't all that good but he's better and more experienced then Faaloloto. Johnson has trained with Greg Jackson and the time off after the Ultimate Fighter can only help him.
I parlayed Johnson as he's -500 or worse.
R. Lamas vs Grice
Two low level guys both dropping to 145. Lamas's first fight in the UFC, Grice's first in about 2 years. I think Lamas is better but I'll pass.
Lentz vs Oliveira
Lentz is a wrestler and not much else though he was better on his feet last time out. Oliveira has good subs and is a very good athlete with a varied and exciting attacking style. It is obvious that the UFC guys don't like Lentz's style of wall and stall and lay and pray. That being said, I think he wins this fight. Oliveira for all the variety of strikes isn't very strong. Lentz drags him to the ground and likely wins a decision.
D. Roberts vs Attonito
Last time out Roberts got embarrassed by Patrick. The story is was he was very ill before the fight. It was obvious he gassed very quickly in the fight. The question is was his gassing out from the illness or because he has poor cardio. I think he really does have poor cardio. All that being said, Attonito isn't all that good. He's looks like a good wrestler but he's been out wrestled by subpar guys. Almost EVERYONE is on Roberts, yet the line is basically even. I like Roberts but won't bet this fight.
Lauzon vs Warburton
Warburton is just a guy with poor cardio, Lauzon is a much more skilled guy with poor cardio. Warburton seems to want to wrestle even though he is from England. He trains out of Wolfslair. I read a guy that trains a bit there and he's clearly on Lauzon.
Lauzon, if he's learned from going out to hard, wins this fight easily. I've parlayed Lauzon.
Stevenson vs Vazquez
Let me get this out of the way, THIS AHOLE has cost me probably the most money betting UFC. I hate him, I hate his bouncing around style. All it does is waste energy and it doesn't allow you to be prepared to strike. That being said he's just better then Vazquez. I'm passing the fight but I just don't think that Vazquez is all that good. This is his first fight under the bright lights and he's now 35.
Gamburyan vs Griffin
If Gamburyan can get this fight to the ground and keep Griffin down he could win this fight. I don't think it will be all that easy to do. Griffin is the more technical striker and he looked good at the weigh in. Gamburyan is a crude striker and I guess could land an over hand right or two but Griffin has competently fought better fighters. Yes Gamburyan lost badly to Aldo but he was destroyed in that fight. Gamburyan did beat M. Brown. Who hasn't over the last few years. I'm not on this fight and I do think that the line is a bit to high, but I do think that Griffin is better.
Mitrione vs Morecraft
Morecraft is a giant but he won't have a reach advantage in this fight as Mitrione has gorilla long arms. Morecraft is better on the ground and has very good ground and pound. Both fighters have a limited record though Morecraft has twice as many fights. Mitrione a former NFL player is a very good athlete. Has good footwork and has consistently shown improve as his short career has moved along. I like Mitrione in this fight but guys I read and Alf like Morecraft. Some of them REALLY like Morecraft. I'll pass the fight. Money is now showing on Morecraft.
Howard vs Brown
Everything points to Howard in this fight. He's the harder striker and the better athlete. Brown has a big size advantage in this fight. AT -250 for Brown I'll pass.
Story vs Brenneman
Marquardt failed his physical. It wasn't, from what I've read, a weight cutting issue. He either hid a bad injury or this is drug related.
Brenneman was scheduled to face TJ Grant but that fight was canceled a few weeks ago do to an Injury. Brenneman steps in with 1 days notice. He didn't look like he struggled with the weight.
Story isn't a bright guy, so I don't think that the change in opponent with effect him mentally. He'll be bigger and stronger in this fight. Brenneman is an experienced guy but I'm pretty sure he knows he's cannon fodder in this fight. I wasn't big on Story against Marquardt, but against Brenneman, even at -500 he's a good bet. I parlayed Story.
Kongo vs Barry
Barry was heavier at the weigh in then I ever recall. He was flabby last time out and was even flabbier this time. I truly don't think that he takes the sport all that seriously. Kongo's no spring chicken but he has almost a 10 inch reach advantage in this fight. He's the better wrestler and far more experienced. Barry the former kickboxer, has some of the most vicious leg kicks in the UFC, he's not likely to get to many opportunities to use them. Kongo, isn't a dumb guy, he'll pin Barry to the cage or take him to the ground and dish out some brutal ground and pound. I don't give Barry much of a chance in this fight. I even think that if Kongo wants to play the stand up game with Barry he has an advantage.
