UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen (ORACLE Arena - Oakland,CA) Note: Fights listed with the odds are wagers. Others are just picks. A rare all chalk for me here, but 3 of the fights are very small chalk.
Anderson Silva over Chael Sonnen
Chael has done the best job of hyping and promoting a fight than I have seen in a long time. His promos have been amazing. However, I think this was done to reinvigorate a dead brand that was Anderson Silva after his performance in victory over Demian Maia in April. Sonnen is an excellent wrestler, but often finds himself in bad spots for submissions (Losses to Maia, Jeremy Horn twice and Babalu). Anderson Silva is going to lay a beatdown here, but I don't want to lay between -450 and -500.
Thiago Alves (-123) over Jon Fitch
Oddsmakers telling you who they like here. Fitch is 12-1 in UFC (only loss to Georges St. Pierre) and beat Alves by 2nd Rd TKO in June 2006. Alves is 9-3 in UFC (losses to Fitch, St. Pierre and Spencer Fisher) and lost to Fitch before and failed to make weight again yesterday by 1/2 pound and yet he is still favored. Alves is much better than he was in 2006. Fitch usually starts real slow in fights. He lost the first round to lesser fighters than Alves including Mike Pierce, Paulo Thiago, Chris Wilson and Roan Carneiro. Fitch will also get caught frequently in submissions on the ground and he usually wills his way out of them. Alves is better on the feet and his Muay Thai will cause problems for Fitch, who is not a power puncher.
Rafael dos Anjos (-118) over Clay Guida
Toughest fight on the card to call. Guida is an exciting fighter and got arguably the biggest ovation at the weigh-ins yesterday. He is a good gatekeeper at 155, but that's what he is an exciting gatekeeper. Guida's reckless abandon, yet entertaining style (fight of the year in June 2009 vs. Diego Sanchez) gets him into trouble with good jiu-jitsu guys and dos Anjos is one of those guys.
Ricardo Almeida (-185) over Matt Hughes
Hughes has fared well against fighters under the Gracie tutelage (Royce Gracie, Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra), but Almeida is a different animal here. Hughes is in the twilight of his Hall of Fame career. He's lost 3 of his last 6 and I don't think his wrestling will overwhelm Almeida here.
Junior Dos Santos over Roy Nelson
I think Junior wins but I put a small wager on Nelson at +350. I don't think JDS should be that big of a favorite here. Nelson has good ground skills and might be the first guy that can put JDS on his back. However, on the feet, although Nelson has KO power, he implements the same attack over and over. 2 jabs than an overhand right. Dos Santos will figure that out quickly.
Dustin Hazelett (-129) over Rick Story
another toughie. Hazelett's ground skills are the difference here.
Phil Davis over Rodney Wallace
Davis is a hot young prospect. He was in 2008 NCAA wrestling champ at 197 lbs at Penn State. He is -600 to -700 here and I won't lay that lumber on an MMA fight ever.
Johny Hendricks over Charlie Brenneman
Hendricks will win b/c he's better but -360 is too high. Hendricks is a two-time NCAA wrestling champ (165 lbs) at Oklahoma State and finished second his senior year (56-1 record) losing in the final to Iowa's Mark Perry. Hendricks is far from polished yet as an MMA fighter though so he is susceptible, but no value to take him to win here.
Tim Boetsch over Todd Brown
don't have the confidence to lay -360 here, but Boetsch should win easily. Todd Brown is a late replacement for Thiago Silva, who is a top 10 guy at 205. Boetsch went 2-2 in first stint with UFC before not being re-signed. He has since gone 3-0 on the regional circuit and is now back. He beat David Heath and Michael Patt, but lost to Matt Hamill and Jason Brilz on his four-fight contract. Brown has fought nobody and is likely overmatched here.
Stefan Struve (-196) over Christian Morecraft.
the 6-11 Dutchman won't have as big of a height advantage here over the 6-8 Morecraft, but still has the experience. Struve is 3-2 in UFC but his losses were to Dos Santos and Nelson, who are fighting in a #1-contenders match for Brock Lesnar's HW title on this show. I think Morecraft comes forward and Struve somehow gets him down and submits him.
Ben Saunders over Dennis Hallman
Saunders is 4-2 in the UFC, but a really tough guy. Alves withdrew due to injury against Fitch at UFC 111 in March of this year and Saunders stepped up and took the fight on days notice and ended up losing on unanimous decision. Saunders is 6'3 and Hallman is 5'9. Hallman has been fighting since 1997 and has 57 total fights and his last great wins were in 1998 and 2000 over Matt Hughes. I don't want to lay -250 against a cagey vet like Hallman, but Saunders should be able to win this one easily.
