Here's what I played (also picked the other fights I didn't bet on):
Brock Lesnar (-135) over Cain Velasquez
I think a lot of the picks against Brock are basically anti-pro wrestling bias. The hardcore fans finally feel like they have a man to beat the big fella. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cain victorious. However, if Cain gets taken down, he won't be able to get up. Brock is way too big and strong. He only outweighed Cain by like 17 pounds and he looked 30-40 pounds bigger. Brock is in the best condition I've seen. Cain has become the sexy pick in this fight. That leads me to go with the champ here.
Martin Kampmann (+172) over Jake Shields
I was leaning Shields, but when I found out he had 13 lbs to lose the day before and day of the weigh-in, I went with Kampmann. Shields's striking sucks. Wrestling and BJJ are outstanding, but he is overmatched in the striking here. If Kampmann shows good takedown defense, easy win.
Matt Hamill over Tito Ortiz
No bet here, but the Hammer and Tito are basically carbon copies of each other's styles but Hamill is a way more powerful puncher.
Paulo Thiago (-110) over Diego Sanchez
I don't like Diego at 170. Too small. This is a coinflip fight though.
Brendan Schaub (+134) over Gabriel Gonzaga
See my reasoning earlier in the thread. This is my best and biggest play on the card. Gonzaga has one good win (the famous head kick KO over Cro Cop). Look at who his UFC wins are against: Chris Tuchscherer, Josh Hendricks, Justin McCully, Cro Cop, Carmelo Marrero, Fabiano Scherner and Kevin Jordan. He also beat former UFC fighter Brandon Lee Hinkle. Not exactly murderers row here. Schaub is much better than all of those guys except for the CroCop in his prime days under the PRIDE umbrella. Every time Gonzaga has been in a big fight in UFC, he's lost (Couture, Werdum, dos Santos, Carwin), but he is still a big name b/c of that great KO over CroCop. Schaub is booked to win this fight. I think he's a good prospect. I usually don't like taking the TUF guys, but they don't make these fights for these kids to lose.
Court McGee over Ryan Jensen
Tom Lawlor (+167) over Patrick Cote
Cote has never impressed me. The only real quality win he has is the knockout over Kendall Grove. Lawlor could get beat here, but this is good value. Lawlor is the better wrestler and Cote can't wrestle at all.
Sam Stout over Paul Taylor
This may be the fight of the night on the unaired prelims.
Mike Guymon (+119) over Daniel Roberts
Guymon is a good story. He was on the brink of suicide at one point a couple years ago. This is a fight meant for him to win.
Chris Camozzi (-105) over Dongi Yang
Taking the taller guy with the bigger reach.
Jon Madsen over Gilbert Yvel
Won't lay the 225, but this will be lay and pray by Madsen as usual.
