The Tour Championship

The Tour Championship The Top 30 players in the Fed Ex Cup standings are in the field. It's a big deal. Each player this week is fully exempt for all 2011 Majors, WGC events and exempt status to pick and choose all tournaments. The Tour Championship held at East Lake CC in Atlanta, Ga is a par 70 7,304 yards that features 3 inch rough, tight fairways, Bermuda greens and a ridiculous par 3 finish. Much of the buzz for this event other than the winner nets $10 million, is that Phil Mickelson can accomplish a great deal here with a win. He can finally overtake Tiger Woods as the No.#1 player in the World and he would lock up his first Player of the year award. Hard to believe "lefty" hasn't won a POY before. Matt Kuchar may be the player to beat this week, he's been the most consistent PGA Tour player by far, he has played East Lake dozens of times while at Georgia Tech and he lives 20 mins from the course. However, I must have read 10 articles saying that Kuch used the week off to move out of his Atlanta house to the one of the Georgia Island areas. Interesting timing don't you think? [B]Dustin Johnson -110[/B] vs Phil Mickelson Mickelson today pulled out of the Grand Slam of Golf, where the four major winners tee it up for free cash, an event that is several weeks away. He has said publicly his arthritis is too bothersome at this point to play more golf after the Tour Championship and the Ryder Cup. Well we all know Phil has to tee it up in the Ryder Cup and would skip this week possibly if he were not the defending champion? He cannot win the Fed Ex Cup, he is obligated by sponsors and Team USA to play now. [B]Correction, Phil can win the Fed Ex Cup, but will need a ton of help and basically any of the Top 5 to finish very low.[/B] DJ is playing tremendous golf right now and has not taken last week off, he's been out playing and practicing. [B]Zach Johnson -120[/B] vs Hunter Mahan Zach's course record 60 in 2007 prompted a redesign of East Lake. But, the changes should work in Zach's favor who is an accurate driver of the golf ball. In the last 3 events, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and BMW, Zach finished T21, T30 and T15 and ahead of Mahan in all of them. [B]Jason Day -115[/B] vs Geoff Ogilvy Day is the next coming of young superstar players on the PGA Tour. Ogilvy has played very poorly down the stretch and got lucky at the Deutsche Bank with soft conditions. Ogilvy once out of contention usual throws in the towel and coasts to the finish line.
Thanks Alf
[QUOTE=Alf M;28228]I'll have more info/possible matchups on The Tour Championship later [B]Dustin Johnson -110[/B] vs Phil Mickelson Mickelson today pulled out of the Grand Slam of Golf, where the four major winners tee it up for free cash, an event that is several weeks away. He has said publicly his arthritis is too bothersome at this point to play more golf after the Tour Championship and the Ryder Cup. Well we all know Phil has to tee it up in the Ryder Cup and would skip this week possibly if he were not the defending champion? He cannot win the Fed Ex Cup, he is obligated by sponsors and Team USA to play now. DJ is playing tremendous golf right now and has not taken last week off, he's been out playing and practicing.[/QUOTE] Agreed on this one. Lefty is going to be a liability in Ryder Cup I'm afraid. I actually think Tiger will play better than usual though.
Is stricker -110 vs mickelson same value? I Can see that stricker is favourite over DJ on Pinny

I usually like to play mulitple bets against one guy I think will struggle, but I believe I have the best player in the field here with DJ, ....I'm a huge fan of Strick and he's a great player, but only on certain types of tracks. no value with Strick......Overall Value? In golf matchups? perhaps, but not really and IMO is the most overrated aspect of sports betting..so you won't get me on that value bandwagon, we concentrate on the winning the matchup. Added more matchups etc.....at top
Thx for you analysis and insights on golf betting. If you believe that DJ is the best player in the field, and you don´t like Stricker on this kind of track, I would guess that DJ +120 vs. Stricker also is quite good value? I dont understand the last part of your post: "Overall Value? In golf matchups? perhaps, but not really and IMO is the most overrated aspect of sports betting..so you won't get me on that value bandwagon, we concentrate on the winning the matchup."
I think he means he won't fade a golfer for value, regardless of matchup opponent, anymore.
Good point both Joel and Skrub, but here's my take on value. I grew up betting the ponies, put myself through college with the trots and thoroughbreds, we bet for value there allot, if a horse was 5/2 morning line and went off at 7-1 and we liked that horse a tiny bit, it was an automatic play, that was value IMO. This week the Patriots opened -11.5 vs Buffalo, now they are -14/-14.5, no way no how you can play the Pats, right, but some will jump on Buffalo and say there is good value with them. You won't get me on Buffalo any time soon with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick or Trent Edwards = no value for me. The same goes for golf matchups, if Mickelson was +190, I'm not jumping on him because the market says so and the line has moved, I don't want to back what I think is a losing bet. Like I mentioned before I have a drawer full of value tickets. Now, there are thousands of value bettors out there that will disagree with me here 100%, but my take over 30 years is to pick winners especially in golf matchups and not chase value. Our good buddy the Dude, likes to exploit golf matchups for value and he is very good at doing just that.
As far as taking DJ over Striker, and it makes logical sense if I have DJ on top of the field, however I still think that DJ over Mickelson is the better bet than Stricker over Mickelson, but importantly do not want to FADE Stricker either.
I am not crazy about this tourney... the only line left, that I think is playable is... 7037) Surfer Charley "waste management" Hoffman vs little Kevin Na. I would play this for 0.5% at -110 or less. also, speaking of [B]value[/B].. I played the following 1st round plays for walnuts. 7116) Texas Palmer +125 vs Texas Mahan 7121) Marty Laird +160 vs Tits Mickelson 7127) Charley "dumpster dave" Hoffman +145 vs Stevie Stricker, 2 walnuts Best of Luck