U.S. Open 2010 Matchups The 2010 US Open is at Pebble Beach Golf Links. The course will play significantly different than the regular PGA Tour AT&T National Pro-Am in February. Most notably will be the course conditions, which are now firm and fast in June as compared to wet, soft and bump greens in the early part of the season. In other words this week players will look to keep the ball below the hole, in February they throw darts.
The par 71 layout will play just 7,041 yards. This is by far the shortest US Open track of the decade. The early forecast is for mid 60's and sunny all week, little wind and marine layer fog in the mornings may push tee times back a bit. The rough looks very penal on TV around the greens especially and 3.25 inches of thick rough if you missed the fairway after a secondary cut. The greens are very small at Pebble Beach they average 3,500 sq ft. At Bethpage Black last year their greens were 8000 sq ft on avg. The fairways are 26-30 paces wide.
So, what kind of player are we looking for this week to back in matchups? I want guys that are sharp from tee to green, with solid current form. I'll be looking at a couple of key statistics, Driving Accuracy and Ball Striking, (which is Total Driving + Greens in Regulation). I think that driving the ball in the fairway is always paramount in any US Open. This week with calm conditions, meaning no wind ahead, these players could tear Pebble to pieces. They'll hit wedges into all the short par 4's, irons into the 6th and 14th par 5's.
[B]Phil Mickelson -125 [/B]vs. Tiger Woods
Tiger hasn't played enough Tour golf to be sharp enough to beat the top players in the World. I'll go on record and say he won't win the US Open. Forget the 2000 US Open win by 15 shots here at Pebble, it's not a factor now. He was the best golfer by a mile that year, not now. His swing is different now than it was a month ago. He has no coach, he has a huge divorce looming and he still can't hit a fairway when he needs to especially with the driver.
In 2009 when Tiger won the Memorial, a Jack Nicklaus design that has fairways where you can land a 747 on, he hit 45 of 56 fairways. Two weeks ago he hit just 33 fairways. If you can barely hit 50% of your fairways at the US Open you have no shot. But, Tiger makes up for it with his short game some how. I project he'll finish in the Top 20 but not the Top 10, and that is not good enough so we are betting against him with the No.# 2 and 3 players in the World. Also, Tiger hasn't played in a tournament at Pebble Beach since 2002.
Phil has finished runner-up 5x in the US Open. He should thrive at Pebble where he has won many times and in the State of California.
At the Memorial two weeks ago, Phil with a tune-up finished T5. Tiger was T19. At the Players Championship Phil finished T17, Tiger WD and was near 45th. At Quail Hollow, a course that they are considering for the US Open or PGA Championship, Phil finished 2nd, Tiger missed the cut.
Phil ranks 62nd in Ball Striking, Tiger ranks a very poor 191st.
[B]Lee Westwood -110 [/B]vs. Tiger Woods
Westwood won the St. Jude Classic last week in a playoff. On all the holes coming in and in the playoff he hit his 3 wood and split the fairway. The No.# 3 player on the planet will be hitting plenty of 3 woods this week at Pebble.
Interestingly, Westwood is paired with Tiger for the first two rounds. He is much sharper that Tiger right now, and if there was a 36 hole line, I'd bet on Westwood there too.
[B]Steve Stricker -105 [/B]vs. Ernie Els
Els has won two US Opens and won twice this season. However two weeks ago at the Memorial he hit the ball crooked and putted horribly on the super fast greens, much like the greens he'll see this week. How do we know this? We bet on Els that week and lost, watched his game closely, he didn't have it.
Stricker played Memorial as well and finished T17 his first week back after a layoff due to a should injury. Full steam ahead said Stricker for this week. He has the consistency, and putting to win a US Open.
[B]Robert Allenby -135 [/B]vs. Mike Weir
Allenby WD last week with an illness. He has proclaimed he will get to Pebble early and practice diligently for the second major. Allenby is a ball striking machine. He has 4 Top 10's and 8 Top 25's. Weir has only 1 Top 10 and 2 Top 25's.
We bet on Weir at the Memorial and lost. Why? Regardless of his past success at courses and tournaments, Weir seems to be seriously struggling off the tee and with his approach shots. He hit less than 50% of his fairways AND GREENS that week and shot a lousy 77 and 75 to miss the cut by 23 miles and managed to beat only seven players in the field!
[B]Matt Kuchar -135 [/B]vs Mike Weir
Kuch can putt with the best of them on Tour. Since he has changed his swing a year ago to a more flatter plane his game has not missed a beat. He was T8 at teh Memorial and broke par in every round.
[B]Hunter Mahan -120[/B] vs. Ian Poulter
We bet against Poulter last week and cashed again. He has missed two of his last three cuts, has knee problems, but most of all a lack of confidence right now.
Mahan is one fine driver of the golf ball. Last year I recall handicapping the US Open for Bethpage Black and Lucas Glover lead the field, No.# 1 on Tour in Total Driving. He went onto win his first major. Mahan leads the PGA Tour in Total Driving this year and has been knocking on the door (T8 at the Masters this year) and it wouldn't surprise me to see him hoist the trophy on Sunday.
[B]Robert Karlsson +110 [/B]vs. Graeme McDowell
If you watched last week the St. Jude Classic, Karlsson rarely made a mistake. He didn't kill it off the tee. He didn't make every putt. But, I loved his demeanor and his prep routine for each shot, he was committed and it looks like he has really worked hard on his game this year. He finished T4 at Torrey Pines, US Open in '08.
G Mac is a hit and miss kind of player. But, he can be really wild off the tee and get into all kinds of trouble on this type of golf course where he'll be forced to hack it our of the rough.
[B]Kenny Perry +115 [/B]vs. Stewart Cink
Here is KP's last four tournaments, T17, T22, T16 and T22. The guy just is too good off the tee and competes every week. Cink has had one good week this season since Hawaii and in Driving Accuracy, Cink ranks 97th, Perry ranks 23rd.
[I]Check back with us later in the week for more US Open plays.[/I]
