UFC 133 Saturday

UFC 133 Saturday Interesting card on Sat, unfortunately I like all chalk and it's huge chalk and after losing with Fedor last week, I'm not in any hurry to lay a big number. So we are going to parlay a couple of fights together. Rashad Evans -420 vs. Tito Ortiz I thought Rashad won the first fight back in 2007 and since then obviously Rashad has improved (Evans 5-1, Ortiz 1-3) while Tito is long in the tooth and was extremely lucky to win his last fight vs. Ryan Bader, (even though Bader is massively overrated IMO) it saved Tito's career and now he must fight a guy that has moved his camp and works with better trainers and is chomping at the bit to get in the Octagon after a layoff due to injuries. This line has climbed steadily from -360. Alexander Gustafsson -170 vs. Matt Hamill We have here two fighters going in opposite directions and yes, Gustafsson hasn't exactly fought "murder's row" but he is a young improving 25 year old, 11-1, the better fighter at this point, throws kicks and punches well and to me this is the main difference in the fight. Watching Hamill go down in flames ( and my money with him) against Rampage Jackson, he simply could not release his hands and throw a single decent shot. His game plan was to take Rampage down and he was stuffed on each and every attempt and had no backup plan to win that fight. I have leans on Chad Mendes, Johnny Hendricks, Mike Brown and Rory MacDonald, also big chalk sans Hendricks who I thought would be the underdog vs. Mike Pierce. Pass for now on those.

Heavy caulk on Evans is a good bet in my opinion. I have my doubts about Gustafsson. Gustafsson seems like he's going in the right direction but I cannot bet him even at the reduced line. Gustafsson opened at over -200 and was initially bet up. The big money came on Hamill and for good reason. My notes from review of Gustafsson. Vs. Hamman.... A bit lucky right after a glove touch from and eye poke he landed a big shot and finished with G&P. Hamman didn't defend himself well and got caught. Vs. Davis..... A bit flabby.. wrestled well with davis 1st half of first round.. faded, choked out end of 1st. Vs. Diabate... Shit TD attempt. wildish strikes. Good Pressure. Good Chin.. Winded end of 1st.. submission lacking skill Vs. Te-Huna.... controlled by te-huna first 3 mins - won by wearing out te-huna, sub'd a guy with little defense. Te-Huna adrenaline dump. I'm not laying chaulk on this guy. He looks better then he is. Think Grispi. (A lot of guys LOVE Gustafsson in this fight yet the line went the other way hard) Hamill isn't as bad as he looked against Jackson, he looked terrible and to me, looked like he struggled with the weight. Will wait for the weight in. Hamill is likely fading but there is little to no chance that Gustafsson will take Hamill down and submit him. I do think that Hamill is far to stubborn and doesn't take direction well. Look for Gustafsson to look good early and get worn down as the fight goes on.

[url]https://www.ufc.tv/ufc/video/ufc-133-weigh-in/685[/url] UFC link to the weigh in, if anyone needs it.

Hamil looked weak at the weigh in, but he's no chizzle freak anyways. Hamil will find a way to lose this fight rather win it with any skill which is his wrestling and even that has deteriorated. If he can dominate on the ground for three rounds he has a shot otherwise Gustafsson wins an easy decision with the stand up and clinching.

Interesting card, with a lot of line movement. I also like Evans over Ortiz. The best way to bet Evans, who is still available around -400, is likely in 2 man parlays. I'll post some of those a bit later. So far I've bet... Paul Bradley -140 to win a Unit. Hendricks -110 to win a Unit, I bet this more then a month ago and that line is LONG GONE. A Half unit on Hamill at +160 (ALF and many others are strong the other way) A Half unit on Pace +170 (Menjivar falled to make weight and elected to take the pay penalty instead of cutting weight again)

call me wrong way as well but i'll take a shot with tito as i did in his bout 3 weeks ago. not taxed at all against bader, basically extended his training camp, seemingly healthy, long,long layoff for rashad..... give me the shot at the + $$$.

Gentlemen - the whole parlay deal doesn't change anything as far as taking a big fave. He still has to win 80% of the time. Is there a lower priced option that looks good? Rashad by TKO/KO +280 or some other prop?

It is a fact he has to win that often, and I believe if they fought 10 times he'd win 9 or 10 of them. Maybe it is just me, but people need to FORGET Ortiz's last fight. His last good win was in 2006. Its the same feeling I have about Belfort. The name is far bigger then the talent. Yes Belfort should beat Akiyama but at that price forget it. +280 for that prop... you might get lucky. I'd think it would need to be +400 to be a good bet. Only guy to TKO Ortiz was Liddell?