Thoughts on Liverpool/Everton

Thoughts on Liverpool/Everton I have a general betting question that affects soccer the most since there are three possible outcomes. Liverpool plays Everton at Everton today. They are intra-city rivals and both are currently in danger of being relegated. My thinking on this game is this. Liverpool is slightly better than Everton, however both are underperforming right now. I give an edge to Everton in terms of home field advantage, which makes up for Liverpool's talent advantage. However, home field does not make them a favorite. That being the case, I think each possible outcome is equally likely. Then is it right to bet the best moneyline. For this game the numbers are... Everton +140 Liverpool +175 Draw +220 I think betting the draw is the play simply because it has the most value. Am I wrong? Further, is this a good play when there is no real favorite (all +100 or better)in general?

[QUOTE=KJG520;30150]I have a general betting question that affects soccer the most since there are three possible outcomes. Liverpool plays Everton at Everton today. They are intra-city rivals and both are currently in danger of being relegated. My thinking on this game is this. Liverpool is slightly better than Everton, however both are underperforming right now. I give an edge to Everton in terms of home field advantage, which makes up for Liverpool's talent advantage. However, home field does not make them a favorite. That being the case, I think each possible outcome is equally likely. Then is it right to bet the best moneyline. For this game the numbers are... Everton +140 Liverpool +175 Draw +220 I think betting the draw is the play simply because it has the most value. Am I wrong? Further, is this a good play when there is no real favorite (all +100 or better)in general?[/QUOTE] Thanks for the post and question. I am sorry I didn't see this until now as this game has already gone off. One thing that is worth noting is the talent level going into the game is probably not equal. With the fitness of Liverpool's Torres and Dirk Kuyt coming into question, I think Liverpool was not in the same form you thought. Also what's important to factor in is the home field is worth more as well. As much as 75-80 cents in these matchups...

I looked over the game - no bet game for me - liverpool still struggling and everton are not as strong as last year. mind you dont bet much in eng prem lg numbers were prob about right - with early move for everton in the week

Thanks, for your responses, I didn't bet the game either. I just wanted to test out the idea. Good point in terms of Kuyt. I basically think these two teams are even right now, but I could be wrong. I don't follow the EPL religiously and don't really bet on it. But I guess what I get out this is that it simply matters what the numbers are and whether they seem to be fair.