Ufc 116

Ufc 116 I have not bet Brock Lesnar yet, and now I have some concerns. The line has tumbled 40 cents from -180 to -140 to -137, why? I lean to Fedor losing on Sat as less motivation for Lesnar to continue to the biggest payday ever. Yes, I know Dana White threw the kitchen sink and Fedor balked. But, there are rumours Lesnar would have fought him anywhere on any circut. Tru, our resident fight doctor, your take please. Also, Chris Leben now fills in for Wanderlei Silva because of an injury. Chris Leben is brutal, he can't fight a lick. He was lucky vs Simpson as a +300 dog? We know little about Akiyama who is now -220 ...........?? Maybe cheap?
[QUOTE=Alf M;23447]I have not bet Brock Lesnar yet, and now I have some concerns. The line has tumbled 40 cents from -180 to -140 to -137, why? I lean to Fedor losing on Sat as less motivation for Lesnar to continue to the biggest payday ever. Yes, I know Dana White threw the kitchen sink and Fedor balked. But, there are rumours Lesnar would have fought him anywhere on any circut. Tru, our resident fight doctor, your take please. Also, Chris Leben now fills in for Wanderlei Silva because of an injury. Chris Leben is brutal, he can't fight a lick. He was lucky vs Simpson as a +300 dog? We know little about Akiyama who is now -220 ...........?? Maybe cheap?[/QUOTE] Akiyama hasn't fought in a year. Neither has a resume with quality wins.. Gotta see the weight in for Lesnar. Pictures of him aren't encouraging. Bonnar vs Soszynski may be a play. Soszynski's ground game is fantastic. Bonnar is more of a lay and pray guy but Soszynski can fight in any position on the ground and neither is good on their feet. The bad odds safest bet I've seen so far is... -750 on Lesnar vs Carwin not going the distance. That is free money. If those guys go five full rounds, I'll never bet on MMA again. More to follow.
I will try and get down Wed to the public viewing of workouts at the MGM. But, you think the reason Lesnar's line came way down is conditioning? Anything else?
[QUOTE=Alf M;23458]I will try and get down Wed to the public viewing of workouts at the MGM. But, you think the reason Lesnar's line came way down is conditioning? Anything else?[/QUOTE] November 2009?? Brock Lesnar today appeared on ESPN Sportscenter to address his longstanding mystery illness and the timeline for his return to the UFC. Lesnar was originally misdiagnosed with Mono, which caused him to pull out of the Shane Carwin title defense. This seemed odd to him, because he remembered having Mono as a kid, and you're not supposed to be able to get it twice. He collapsed in Canada and says he might have died for want of effective treatment if his wife didn't pick him up and bring him back to the U.S. (Brock Blames Canada) He went home to Minnesota's Mayo Clinic for a second opinion, and doctors gave him eight hours on antibiotics to get better, otherwise they recommended surgery to remove his colon, which would have required him to have a colostomy bag for the rest of his life. Lesnar's body responded to the challenge, and he went 11 days being fed intravenously, during which he lost 40-50 pounds from his 285 pound frame. When he went back to the Mayo Clinic yesterday, Lesnar was fully healed, with no holes in his stomach. UFC President Dana White says Lesnar's doctors told him, "You got a lottery ticket." He also confirmed Brock's claim that this was a "miracle healing." White went on to announce that the fight between Shane Carwin vs. Frank Mir will be for the Interim heavyweight championship. Brock will face the winner of that fight this summer to unify the belts. "I am still the UFC Heavyweight Champion," Lesnar says. Supposedly all better when that interview happened January 20th, 2010. So conditioning could still be an issue and 15 months off though that could be discounted as he's only fought a few times ever. If Lesnar looks good, I'm leaning to him. The wrestling, pro football and pro wrestling and excellent collegiate wrestling background favor Lesnar. Lesnar comes in low for the double leg take down/ body slam and is/was so big that sprawl defense doesn't work. Carwin can't punch him in the back of the neck (ufc rules) though he could knee him. I think Lesnar gets him down and I don't think that Carwin can fight off his back. I really think this is over in the first and over quickly one way of the other. Carwin has the power to KO anyone and could easily win. I'll check the weigh in video and workout videos. Lesnar is most likely fully recovered from his bout with diverticulitis as he didn't have to have surgery. I want to see the round props also, maybe we can find an angle to make money that way as well.

The fight doctor is in the house....Excellent info Tru!
I bet Lesnar at -145 (bodog) for two units. I think there is a chance of middling this fight. I think a ton of public money will get placed on Lesnar and the line may well rebound to Lesnar -190. Worst case if Lesnar looks terrible, Can always bet Carwin.
Anyone here on this board attend the UFC 116 public workout at the MGM this afternoon?
Spike TV will have the weigh in live at 6 pm cst. Akiyama vs Leben is now a co-main event... Why???
Lesnar now -130 at 5 Dimes. Anything up with that?
Alf "Anyone here on this board attend the UFC 116 public workout at the MGM this afternoon?" I was there. The only one to take off his shirt was Leben and he actually looked in great shape and I even saw some abs. Carwin and Schaub came out together and mostly did stretching and cardio exercises. Carwin did hit the pads for a bit. Bid power. Bommar did nothing but role. Soszynski kicked the shit out of the pads with vicious leg kicks. He looked good. Akiyama spent the most time hitting the pads and he also practised take downs. He looked very quick but I noticed him stretching his right shoulder after throwing a few right hands. Not sure if he was just stretching or if he twaeked it. Last in was Lesnar who did noithing but hit a pad for maybe 2 minutes. He stood both left and right stance but mostly lefty. His punches which we know is not his strong suit had no snap. He was pushing his punches.