UFC 170 Rousey vs McMann

UFC 170 Rousey vs McMann UFC 170 is a PPV event and probably the weakest card for a PPV that I can recall. A little more than two years ago, Dana Hill said "Never" when asked when the UFC might allow a women's fight and now it is the main event. The co-main event is Daniel Cormier vs wrestler Patrick Cummins (subbing for the injured Rashad Evans) and that fight has now been priced at Cormier -1400 so not expected to be a real good match there. Prior to that, Rory McDonald will fight Demian Maia in what could possibly be a main event, but on FoxSports1 card, not a PPV card. The UFC must believe that there is enough interest/curiosity for the gals fight and Ronda that people will pay to see it. Have to think this will be a not so big a return for them on PPV and that it will be the last time in a long while we will see a card go off without a really attractive mens fight at that top. But it is what it is and after so many of the fights on the last card going OV the total, the bettors have sent it in on the Overs on this card. 10 of the 11 fights are juiced to the OV with only the deep undercard bout between Rafaello Oliveria and Erik Koch getting UN money. Have to agree on the Koch fight and took Koch wins fight inside distance -140. In the main event, the money has been in favor of the OV 1.5 and has been inching up to the -150 it is at now. After ending all her fights in the first round, it took into the third round to dispose of Meisha Tate last time out. Now the public believes the match vs the wrestler McMann means the fight will stay off the ground long enough to cash the Over. Rousey needs the fight to go to the ground to grab the arm eventually but vs a wrestler, maybe a little stand-up is the call to see if she can soften her up first. That total will probably continue to rise so bet now if you like it. The most interesting aspect of Rousey is the perfect run of wins by arm bar. Every win by arm bar submission makes one logically wonder if she can beat a top level women's fighter any other way. The price on Rousey to win rose to a high of -600 yesterday at the LVH but offshore you can still get Rousey at -470 or so. Online you can also get Rousey to win by submission at -160. Those two numbers seem more disparate than they really are. Price of -160 is a 61.5% BEP and -470 is an 82.5% BEP. So those odds say that 3 out of 4 times Rousey wins, it will be by submission. Tough lines to make when all you have to go on is a perfect record with all fights ending the exact same way. The submission bet can be looked at as a cheap way to bet Ronda, sort of how a lot of baseball betters elect to lay 1.5 runs -115 instead of taking a -200 fave. My problem with that tact is that I don't see any value in laying -500 or so with Rousey so to take the -160 might still be a reach on the exact result, even if you think there is little chance of a win in any way other than submission. A variation on the Polish Middle is also possible by taking McMann +400 along with a bet on Rousey -160 to win by submission. You can't win both but you can structure it so you still make decent coin if McMann wins. If Rousey wins by something OTHER than submission, you get scooped.