UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy (Newark, NJ) and Boxing first off the picks that will not be bets.
Georges St. Pierre over Dan Hardy
Kurt Pellegrino over Fabricio Camoes
Nate Diaz over Rory Markham
-NOTE: Markham was 7 lbs over the 170-lb limit. Nate Diaz is also moving up in weight here. Too many unknowns, but I think Diaz is the more well-rounded guy.
Rousimar Palhares over Tomasz Drawl
-One of the best fights on the card. Grappler and ground master vs. good striker.
Jared Hamman over Rodney Wallace
-both looking for first win in UFC. Not interested in either side.
Wagers:
Shane Carwin (+140) over Frank Mir
Mir should be a small fav here, but I am not sold on him. Mir beat Nogueira when Nog had staph infection and was half dead. He also beat Lesnar, who was in his first fight in the octagon and then got dominated in the wrestling and in the clinch in the rematch. He beat Cheick Kongo b/c Kongo was caught off-guard since he thought Mir was going to try and take him down right away.
This is the same Frank Mir that also got dominated by Brandon Vera (who was the smallest heavyweight in the UFC at the time). Mir has put on a bunch of weight b/c he is under the disillusion that he lost to Lesnar b/c he wasn't big enough. That's poppycock. He lost to Lesnar b/c his wrestling stinks.
Both guys have the potential to gas out early since Carwin finishes his fights quickly. Carwin hits really hard, harder than Lesnar.
Jon Fitch (-320) over Ben Saunders
Saunders got dominated on the ground by Mike Swick, Fitch's American Kickboxing Academy teammate, in a previous fight. Fitch is the much better wrestler than Swick. Fitch is clearly the #2 guy at 170 in the UFC.
Ricardo Almeida (-148) over Matt Brown
Brown is a tough as nails guy, but Almeida is much more skilled.
Jim Miller (-315) over Mark Bocek
Easiest pick on the card. Miller is a much better wrestler than Bocek. He's also the hometown kid.
Matthew Riddle (-225) over Greg Soto
Soto has better BJJ, but not by much. Riddle the better wrestler and striker.