Ufc 129

Ufc 129 Starting with the undercard events. Makdessi vs Watson. Watson is a replacement for Brookins. Witnessing the great strides that Makdessi has made recently, Watson is out of his depth in this fight. Watson may be able to clinch up and get a few takedowns but his lack of Ground and Pound with be obvious. Makdessi has very good leg kicks and as he's usually on the short end in the reach department he uses spacing very well. Makdessi should win this fight and not have a difficult time with Watson. J. Macdonald vs Jensen. Who cares. I'll take Macdonald because he's from Canada and Jensen is a quitter. Menjivar vs Valencia I haven't seen enough tape on these guys to form my own opinion. My "guys" all like Menjivar in this fight. Patrick vs Roberts Likely to be an all ground affair as neither of these guys like fighting standing up much. My "guys" like Roberts in this match up. Roberts is likely the better wrestler but Patrick looks stronger and at least tries to ground and pound. I'm leaning Roberts but not likely to bet the fight. Jabouin vs Garza If Garza didn't have a huge reach advantage I would likely go with Jabouin's experience. I just don't know on this fight. NO bet for me. Pierson vs Ellenburger Pierson will be the hometown fighter in this matchup. Ellenburger took this fight on short notice. Pierson is 35 and I think has cardio issues. He isn't an elite striker. Ellenburger knows his last performance in February was less then stellar. He is always in shape so the short notice shouldn't be an issue. Ellenburger will get Pierson on the ground and likely ground and pound to victory. The first round will be close and Pierson may even win it but Ellenburger will in the end dominate the second and third rounds as Pierson fades.

Diaz vs R. Macdonald Very even fight in my mind. I'm leaning Diaz because of the long layoff for Macdonald. Both of these guys are available and this could easily be the fight of the night. Bocek vs Henderson Bocek is a one trick pony. He goes for the takedown then works for submissions but he seems to lack ground and pound skills. Henderson is a fantastic athlete and likely is the better striker and wrestler. Bocek is slow and plodding but relentless with the takedowns. Tough fight to call but I've already bet Henderson. I think that Henderson is just to quick for Bocek. Bocek doesn't have fast takedowns and I think that Henderson may be able to stuff many of them. Couture vs Machida Couture has been living off his reputation and great match making. He doesn't have a quality win since 2007. Machida's star has faded though I think he got a bad decision against Jackson last time out. If Couture where more heavy handed and quicker I might give him more of a chance in this fight. I think that Machida's TD defense will stop Couture from getting the fight to the ground. Even it if goes there, Machida likely has better ground skills anyway. This could be vintage Machida as he moves and strikes and Couture has little to answer with. Not a big fan of the line in this fight and likely will have to parlay this fight. Matyushenko vs Brilz Wow, what a useless fight. Brilz is off an 11 month layoff due to a back injury and fight cancellations. Matyushenko will have a slight reach advantage and with his improved striking and straight punches likely has the advantage in the stand up. Not that either of these guy will be mistaken for boxers. Brilz lost a questionable decision to Nogueira in his last outing. Matyushenko and Brilz both have good wrestling which likely could cancel each other out. I think that Matyushenko has a better heart and is stronger. I'm leaning Matyushenko but with little confidence. Aldo vs Hominick Hominick is an excellent technical striker but not overly heavy handed. He likes to fight moving forward or to counter punch. Aldo is simply been a beast. With truly devastating leg kicks and punches. I've enjoyed the hype job on Hominick for this fight. Aldo is the faster and harder striker, and is a BJJ blackbelt. Hominick's recent winning streak in on the backs of B level fighters at best. I don't think that this fight is all that close. The only advantage I see is for Hominick is that he's a better technical puncher. Big deal. St. Pierre vs Shields I like St. Pierre in this fight. Shields is a one trick pony but that trick (wrestling) is some of the best in the world. In what is likely a boring fight, I'll go with St. Pierre.

[QUOTE=truushot;42159] Machida's star has faded though I think he got a bad decision against Jackson last time out. [/QUOTE] I was on Machida that fight and agree - really thought at worst a draw and coulda/shoulda been a win. [QUOTE=truushot;42159] I'm leaning Matyushenko but with little confidence.[/QUOTE] i heard Japanese fighters in UFC get shafted if it comes down to the judges more often than not. Is this true??? What have u seen in this regard?

[QUOTE=IceTea;42161]I was on Machida that fight and agree - really thought at worst a draw and coulda/shoulda been a win. i heard Japanese fighters in UFC get shafted if it comes down to the judges more often than not. Is this true??? What have u seen in this regard?[/QUOTE] Japanese fighters may have lost a few close decisions but I do not think that they are targeted by the judges. Judges are regulated by the athletic commissions of the state where the event is held and wouldn't likely be biased. BTW... Vladimir Matyushenko is Belarusians not Asian.

From mmaplayground based on member fantasy picks, for what its worth. Main card: Georges St. Pierre 92% vs. Jake Shields 8% [WW title] Jose Aldo 94% vs. Mark Hominick 6% [FW title] Jason Brilz 72% vs. Vladimir Matyushenko 28% Randy Couture 28% vs. Lyoto Machida 72% Mark Bocek 34% vs. Ben Henderson 66% On Spike: Nate Diaz 68% vs. Rory MacDonald 32% Jake Ellenberger 87% vs. Sean Pierson 13% On Facebook: Claude Patrick 65% vs. Daniel Roberts 35% Ivan Menjivar 57% vs. Charlie Valencia 43% Jason MacDonald 77% vs. Ryan Jensen 23% John Makdessi 55% vs. Kyle Watson 45% Pablo Garza 51% vs. Yves Jabouin 49%

I bet 1.12 units to win 1 on Makdessi and Aldo in a parlay.

I just saw that 5dimes will have live in-play wagering on the UFC.

[QUOTE=truushot;42216]I just saw that 5dimes will have live in-play wagering on the UFC.[/QUOTE] That's cool. I wonder what the juice will be with the live lines.

[QUOTE=Hicksey;42220]That's cool. I wonder what the juice will be with the live lines.[/QUOTE] i think it will be hard... those fights can change in such short notice... how do they post accurate lines? and then you have some guy completely kicking the other guys ass, fight could end at any point, lined at -100,000.

[QUOTE=IceTea;42221]i think it will be hard... those fights can change in such short notice... how do they post accurate lines? and then you have some guy completely kicking the other guys ass, fight could end at any point, lined at -100,000.[/QUOTE] It won't be a "play by play" type of wagering that would be impossible. So it will be results orientated betting. Likely to do with take downs or fight ending situations. Hopefully it is interesting. Even takedown stats can be a bit subjective though.