Ufc 130 This card has several interesting fights, and I can make good cases for both sides on allot of these matches and therefore I expect many upsets at decent prices, but hard to bet full units on them unless you have a strong opinion on one side, not two sides.
Rampage Jackson -250 vs Matt Hamill
This line is ridiculous. Rampage is on the down side of his career, he despises training, he's lazy, talking retirement and lost his last fight to Machida even though the judges scored it for Rampage. Then add in the much hyped TUF coaches matchup and Rampage couldn't have been more motivated for a fight in his life and lost easily to Rashad Evans who had the perfect game plan....and it has to be the same game plan for Hamill, to take Rampage down and have him fight on his back and wrestle him for all 3 rounds. If Hamill tries to stay on his feet and make it a slugging contest, he'll get hit and could get knocked out, but honestly I don't see that happening and Hamill winning a close decision. I'm making a small play here on Hamill because I think he is also on the downside of his MMA career and isn't the all-around fighter that Evans is and we bet Evans as you recall.
Frank Mir -125 vs. Roy Nelson
Nelson can win this fight with his big right hand, which is better than either of Mir's punching prowess. Mir wins this fight by submission only and both guys are in terrible shape. Pass.
Travis Browne -140 vs Stevan Struve
Neither fighter has fought upscale heavyweight competition to warrant a full unit play, but we know the heart and skills of Struve and even when he looks beat, bloodied and battered finds ways to win with submissions. Browne is vastly overrated and is strictly stand-up and after watching his last two fights on tape, if he doesn't kill his opponent early he gets really tired, has poor cardio and this is when "the Skyscraper Struve" wins the fight. 6"7 vs 6"11 inches could be a boring fight. Struve is only 23 and has 29 fights under his belt and many on top rated PPV cards, not the same for Browne at 29 with only 11 contests = advantage Struve. Half Unit on Struve.
Thiago Alves -195 vs Rick Story
Very good fight matchup and both of these guys in their prime right now, wouldn't surprise me if either won here and Story is underrated IMO with plenty of wrestling and cardio to make this go the distance. If both fought their best fight, I'd give the edge to Alves.....Pass.
Brian Stann -140 vs. Jorge Santiago
Santiago was in the UFC and lost B2B fights in 2006, since then he has dominated the Sengoku Japanese circuit which features many Japan and Russian fighters that are of a lesser class and that is another reason we like Stann in this fight. Quality of opposition is a key handicapping factor. (Just like George St Pierre vs Jake Shields, Shields had fought a weak class of fighters)
Santiago lost via TKO strikes to Mamed Khalidov and then won the rematch by decision. He hasn't fought since Aug of 2010.
Stann is the best boxer and has the best pair of hands that I have seen in the middle weight division. He just won in January and the former Military Officer will be extra motivated to fight on Memorial Day weekend. Full Unit on Stann.
Miguel Torres -115 vs Demetrious Johnson
Excellent matchup and a pick'em fight. Pass.
Kendal Grove -145 vs Tim Boetsch
Do not like either of these fighters. Pass
Gleison Tibau -330 vs. Rafaello Oliveira
Tibau has won 3 of his last 4 fights and the lone loss was no shame to Jim Miller. Oliveira has not fought since March of 2010 and prior to that lost to Nick Lentz. This is a tune-up for Tibau who is younger and has more fights. We'll parlay Tibau with McDonald and Baro.
Michael McDonald -365 vs Chris Cariaso
Cariaso has no skills, he wins only by decision and if you watched the weigh in, McDonald is 5'9" vs Cariaso who is 5'3 inches and it looked even worse when they squared off, McDonald was a giant and looked 20 pounds heavier. He's the biggest favorite of the card and should be, we were hoping to lay less than 3 to 1.
Renan Baro -330 vs Cole Escovedo
Baro comes from the well documented Brazilian Combat Fight Club and dominated the WEC. He has strong striking and ground game skills. Escovedo has 6 loses and is here for a payday.
