UFC 109: Relentless, Mandalay Bay 6 bets and 5 picks for this one. Main card: Paulo Thiago (+190) over Mike Swick Swick has not impressed me at all at 170. Thiago is 1-1 against Swick's American Kickboxing Academy teammates (win over Koscheck, loss to Fitch). Thiago is well-rounded. Not great at anything, but good at everything. If Swick can't get underhooks and take him down, then he is in trouble. Frank Trigg (+120) over Matt Serra Wrong side favored here. Serra got lucky and KO'ed St Pierre a couple years ago, but he is basically a .500 fighter. Trigg is the better wrestler and has the better standup game. Spike TV Card: Ronys Torres (+100) over Melvin Guillard Guillard is very explosive and athletic, but he gets himself in bad spots all the time. It will happen here as well. Undercard: Rob Emerson (-105) over Phillippe Nover Nover was runner-up on his season of TUF, but has lost 3 in a row. Emerson is scrappy and does enough here to get the decision. Phil Davis (-210) over Brian Stann Horrible matchup for the former Marine and Iraq veteran. UFC has done a poor job protecting this kid. Davis is a former NCAA National Champion wrestler from Penn State (2 yrs ago). Chris Tuchscherer (-180) over Tim Hague Hague has a questionable chin. However, Tuchscherer will take him down at will and justbeat him up with ground and pound. Other picks (all big favs so not bet): Randy Couture over Mark Coleman Both the same age, but Coleman shows his age much more than Randy does. Coleman will be gassed by Round 2. Try to find a prop with Randy winning by a rare submission. Nate Marquardt over Chael Sonnen Marquardt will win here, but don't bet him at -375. If you are a value player, the value is with Sonnen. Demian Maia over Dan Miller Dan and Jim Miller are really good fighters, but Maia is in another class and has the best BJJ in the game. Mac Danzig over Justin Buchholz Loser leaves town match here. Danzig finally breaks the losing streak here. Rolles Gracie over Joey Beltran Gracie is bigger and Beltran was last minute replacement for Moutstapha Al-Turk. Gracie by Round 1 submission.