UFC 114 (MGM Grand, Las Vegas, NV) Main card (PPV fights - 10PM EST, 7 PM PST start)
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (-110) over Rashad Evans
Rampage was opened -140 here so money is on Rashad. This is literally a coinflip fight. Most of my reasoning is in Alf's thread. If this goes to the ground or stays in the clinch, Rampage wins. If it stays at distance, Rashad wins by dancing around and landing jabs and leg kicks.
Michael Bisping over Dan Miller
No bet here b/c -185 is a little high for Bisping. However, I think he wins here.
Todd Duffee (-279) over Mike Russow
Russow is a good wrestler, not great. Duffee is an up and comer. Lots are fading the Duffee hype, but he is a legit prospect. Not as high of a ceiling as Cain Velasquez (a sure future HW champ), but still a top prospect.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira over Jason Brilz
This was supposed to be Forrest Griffin vs. Little Nog. Brilz is better than people think and -550 is way too high for Nog. However, Little Nog is just a bit better. If you like to take high dog flier bets though, Brilz +425 is worth a 1/2 unit.
Diego Sanchez over John Hathaway
Hathaway is a top UK prospect at 13-0. However, he got outwrestled by Rick Story, but won in the standup there. Diego is back at his best weight (170). What keeps me from betting Diego is the fact that he went 5 rounds with BJ Penn and took a pretty tough beating back in December. I don't know how that affects him mentally.
Prelims (SPIKE TV; 9 PM EST, 6 PM PST)
Efrain Escudero over Dan Lauzon
This is the woodshed fight of the night. Escudero lost last time to Evan Dunham by submission, but did beat Dunham up for the whole 1st Round. Dunham is really good and that shouldn't dev-value Escudero.
Dong Hyun Kim (+110) over Amir Sadollah
Sadollah is a UFC golden boy and he improves every time out, but he was the most raw Ultimate Fighter winner ever. Kim beat TJ Grant, a solid fighter and good wrestler, and Kim outwrestled him. Kim is jacked at this weight (170) and Sadollah was a little heavy.
Cyrille Diabate (+280) over Luiz Arthur Cane
I think Cane will win, but this is good value for Diabate. Cane got his doors blown off last time out against Little Nog. Cane looked like he had never seen a southpaw before. He will see one again here.
Aaron Riley (-195) over Joe Brammer
Ryan Jensen (+132) over Jesse Forbes
