UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun 2 (Bell Centre - Montreal, QC, Canada Main card:
Lyoto Machida (-182) over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
Shogun got robbed on the first decision, but the value is gone here (was about +300 in first mtg). Machida is the better striker here. Shogun played it smart in first fight and did everything he needed to do and still lost. He may take some unnecessary chances here and get caught.
Josh Koscheck (-270) over Paul Daley
Daley has 2 good KO wins in UFC, but he can't wrestle for shit. None of the UK fighters are good at wrestling yet. Koscheck will exploit that here.
Matt Mitrione/Kimbo Slice OV 1.5 Rounds (+123)
Lots of folks seeing quick KO here, but Kimbo will take this to the ground. Mitrione throws hard punches, but gets taken down easily. Kimbo will get him down but won't know how to finish right away. In Kimbo's fight against Houston Alexander, they spent almost the entire 1st round feeling each other out I can see the same thing here.
Patrick Cote (+104) over Alan Belcher
Cote is very good throwing short punches in the clinch. Cote has fared well against tall, lean fighters in the past (defeated Kendall Grove, Scott Smith, Jason Day and Jason MacDonald and went deep into the fight with Anderson Silva before a knee injury).
Prelims:
Marcus Davis (+700) fastest KO/TKO over Jonathan Goulet
Goulet has a bad chin. Davis has good hands. Squash match.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-270) over Mike Guymon
Probable submission of the night here.
Tim Hague (-210) over Joey Beltran
Beltran overrated just b/c he beat Rolles Gracie (who was terrible in that fight).
Jason MacDonald (-168) over John Salter
Picks (not bets):
Johny Hendricks over TJ Grant
Marcus Davis over Jonathan Goulet
Tom Lawlor over Joe Doerksen
Sam Stout over Jeremy Stephens
Kimbo Slice over Matt Mitrione
