Ufc 131

Ufc 131 Early thought I bet Dos Santos -165 to win 1 unit. I'll have my write up probably tomorrow night. I feeling is that Carwin's power is overstated. He has won every fight by TKO or KO in the UFC besides his loss to Lesnar. I don't see any one of those guys having a good chin. 5 out of 8 wins prior to the UFC where by submission. Many of his UFC foes where KO'd be other bums and he couldn't finish Lesnar from mount. We could see Carwin trying to press Dos Santos against the cage like he did to Mir but I think Dos Santos will be aware of this and the his hand and foot speed advantages will be the difference in this fight. Carwin is coming off an 11 month layoff and back surgery.

Let's make this thread the Official LVASports UFC 131 thread, better discussion on one thread IMO. Put your comments, suggestions and selections right here. The weigh-in is at 2pm PST Friday and I don't think anything will sway me from making more or less bets due to the weigh-in, you never know. So far, I have bet.... Nick Ring -115 vs James Head Ring as you may recall from the TUF series, was forced out due to a knee injury and then last Feb made his return to the UFC and we cashed with him over Fukuda and Ring looked real solid there and I love his striking. Head hasn't fought in quite some time and he currently works full-time as a petroleum engineer, nice job, decent pay, good career... but = advantage Ring who is shooting up the ladder in the UFC middle-weight division and has his eyes on a title shot maybe in a year or so. Ring is a tough strappin Canadian lad from Calgary, this event is in Vancouver, BC, Canada and he should be pumped for this fight and have the obvious home crowd edge, which is more significant than you might think. Donald Cerone -360 vs Vagner Rocha [B]OK[/B], after laying and parlaying -360 to -390 with Josh Grispi last week, who was beaten to a pulp by a much improved, elbow ripping George Roop, I decided to parlay pretty much all MMA bets of -250 and higher. Why?... (and for the record Fezzik and I disagree with this theory), it's because losing a -300 bet when you have 3-4 bets going that card, there's nothing worse than picking more winners or cutting your loses and coming out with a minus for the day. Make all the claims you want about -300 bets in the long run, proving/cashing-in their weight, maybe so with football and basketball, but I hate it with betting MMA. Cerone is a nasty brawler that seems to be getting better with every fight. Heard Clay Guida (who IMO never hurt Anthony Pettis, but did deserve the decision, nice analysis by our "fight doctor" on the UFC debut angle, well done TRU!) on local radio here in Vegas this week and he has been training with Cerone and said he has been killing everyone in the Greg Jackson camp and that his opponent has little to offer. Rocha lost his UFC debut to a no name fighter. So, we are going to parlay Cerone with Ring for a full unit and another separate parlay with Dustin Poirier. Dustin Poirier -320 vs Jason Young Poirier is a young 22 year old MMA vet, with a 9-1 record. I've never seen a guy fight so well off his back and then when he gets up is full of energy and goes for the KO! Young is coming over from England for his first UFC test and already has 3 loses in the Cage Rage events.

[QUOTE=Alf M;43798] Ring as you may recall from the TUF series, was forced out due to a knee injury and then last Feb made his return to the UFC and we cashed with him over Fukuda and Ring looked real solid there and I love his striking. [/QUOTE] Wasn't this the fight where Fukuda dominated and got screwed by a shady decision? Edit... yep: [url]https://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/biggest-robbery-mma-history-fukuda-ring-1563791/[/url] [url]https://www.pancrase.org/nick-ring-vs-riki-fukuda-ufc-127/02-27-2011/[/url]

While googling i found this cool site: [url]https://blog.fightmetric.com/2011/02/ring-vs-fukuda-official-ufc-statistics.html[/url] If u look a the decision tab, shows that Fukuda should have won 30-27 on the 10point must system and had an overall victory per their stats of 201 to 109.

[QUOTE=IceTea;43804]Wasn't this the fight where Fukuda dominated and got screwed by a shady decision? Edit... yep: [url]https://www.sherdog.net/forums/f2/biggest-robbery-mma-history-fukuda-ring-1563791/[/url] [url]https://www.pancrase.org/nick-ring-vs-riki-fukuda-ufc-127/02-27-2011/[/url][/QUOTE] I had money on Ring in that fight and thought no way I was cashing. I thought Fukuda won handily.

Observations. [B]Shane Carwin [/B]+141 (12 - 1 – 0) vs. [B]Junior dos Santos [/B]–156 (12 - 1 – 0) Favored dos Santos would have to win at a rate of 60.9% or better to break even at -156 and for Carwin its 41.5% at +141. Both sport identical records. Age wise, dos Santos is close to 10 years Carwin’s junior, no pun intended. Carwin is coming off of an injury (lost feelin gin his right hand and had surgery on his neck) and hasn’t fought since his loss to Lesnar 11 months ago. Of both fighters’ combined 26 fights, only one went the distance and that was dos Santos’ last fight decision win destruction over the steel jawed Roy Nelson. These two both have huge power. The one advantage I see Carwin having is his wrestling ability. You may remember in the Lesnar fight when Carwin defended Brock’s take down attempt (1st round) and then so nearly ended that fight with some ground and pound before his cardio let him down. After close to a year layoff, how sharp will Carwin be and will he rely on his wrestling to try and control this fight or will he stand and bang with dos Santos? The way I see it, I don’t think it’s going to matter. The younger, aharper, quicker, better conditioned dos Santos will win what should be an entertaining main event. Unlikely to see a full 3 rounds here. [B]Kenny Florian[/B] -277 (13 - 5 – 0) vs. [B]Diego Nunes [/B]+245 (16 - 1 – 0) Favored Florian would have to win at a rate of 73.5% or better to break even at –277 and for Numes its 29.0% at +245. First go at 145 for Florian. Certainly Nunes will not be a cakewalk for Florian. And at +245 I think Nunes is worth a look but I am passing on this fight. [B]Demian Maia[/B] +100 (14 - 2 – 0) vs. [B]Mark Munoz [/B]-110 (10 - 2 – 0) Favored Munoz would have to win at a rate of 52.4% or better to break even at –110 and for Maia its 50.0% at +100. This basically pick ‘em fight boils down to simply whether Maia can submit Munoz or not. If he can’t I see no other way that he outpoints Munoz and wins. Munoz has improved stand up skills and on the ground he can be devastating. I see this hitting the mat with Munoz on top. Going with a Munoz win here. [B]Donald Cerrone[/B] –370 (14 - 3 – 0) vs. [B]Vagner Rocha [/B]+322 (6 - 1 – 0) Favored Cerrone would have to win at a rate of 78.7% or better to break even at –370 and for Rocha its 23.7% at +322. Alf already has a great write up on this one. This should be a no contest and not that there is ever an easy win in MMA but I see Cerrone coming out on top in this one. More later.

Ahh ha, I stand corrected. Ring was lucky to win that decision, must have been thinking of Rory and or Jason McDonald, two Canadian lads, however, if you watch the Ring fight you'll notice he was thumbed early in the contest, cut, and it slowed him down from the onslaught. Still have my money on him. Like the spot and against this opponent.

Omigawa vs Elkins Opening UFC 131, we are treated to this fight... The line is at least -230 Omigawa. Elkins has no quality wins, other then a freak injury to Ludwig. Elkins will have a noticeable height and likely a reach advantage as well. Omigawa is 0-3 in the UFC but he's faced much better quality. He lost last time out to Mendes which is nothing to be embarrassed about at this point. Omigawa could be on the fade as he's now 35. Who knows. Beltran vs Rosa Arron Rosa, is a huge guy, fat and flabby yes but a big dude. Even at such a heavy weight he is a bit light on his feet. Beltran seems to always be the smaller man in the ring and this fight is no different. Both of these guys could fight at 205, and Rosa at one point did. Beltran likely has better power, and without a doubt has a better chin. Rosa does have submission wins but the film I watched, they where not quality subs. Last time out Rosa subbed Wagner, who some thing is more then a tomato can, I strongly disagree. Wagner is a bum, and gassed so bad Rosa kinda fell into a loose side/back control and subbed him. It proved nothing. I do believe that he was on his way to improving his conditioning as he did look like he was in better shape in that fight. He looked soft at the weigh in and didn't seem to train well. Beltran's last two, which he lost where against Pat Barry and Matt Mitrione. I don't consider Barry a top 20 fighter but he is a devastating leg striker and he broke Beltran down to the point that he could hardly stand. Yet Beltran wasn't finished by Barry. Mitrione clearly beat Beltran and was simply the better athlete in that fight. Mitrione is a marginal contender and a former NFL player. Some of the guys I really respect have picked Rosa in this fight and normally I would just pass the fight as I think Beltran wins this fight. In this case, I'm still going to bet Beltran at +140 for half a unit. Rosa has shown nothing to me that he belongs in the UFC. He took the fight on a months notice and didn't look good at the weight in and this will be his fight time under the bright lights on the UFC. Beltran isn't all that skilled but I just think this is his fight. Poirier vs Young I don't like this fight. YES Poirier should win this fight. I've learned from experience that YOUNG guys sometimes are not what they seem when it comes to fights. As everyone knows we all lost on Grispi last time out and his performance has to lead us to question just how good Poirier is. Young isn't anything special as far as I can tell. He's likely the quicker fighter here though. This is also his first UFC fight and that seems to be a problem for most fighters. I parlayed Poirier and I'm pretty sure he'll win. His last three... He destroyed Grispi, Ko'd Micklewright in the first and lost to Danny Castillo. Last two fights where in the WEC. Grispi, could be a complete fraud, Micklewright was KO'd in less then a minute and often first round KO's are dubious at best. Castillo won 30-27 x 2, 29-28. In what sounded like a close fight. So Poirier is still a question mark to me. Young is mostly unknown to me. Ring vs Head Alf covered this one. I'm likely passing on this fight. Soszynski vs Massenzio Massenzio is a former UFC fighter but took this fight on 4 days notice. He is Soszynski's third opponent for this fight. Massenzio fought at 185, this fight is at 205. Massenzio is better then we might think but he's likely over matched here. Soszynski is susceptible to getting taken down. That is likely the only chance Massenzio has. Soszynski is a massive favorite and should be considered for parlays. Bongfeldt vs Weidman Weidman is a massive favorite in this fight and likely should be. Bongfeldt fought to a draw against Natal in his first UFC fight. I scored it as a loss for "waterbong" though he had a very good third round. Weidman's standup seems to be improving but his game is wrestling and he's one of the best at 185. Weidman beat Sakara last time out after taking the fight on short notice. He is one of the best prospects at 185 and I think he gets "waterbong" to the ground and wins all the rounds. Edwards vs Stout The story of this fight, at least from some well respected MMA writers, is that if Edwards takes this fight to the ground he will win, if it stays standing Stout is likely to win. So how will this fight go. Seems really obvious to me. Edwards has one takedown in his last four UFC/WEC fights. Yes he's won his last two fights but they where against poor fighters. In the second round of his last fight I had him losing in the 2nd before he got the submission and let us be honest Cody McKenzie is TERRIBLE. (Remember terrible in the UFC is still better then 85 percent of all MMA fighters) Edwards is 34 now and has slowed. Edwards has a lot of submission wins in his MMA career so it is possible he'll fight Stout that way. Stout's biggest problem is his lack of power. He's a very high volume fighter and he does has a great chin. He doesn't finish fights but is often involved in "fight of night" scraps. He's solid and usually fun to watch. I'm betting Stout wins this fight. Edwards is a low volume fighter and even if they aren't the heaviest punches they still count. He throws a lot and can be hit and is often bloodied but like I said, his chin has been undentable. Cerrone vs Rocha Rocha is supposed to be a fantastic BJJ practitioner. Okay... where do I go with this now... Cerrone is a vulnerable fighter but this isn't one that he'll lose. He's been excellent on the ground winning many of his fights by submission. Rocha has no quality wins and lost to Bret Bergmark. Bergmark was off a 2 YEAR layoff. Everything points to Cerrone in this fight. I have a parlay with Cerrone in it. Maia vs Munoz I could go one for a few pages about these guys but I won't. Munoz has better power and is the better wrestler. Maia is one of the best BJJ guys in the UFC. He's been improving his striking and is the better technical striker in this fight. Toss a coin. I lean Maia, I just think he's better but Munoz could easily win this fight. NO Bet. Einemo vs Herman Herman, young with a lot of fights against mostly poor fighters. Einemo hasn't fought in 5 years. Originally Eimeno was signed as cannon fodder for a returning Carwin but with Lesnar's health issues Carwin was moved to the main fight. I so want to bet Herman but I likely won't. If Einemo gets this fight on the ground it is likely over. Einemo is supposed to be a MASTER level BJJ guy but fiver years out of the ring, I just don't know. Florian vs Nunes I often don't like to bet on guys at a new weight class as it can be a mixed bag. From what I've seen of Nunes is that he's a stylish striker and has very good leg strikes. He looked awkward as a puncher and can be taken down and held down. Florian will be the bigger man in this fight with a big reach advantage. Last time out Nunes fought against fading former WEC champ Mike Brown. I scored the very close fight for Brown. He decision-ed Tyler Toner and beat Assuncao prior to that. I don't think any of the three fights where against high quality guys. Florian beats guys he's supposed to beat and loses to better fighters. Well better wrestlers for the most part. Like I said, he'll be the bigger guy in this fight, so I don't see that as an option for Nunes. I put Florian into a 4 man parlay. He looked good at the weigh in and it seems like he did the weight cut correctly. I think that while Nunes isn't just a guy, he isn't at the top level where Florian has been. I look for Florian to win this fight, hopefully he isn't to drained from the weight cut. Dos Santos vs Carwin Beginning of this thread I said I've already bet Dos Santos to win this fight. My opinion hasn't changed. I simply think that Dos Santos is the better fighter at this point.

Soszynski, weidman and cerrone 1 unit to win 1 unit (odds are likely a bit worse now) .5 units to win .675 on Beltran 1.65 to win 1 Dos Santos Florian, Cerrone, Weidman and Poirier 1 unit to win 1.76 GL

I've had the pleasure of meeting Krzysztof Soszynski last year, it was for the re-match with Stephan Bonnar where he got clobbered. I managed to corral him during a public workout and talked to him for a good 20 mins, trying to pick his brain about his fight, other fighters, UFC betting etc. What I found to be too good to be true was that this guy, a mean looking bald headed fighter, tats everywhere.....was one of the nicest guys I've ever met. He gave me the time of day, answered just about anything and then we talked about him being Canadian. He is a Canadian citizen, loves BC, Vancouver, Victoria Island and is 9-4 in fights north of the border. At -325 he isn't mean enough to lay that price for me tonight, even though his opponent is weak. I think truushot has the right idea to throw him in a parlay, but I won't invest much in Soszynski, he is on the down-side of his career and let's hope he wins big here with a KO and we can look to bet against him down the road.