Ufc 133 [B]UFC 133[/B]
[B]Tito Ortiz +361[/B] (16 - 8 – 1) vs. [B]Rashad Evans –420 [/B](15- 1 – 1)
Favored Evans would have to win at a rate of 80.8% or better to break even at -420 and for Ortiz its 21.7% at +361.
I bet Ortiz in their first match-up 4 years ago and was disappointed in the draw. Ortiz won 2 rounds to 1 but was penalized 1 point for holding on to the fence to avoid a takedown and thus the draw.
So what’s different since then…. a lot. Evans in my opinion has improved and at almost 32 should be hitting his prime. Tito on the other hand won his first bout against Ryan Bader just over a month ago and that was his first win since beating up a long over the hill Ken Shamrock back in 2006. Tito does claim to be healthy again after suffering from back trouble for some time now.
Rashad will be the quicker man with better stand up. The only chance Tito has is to take it to the ground and keep Evans there which I can’t see happening. The only possible negatives besides the line against Evans is the 14-month layoff and his change of camps. Despite this, I do not see him losing a round in this one.
I will not be laying –420 but will include ‘Suga’ Rashad Evans in a parlay.
[B]Rashad win.[/B]
[B]Yoshihiro Akiyama +261[/B] (13 - 3 – 0) vs. [B]Vitor Belfort -296 [/B](19- 9 – 1)
Favored Belfort would have to win at a rate of 74.7% or better to break even at -296 and for Akiyama its 27.7% at +261.
Akiyama has 1 win and 2 losses in the UFC and the win against Belcher was one you could argue should have gone to Belcher. As with most Japanese fighters trying their skill in the UFC, his has under performed.
I was one who got sucked into thinking Belfort had a shot with Anderson Silva. Wrong. He had a string of 5 victories before taking that kick to the chops by Silva. In this match up with Akiyama, I see Belfort taking it to Akiyama and adding another win to the win column.
Again the odds are not all that attractive at almost –300 so Belfort will be in my parlay too.
[B]Vitor win.[/B]
[B]Constantinos Philippou +130[/B] (7- 2 – 0) vs. [B]Jorge Rivera –144[/B] (19- 8 – 1)
Favored Rivera would have to win at a rate of 59.0% or better to break even at -144 and for Philippou its 43.5% at +130.
I don’t know much about Philippou, but his decision loss to 9 and 2 Nick Catone in his only UFC bout combined with him being a late replacement in this fight and Rivera’s experience has me leaning Jorge’s way in this one. Both fighters like to bang and I think the crafty close to 40 year old Rivera will get the best of it.
[B]
Rivera win.[/B]
[B]Dennis Hallman -116[/B] (50- 13 – 2) vs. [B]Brian Ebersole +105[/B] (47- 14 – 1)
Favored Hallman would have to win at a rate of 53.7% or better to break even at -116 and for Ebersole its 48.8% at +105.
Both these guys have had a pile of fights. 65 fights for the 35 year old Hallman and 63 for the 30 year old Ebersole. Hallman last fought to a win over Karo Parisyan 8.5 months ago while Ebersole surprised Chris Lytle just over 5 months ago.
Close to 80% of Hallman’s wins have come via submission whereas Ebersole has 43% by submission and 28% via (T)KO. I hate to say Hallman is a one trick pony because that one trick (submissions is outstanding) and he won his last fight by TKO. Ebersole although reportedly fighting an injured Chris Lytle showed a variety of skill. He’s very unorthodoxed and comes in on an 8 fight win streak and I think he will give Hallman fits in this one.
My money is on Ebersole.
[B]Ebersole win.[/B]
I am going to wait until after the weigh-in to throw any more out there.
