U f c 134

U f c 134 UFC 134 Sat Aug 27th PPV This is a huge card in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where they sold out the HSBC arena in a few hours and should have held this at a giant soccer stadium. There is virtually a Brazilian fighter in every match and the home team will be tough to beat and the judges may have the final say, let's hope not. On another note, the UFC and Zuffa signed a 7 year $100 million+ deal with FOX TV, FX and Fuel TV which is great for fight fans and even better for handicappers. Now, hopefully we'll see all the fights on one show.....? Brendan Schaub -210 vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Somehow I believe this was another hand-picked for Schaub. The UFC is slowly bringing along their former TUF series heavyweight. He seems to be getting better with each fight, but more importantly as you saw in the TUF series Schaub needs experience, needs fights under his belt and he is now putting in his time in Colorado training with studs Shane Carwin and Nate Marquardt. His opponent "Big Nog" is again a heavyweight way past his prime and a tune-up for Schaub IMO. Big Nog and his brother "little Nog as we mentioned before have been opening up MMA gyms all over the USA and the other parts of the globe. He's had 2 fights since Dec '08 and his last fight was Feb 2010 over a year ago. The UFC wanted to give Big Nog (35yrs old) a possible farewell fight somewhere and waited for the 2nd ever Brazil event. This should be his last fight as he will not be able to withstand the strikes and KO power that Schaub has = early knockout. Edson Barboza -275 vs. .Ross Pearson If you haven't had the pleasure of watching Barboza, he fights very similar to the best pound for pound fighter I have ever seen and that Jose Aldo. With wicked kicks and solid strikes combination, Barboza 8-0 is the next great fighter out of Brazil and the linesmakers have been tipped off. We were hoping for -200 or less but realistically he should be -400 here against Pearson the weak-hearted multi-tattooed Englishman who has 4 loses and will look like a much smaller fighter vs. Barboza who is a massive 5'11" at 155 pounds.

I too was hoping for a better line on Barboza so that I could get down double fisted. In my opinion, it was the easiest fight on the card other then Silva. (I've parlayed those two as well) Barboza has a 6 inch reach advantage and is far far faster then Pearson. The only guy faster at 155 is Njokuani. Barboza beat Njokuani last time out in a very close fight that could have swung to Barboza in the last few seconds of the third round when he landed a big shot. Njokuani landed far more shots in the fight. Pearson is mostly a midrange fighter. Meaning he likes to be close to his opponents went striking. It is a style thing and it is because he fights short. He isn't a grappler though he has a few takedowns from the clinch. He'll discover quickly that he has to get the fight to the ground to have any chance of winning and he isn't much of a grappler.

Looks like most of your UFC picks go with the favorite and often a heavy favorite. Is that because of the wagering tendencies of the public combined with the desire on the part of the books to get an even amount of money on both sides or is their something else in play?

We've had many underdogs in UFC betting. Just trying to get the best price on the fighter I like, sometimes the sportsbooks/linesmakers are off like my last UFC post of Donald Cerrone, who should have been -130 and you could have found +135 when it opened. We'll handicap the matchup first, then make a parameter line and see where we're at. Anderson "Spider" Silva is now -450, was as low as -385, but was looking for less than 3 to 1. With UFC betting the sportsbooks are not getting equal amounts bet on both sides, they have to sweat out the main event to get ahead and will usually hedge extra on the favorite side or big name fighter. Too many cappers out there are stuck on being a "dog player" IMO, they are the current version of square sharps.

Too many cappers out there are stuck on being a "dog player" IMO, they are the current version of square sharps. Amen Brother!! In a previous thread, there was a breakdown of the dogs that have won. It suggested that guys +149 or less (from memory might be off a bit) win enough to bet. Dogs larger then that do not. The sample only covered this year.

Weigh in is at 12 pm PST...via UFC.com

Jabouin vs. Loveland (-192) Loveland recently lost clearly but wasn't blown out by Benevidez. Benevidez, in most cases, is the second rated guy at 135. Jabouin, at 145, lost to a flying triangle to Garza. Jabouin was clearly out striking Garza at that point. This will be the first fight for Jabouin at 135. He is a very active striker with a variety of strikes. This is likely a lose and go home fight for Jabouin and possibly for Loveland though he's 1-1 in the UFC. Jabouin is the faster guy, has more options when it comes to striking. Loveland seems very stiff while on his feet. He does have very good power. To me, the reason Benevidez struggled a bit with Loveland was his power. He nailed Benevidez in the first round and I think it slowed Benevidez's attack considerably. Loveland was noticeably taller then Jabouin and is listed as having a slight reach advantage. Both guys looked very gaunt at the weigh in. Both guys seems to have reasonable cardio, my notes mention issuses for both guys. Loveland has a bunch of submission on his record (12). Almost all of them are of the striking variety. I think that this fight is Loveland's to lose but at the odds available I have to pass. I discount the lower weightclass for Jabouin as Loveland did drop down a from 145 a few fights ago. Alcantara vs Arantes Both fighters are new to the UFC. Alcantara is a huge favorite. I don't know anything about these guys. Pass. Erick Silva (-270) vs. Luis Ramos Both fighters are new to the UFC. Silva is a sizable favorite and comes from Team Nogueira. Ramos is filling in for injured Mike Swick. My thinking is Silva should win this fight easily but without seeing either fight, I'll pass. Assuncao (-162) vs. Edwardo Line as moved against Assuncao as I think he opened over -200. Assuncao is on a three fight losing streak since winning a split decision against Jabouin back in his WEC days. I don't know enough about Edwardo to make a pick. Pass. Thiago (-393) vs. Mitchell Thaigo, is some kind of special forces guy in Brazil for what that is worth. Mitchell is a submission guy. Mitchell is listed as a BJJ guy but he isn't a black belt. Thiago is a black belt in BJJ and Judo. Without getting to in depth this looks like an easy fight for Thiago. He's at home, he's the better bjj guy, he's the better striker and he beats lower level guys. I have Thaigo in a few parlays. Palhares (-280) vs. Dan Miller Miller took the fight with about 6 weeks notice as a replacement. If Dan Miller can keep Palhares off of him he might win the fight, the problem is he isn't that kind of fight to stick and move. He likes to wrestle and getting on the ground with Palhares is very very dangerous. I............ The remainder of the post didn't auto save.... Palhares in a parlay. Tavares straight Cane to win PASS Barboza in mutiple parlays Schaub straight Rua but PASS Silva PASS Sorry, I don't want to retype all that stuff again.

I parlayed Barboza and Thiago Recommend the parlay at about -200 to win 1 unit. (I bet this for multiple units) I bet Schaub 2.25 to win 1 unit. I bet Tavares 2 units to win 1 unit. I bet 1 unit on 4 man parlay of Thiago, Schaub, Barboza and Palhares 1 unit to win 2. GL

Tru- would love to see your analysis on the Schaub and Tavares fights, thanks.

Nog has been KO'd two out of his last three fights. He's been off for a very long time again. Schaub has actually gotten into a lot better shape since he started in the UFC. Though I thought he was a bit slower in his last fight, he did have some very good takedowns. The type that are very hard to stop. Football tackle tackle takedowns. Schaub should be light on his feet for this fight and not look to stand and trade with Nog as that is likely his only chance of winning as he doesn't seem to use his ground game anymore. Tavares was getting the best of Roller last time out until he got caught. He actually was dominating the fight in my mind. He got caught by Roller who has under rated power. Fisher doesn't have that kind of power. His last KO was 6 years ago. Tavares is quicker, is the more accurate striker and can dominate on the ground. Fisher is a decent striker but has faded over the years and is now 35. A smart Tavares would clinch and take Fisher to the ground and ride out a win.