Ufc 135 James Te-Huna vs. Ricardo Romero
Romero is a lumbering fighter. He is a poor striker but has decent wrestling and very good submissions. Admittedly against weak and or sloppy opponents. Watching video of this guy sure isn't exciting.
Last time out, Romero's night was ended in about 20 seconds by Kingsbury. To me, it looked like a knee to the ribs was the telling blow. He looks very soft to the body, something that skilled opponents should capitalize upon.
Te-Huna is a Striker. He starts fast and often fades as the fight goes on though he did manage to go three full rounds a few fights ago. Last time out, he was beating Gustafasson until he noticably faded and was submitted nearing the end of the first round. My notes: Something happened was winning.
Gustafasson is closing in on Top Ten at 205 pounds. So the loss really cannot be considered terrible.
This fight is easy to diagram. Te-Huna will go for the KO, and Romero will try to take the fight to the mat and go for the submission.
The way I see it,
I cannot get past Romero's terrible stand up defense and wide open defense. Yes, if he can wear out Te-Huna he is likely to get the submission. Te-Huna, before losing to Gustafasson, was on a 5 fight TKO/KO streak. I'll take the striker in this fight. Romero's take-downs are sub-par. Many of his “take-downs” where be shear stupidity of the guys he was fighting. They would go for crazy fly knees or some other dumb move and Romero would latch on and get the take-down or in the case of Seth Petruzelli he simply gassed out and got sub'd in the second round.
I've parlayed Te-huna.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Cole Escovedo
Mizugaki is primary a striker but is rumored to have good wrestling. He seems to lack real power but has a great chin. He seems to fight somewhat to the level of his competition. Since coming state side, he's had 7 fights between the WEC and the UFC. He has wins over Reuben Duran, Rani Yahya and Jeff Curran. He has losses to Bowles, Faber, Jorgensen and Torres. Every fighter of those seven was or is an elite level fight with the possible exception of Curran. So he does have wins over a few good fighters but two of those were split decisions. Like I said, he may fight to the level of his competition.
Escovedo, is riding a streak of 3 losses out of his last 4 fights. He's a so-so striker with some submission ability and good cardio. Over all ratings of these fighters shows a very slight edge for Escovedo. Why? I cannot fathom. I cannot clearly remember why Escovedo got his last fight with Barao but I think it was as a replacement because he certainly wasn't given a UFC contract based off of his record.
The way I see it,
Mizugaki if he can remain aggressive should win this fight. Escovedo isn't particularly strong and doesn't fight well off of his back. Mizugaki should be able to out point Escovedo if he stays aggressive or get a trip take-down and work his decent ground and pound.
Mizugaki is a decent sized favorite at -200 to -250 and I'll be looking to lay the price possibly in a parlay. I just have a feeling that this fight is tailor made for Mizugaki. It looks good on paper but shouldn't be all that difficult of a fight for Mizugaki. Escovedo is likely fighting for his UFC life. Mizugaki isn't as there is a UFC card slated for his home country Japan, February 2012.
Junior Assuncao vs. Eddie Yagin
Assuncao seems to be primarily a submission guy. The video I watched of his recent fights showed that he was a decent striker as well. He seems some what well rounded. He is riding a 6 fight win streak against a bunch of low level fighters.
Yagin has won 7 of his last 8 fights only losing via doctor stoppage. (his face was f'd up)
He looks small and out of shape and he should be able to easily cut to 135. Though he's getting up there in age. (32) He seems to be primarily a striker. He throws over hand rights and is an aggressive fighter.
The way I see it,
Assuncao looks to have a decent size advantage in this fight. He has previous UFC experience but it was 5 years ago. I really don't get why these guys are fighting in the UFC. Neither should be in the big show. (The UFC has so many events now that we'll get treated to fights like this more often)
I've straight bet Assuncao -115 to win this fight. I think he's a cut above Yagin. Assuncao has never been KO'd. Of his 4 losses, Assuncao bowed out via submission to Pellegrino and Nate Diaz. Like I said it was 5 years ago.
Nick Ring vs. Tim Boetsch
Ring is 12-0 in his MMA career. You may remember Ring from the Ultimate Fighter show. He beat eventual champ Court McGee. Ring had to bow out because of his third serous knee injury. He made his UFC debut winning a very controversial decision over Riki Fukuda. (I scored the fight for Fukuda) It wasn't a clear robbery but it seems to me that the only round I could consider giving to Ring was the first round. In his next fight he beat James Head via 3rd round submission. Head clearly gassed out. Ring won the first and won the second 10-8. Ring isn't really good at any one thing. Just okay at most disciplines. Some consider him a striker as he has a few professional boxing matches. He fought turds and I think he had one KO and it was against a guy making his debut and that guy never fought again. His boxing pedigree is meaningless. He has 2 KO victories during his MMA career. Both against no-bodies.
Boetsch is a grapple fucker. Err... grapplefitch(er) He has good power as he has 7 KO's to his credit.
Last time out he grappledfitched Kendall Grove. Often treating him like a rag down. This guy is gorilla strong, fighting mostly at 205. He got his second chance in the UFC and after losting to Phil Davis at 205 he cut down to 185. Boetsch doesn't really excel at any one thing, other then fighting in the clinch.
He's excellent at that.
The way I see it,
I've never thought that Ring was anything special. He likes to ground and pound and he's fairly good at it. The question for him is can he actually out wrestle Boetsch. I don't think so. I see this fight as a bit of striking followed by Boetsch pushing Ring against the cage and beating him up there. I simply think that Boetsch will be to strong for Ring and that Ring doesn't offer anything that can negate that strength advantage.
Boetsch is available at-140 and I've parlayed him as well.
Tony Ferguson vs. Aaron Riley
Ferguson is making his UFC debut. He won the Ultimate Fighter 13 by KO'ing Nijam back in June. Ferguson has shown excellent power and a very underrated ground game. This is a bit of a mixed bag. Some TUF winners have proven to be quality UFC fighters some haven't faired so well. He has the look of being one of the better ones.
Riley.... this guy has 43 professional fights. He's coming off a 16 month lay off. He is an aggressive fighter but hasn't had either a submission win or KO win in 5 years!! He's just a guy with a lot of experience. He's fought and lost to many guys with much more talent.
How I see this fight,
Ferguson will have a 3 inch height advantage and a 7 inch reach advantage. This smells like a gift fight for Ferguson. He's likely considered a rising star in the UFC and this is a fight that likely will showcase his talents. Riley will put up a fight but I think that Ferguson is to big for Riley. Ferguson is a big favorite in this fight. -350 is a big price but I'll be considering Ferguson for a parlay.
