Ufc 121

Ufc 121 [B][I]IT'S TIME![/I][/B] Brock Lesnar looks in much better shape than he was for Shane Carwin, but I must admit, I have watched Cain Velasquez' last three fights and I think flat out he is the better fighter, better striker and all around MMA skills could prove to be the difference. Brock is still the top physical specimen, however all you have to do is think of that first round vs Carwin, where the ref could have easily stopped the fight and Lesnar is more than vulnerable. I have not bet this fight yet. Cain was as high as +145, then down to +120 and now the public I believe will surely push Lesnar's odds up, so I'll wait. But [B]I will bet on Cain Velasquez +??[/B] Other fights....[B]I played Gabriel Gonzalez at -135[/B] I think he's too big too experienced for B Shaub who struggled with Big Country. ..wanted Matt Hamil over Tito, but line has gone up very quickly this week. ......discuss.

Agree on Cain. I think it's better for UFC of Lesnar remains champ since he is the company's biggest draw and they are really pushing the Mexican angle with Cain since he is a decent, humble guy but lacks charisma. I would lean to Schaub in the fight over "Napao" Gonzaga. GG is declining and has a suspect chin and Schaub has some power. I look at the reason this fight was booked in the first place. This fight is designed to give Schaub a win and build him into something viable. The Nelson KO was just Roy catching him just right. There is no shame in losing to Roy. In fact, Roy will likely be a dog this Jan against Shane Carwin and I am all over Big Country in that one. Roy, despite his gargantuan belly, actually has more cardio than Carwin. I will look at the card more tonight. I like Hamill over Tito, but I don't like that #. Kampmann is a live dog as well. If it stays on the feet, all Kampmann. If it goes to the ground, Kampmann is good down there, but not nearly good enough to outwrestle or submit Shields. This fight is also booked for Shields to win b/c they need a fresh and new opponent for St. Pierre at 170 since he has cleaned out the division and is fighting recycled opponents already. Then again, Kampmann hasn't fought GSP either.

By the way, I love when Bruce Buffer says that. Even better live.

[QUOTE=Alf M;30535][B][I]IT'S TIME![/I][/B] Brock Lesnar looks in much better shape than he was for Shane Carwin, but I must admit, I have watched Cain Velasquez' last three fights and I think flat out he is the better fighter, better striker and all around MMA skills could prove to be the difference. Brock is still the top physical specimen, however all you have to do is think of that first round vs Carwin, where the ref could have easily stopped the fight and Lesnar is more than vulnerable. I have not bet this fight yet. Cain was as high as +145, then down to +120 and now the public I believe will surely push Lesnar's odds up, so I'll wait. But [B]I will bet on Cain Velasquez +??[/B] Other fights....[B]I played Gabriel Gonzalez at -135[/B] I think he's too big too experienced for B Shaub who struggled with Big Country. ..wanted Matt Hamil over Tito, but line has gone up very quickly this week. ......discuss.[/QUOTE] While I agree that Velasquez is probably a better all around fighter and maybe a better striker, Lesnar will have a noticable reach advantage and a likely 50 pounds of muscle advantage. This will be on the ground and Lesnar is just to strong for Velasquez. Tito is the more experienced fighter and getting +140 or better seems like an easy bet. Tito is long in the tooth but Kampmann is also old (34) and doesn't "listen" (yes he's deaf) to his corner all the time. Tito is the draw. I'd have to agree that Gonzaga is on the slide. Shaub +135 seems a better bet. I like Thiago over Sanchez but won't likely bet the fight. Jake Shields clearly but the number is to big.

Weigh in. Brock Lesnar 264 vs Cain Velasquez 244 Martin Kampmann 170 vs Jake Shields 170.5 Matt Hamill 203.5 vs Tito Ortiz 206 Gabriel Gonzaga 254 vs Brendan Schaub 239 Paulo Thiago 170.5 vs Diego Sanchez 170.5 SPIKE PRELIMS Ryan Jensen 185 vs Court McGee 184.5 Tom Lawlor 185 vs Patrick Cote 185 PRELIMS Daniel Roberts 170 vs Mike Guymon 170 Paul Taylor 155 vs Sam Stout 155.5 Dongi Yang 186 vs Chris Camozzi 185 Gilbert Yvel 249 vs Jon Madsen 254.5

Weigh in video observations. Tito looks great. Better then I remember in a long while at plus money I drop a few units on him. Hamil's level of competition is weak though Ortiz could simply be done. Lesnar looked like he was standing next to a middleweight. Lesnar looked a lot better then he did when he fought Carwin. I'm loving all the money flowing to Cain. Getting Lesnar at -140 is a gift. I've bet multiple units on Lesnar. Gonzaga looked good as well. Personally off that fight, but will likely tail.

I am maybe looking more at Lesnar as well. All of the so-called media experts, or at least most, are picking Cain.

Good points, Tru and Shooter......All the talking heads I've heard are on Lesnar, I'm sticking with Velasquez who weighed in only 20 pounds less, not 50, ....Mike Tyson looked like a middle weight too... Jake Shields dropping from 185 to 170 looks solid and huge over Kampmann, and Dana White says if Shields wins he gets the title shot, but if Kampmann wins he does not. Interesting. Any take on Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago after the weigh in?

[QUOTE=Alf M;30654]Good points, Tru and Shooter......All the talking heads I've heard are on Lesnar, I'm sticking with Velasquez who weighed in only 20 pounds less, not 50, ....Mike Tyson looked like a middle weight too... Jake Shields dropping from 185 to 170 looks solid and huge over Kampman, and Dana White says if Shields wins he gets the title shot, but if Kampman wins he does not. Interesting.[/QUOTE] Kampman isn't a draw, Shields is. No one said Dana White was fair. I'd side bet ya a nice dinner but I won't be back to Vegas until the Super Bowl and hopefully UFC126.

Deal, dinner it is, I'll gladly take Shields.