Ufc 130 RAMPAGE JACKSON VS MATT HAMILL
While I do give a slight chance of Hamill being able to wrestle Jackson down and win rounds, it is the only way that he wins this fight. He simply cannot fight a stand up game against Jackson. Jackson has the faster hands, the better chin and a huge advantage in power. My feeling is that Hamill has fallen in love with his standup game and that he won't want to wrestle. This seems to happen to many fighters. He's a stubborn guy and personally don't think that his fight IQ is all that high. Hamill is no spring chicken and will be 35 later this year. He's the OLDER fighter, he's the slower fighter and he has less power. His only advantage is likely wrestling. I really don't see Hamill winning this fight.
Mir vs Nelson
Who cares. Nelson looked even further out of shape. I'm not a fan of Mir but I lean Mir in this fight. Nelson only has the over hand right and only a defenseless idiot gets beat by a one trick pony. Mir may be that idiot. No wager.
Struve vs Browne
I like Struve in this fight. Browne does have a chance to land a bomb and end the night early for Struve. Struve just seems to find a way to beat lesser guys and I think that Browne is one of those guys. Browne is a wild swinger with little technical skills. He also has cardio issues and fades as the fight goes on. The biggest issue is that Struve's fight IQ is low at this point. He LOVES to bang and with his questionable chin he shouldn't. He needs to utilize his height and reach advantage and needs to fight tall. He hasn't shown that he has the ability but he's a tough kid. Like Alf, I like Struve but haven't yet decided to bet him.
Alves vs Story
I don't get a lot of the talk about Rick Story in this fight. Alves is a dynamic striker, Story isn't. Story hangs his chin both in fights and IN PRACTICE. He must think that he's indestructible. Fight rule number 1, TUCK YOUR CHIN!!! He doesn't, his trainers are crap and cannot seem to get that threw his tiny head. I think that Alves has intimidated Story, at the face off during the weigh in, Story looked intimidated. I think that Alves wins this fight and I'll have a parlay with him in it.
Stann vs Santiago
Santiago has been fighting in Japan for the last 3 years and he does boast an impressive record over there. Over there being the key words in that phrase. It is a simple fact that the best MMA fighters in the world fight in the USA. Santiago did fight in the UFC years ago and was dropped after getting KO'd twice in a row. He also recently lost by KO yet again. Stann dropped down from 205 and this is his third fight at 185. He has very good boxing skills but lacking skills on the mat. Yes Santiago could get this fight to the ground and get Stann in a submission of some kind. I don't see that happening. Santiago is again on the biggest MMA stage again, and will be amped up. His chin is bad and he is often wide open to strikes. Stann is a very intelligent fighter and he has Greg Jackson in his corner. This looks like a good fight for Stann and I've already bet him.
Torres vs D. Johnson
This fight opened, -210 Torres. Within a day or so, Torres was a slight dog in the fight. That suggests that the big bettors moved to Johnson and moved hard. I understand that the opening number was a bit inflated but to believe that Johnson is a favorite in this fight is difficult for me. Torres has a world of experience, trains with St Pierre now and has a gigantic height and reach advantage. Yes, Johnson is likely the fastest guy in the UFC. He has excellent take downs and is hard to get a handle on. Johnson possesses great movement and will be a very tough opponent for Torres. I'm not recommending a bet on Torres in this fight, though I'll likely bet him myself. Torres is very good off his back and very aggressive off his back. Johnson has okay top control but has little to no ground and pound. He is a part time fighter at this point, and he looked like he was going to crap his pants during the stare down. I think Johnson doesn't like being punched in the face and he will get punched in the face by Torres.
Grove vs. Boetsch
Both of these guys have been less then stellar in there UFC careers. Boetsch did look fantastic (for him) at the weigh in and reading Dana White's lips, he certainly agreed. I think the cut to 185 may be very good for Boetsch. Boetsch does have good power and it will be even better at the lower weight. Grove is just a guy, nothing special but he does have decent well rounded game. I'm leaning Boetsch in this fight but won't likely bet him as I need to see how the weight cut effects him.
Tibau vs Oliveira
Oliveira took this fight on 9 days notice. Tibau is a GIANT at 155 and is rumored to fight at close to 190 come fight time. This will likely go to decision as Tibau is often less then exciting as a fighter but I just do not give Oliveira much of an chance to win this fight. I'll also have a parlay with Tibau. This is likely the closest thing to a sure thing on this card.
McDonald vs Cariaso
On paper this looked to be a big mismatch. McDonald likely has a bright future in the UFC and Cariaso is just a guy. McDonald has a very large height and reach advantage on top of being the much more aggressive fighter. This is also likely an easy win for McDonald, a look and the odds reflect as much. Parlaying McDonald is the way to go.
Barao vs. Escovedo
This seems like a big mismatch but some of the guys I read have picked Escovedo in this fight. I cannot fathom why. Escovedo looks very weak to me, on the film I watched, he does seem to be a decent striker. Barao sports an amazing record but most of it was in Brazil. He does have two wins in the WEC but this will be his first UFC fight. Escovedo's as well. Both have fought a bunch but Escovedo has fought the much better competition though he's lost all of those fights. I can't get to Escovedo winning this fight but some of the guys I read are very knowledgable and I'll just be leaving this fight alone. My opinion is Barao by submission and likely in the first round. Escovedo just doesn't seem to be all that talented, I'm just a bit wary of Barao.
Suggested bets a bit later.
