UFC fight night 24 (3/26)

UFC fight night 24 (3/26) This Saturday, the UFC gives us a free show. 4 shows on Spike TV and 5 fights on Facebook. Again the UFC isn't airing a few good fights. I'll go over most of the fights starting with the un-aired fights. Lentz vs. Lowe Lentz is on a 4 fight win streak and is 5-0-1 in the UFC. Lowe is 2-1 in the UFC. Lentz is simply better at all the important things in this fight. Lentz will have a reach advantage. Lowe looks strong but his wide chest will make his reach even shorter and he doesn't look to stand much at all. Lentz is decent off his back. Lentz sits at -180 on 5dimes and I think he wins this fight likely by decision. Simpson vs. Miranda What to say... Simpson is getting old but Miranda simply sucks. Miranda will have a 4" height advantage but the reach is equal. Simpson is simply better at every aspect of this fight. Simpson sits at -210 and I've included him in my first parlay. Hendricks vs. Walburger I haven't seen Walburger fight in any legitimate league. I did view some older footage of his but it was against tomato cans. Hendricks is better then most but for a former Wrestling National champ, I'd think he'd be better at TD's. He needs to cut to 155. He isn't big enough for the elite guys at 170. That being said, he likely is far to experienced to lose to Walburger. I see Hendricks winning a decision. -345 "big sexy" McCorkle vs. Morecraft These two giants have limited UFC experience and they both have limited skills. McCorkle is likely better on the ground but Morecraft has far better cardio and speed. Both have questionable chins. Morecraft is -210 and likely better and is 10 years younger. Look to bet this fight inside the distance. I cannot see this lasting three full rounds. McDonald vs Figueroa McDonald is a big favorite and hasn't gone the distance in any of his 12 fights. He's only 20 years old. I simply do not have enough information about either fighter to lay -325. Hathaway vs McCray McCray is the wrestler in this fight. Hathaway is the striker. McCray has 7 takedowns in his 2 submission LOSSES. Hathaway, was on a great win streak until he ran into Mike Pyle. Pyle is a B/B+ fighter and he owned Hathaway on the ground. Hathaway never seemed to get off his back. He has a HUGE hole in his game. Does McCray have the skill to take Hathaway down and control him? Not likely. McCray can get the takedowns but his lack of G&P and top control are lacking. Hathaway is a big favorite at -340. This is likely the last we see of McCray. Hathaway but decision as I don't think he has big power. Hathaway's useful but will never likely be an elite fighter but he's young so who knows.

"Bruce Leroy" Caceres vs Semerzier Semerzier has lost his last three fights at WEC and likely only made it to the UFC because of his contract. (or pictures of Dana blowing a horse but I digress) Caceres lost midway through UF12 and likely only got in the big show because of his antics on the show. His fighting was lacking but was entertaining. I have no film on Semerzier. Caceres fought in UF12 at 155 and has cut to 145 which looks a lot better on him. He looked at the weigh in a lot more cut. In a fight that is meaningless, with two fighters that are B fighters at best I lean to Caceres likely by submission but I won't bet this fight. Madsen vs. Russow Russow is overweight and TERRIBLE. In his last fight he proved a few things. He can take a punch. Duffee beat the crap out of Russow for 2.5 rounds or so, then a bolt of lighting hit and Russow KTFO of Duffee. Amazing come from behind win. He won't get that chance against Madsen. Madsen is also overweight and should cut to 205, but he keeps adding weight on. He did look more cut at the weigh in then I recalled. Madsen is on a 4 fight winning streak and has generally looked decent. This fight comes down to Russow's cardio. Madsen will mash him against the cage, lean that 261 pounds into Russow, who will gas. I'd say that Madsen likely cannot KO Russow because Russow's chin is made of granite but I simply cannot see Russow making it 3 rounds against Madsen. Russow is a Chicago cop. I doubt he is training regularly and has been off for 10 months. Madsen isn't going anywhere fast so they feed him Russow to end Russow's contract with the UFC. I bet Madsen -300 in a parlay. Garcia vs Jung Being that I was never into the WEC I haven't seen what I'm told may have been fight of the decade when these guys met last time. Someone else here can comment on this fight. The guys I read an listen to like Jung by decision in this fight -115. I have no opinion to offer. I've very interested in seeing them fight.

Sadollah vs Damarques Johnson I don't have a many of the Fight Nights on DVD so Johnson is a bit of a mystery to me. That being said, just looking at the stats and at the two fights I was able to see, I see that he's been out struck in most every fight. Johnson doesn't have a wrestling background but he did train Jiu Jutsu in the Army and has trained for a long time with Jeremey Horn, a good ground guy. He's 3-2 in the UFC. He isn't anything special. Amir Sadollah is a well rounded fighter. (what a cliche) He shows good boxing form and uses kicks very well. His only terrible lose was to Kim one of the best wrestler's/ground guys in the world. Yes he lost to Hendricks but I think that was due to a lack of experience and likely the shock factor of Hendrick's throwing punches. Sadollah is -250 and it seems about right. Yes Johnson could catch a leg kick and take this to the mat but Sadollah has continued to improve each time out and is likely the better fighter at this stage. Johnson hasn't shown that he's even a very good wrestler on the ground. His wins via submission where fluky to say the least. Hardy vs. Anthony Johnson If you don't know these guys you don't watch UFC even in passing. Both of these guys don't know much about being on the mat other then when they where getting abused on it. Everyone thinks that this fight will be a stand up fight. If Hardy's smart he'll get Johnson on the ground and take him out that way. Not that Hardy has ever shown any desire to do so. He has 6 UFC fights and has two takedowns. Johnson is coming off a 15 month layoff. Don't sleep on long layoffs almost everyone I've seen off a long layoff has been very rusty. Johnson may be thinking that after the long layoff that he may want to take this to the mat. I doubt it. Both of these guys have big ego's and will want to fight standing up. Johnson cuts a ton of weight and will be the much bigger man in the ring. Johnson has to cut 30 or more pounds to make weight. (insane) This fact leads to him having cardio issues. The problem he has is that he's not an elite striker and at 185 he'd get owned by many fighters. I've flipped back and forth on this fight. Both fighters have their pro's and con's but I think that with the plus number I lean to Hardy to figure this one out. If Hardy loses it will be his third in a row. Though it is unlikely that he'd get cut as he's a good draw and a colorful character. Lil Nog vs P. Davis. Phil Davis is a dominate wrestler. One of the best in the UFC at any weightclass. Nogueira (the lesser known one) hasn't shown much in the UFC and is likely fighting for his UFC life. Davis is a monster favorite in this fight. Nogueira even though he's listed at 34 is likely older and has shown it. Though in his last loss to Bader he moved a lot better then in the Brilz fight. At the weigh in he looked lean and mean. I gotta think that Davis can control this fight on the ground and Nogueira even though hes a BJJ black belt has shown that good wrestlers can get him to the ground. So it likely goes that Davis takes him down and lays on him for 3 rounds and wins by decision as Davis doesn't likely have the strength to submit the man who has never been submitted. Davis's G&P is weak and Nogueira can fight off his back. In a stunning upset I'm leaning with Nogueira in this fight but I'm not going to bet it. Davis is a big favorite and for good reason. So far I've made one wager I parlayed Simpson and Madsen 1.15 to win 1 unit. Let me know where you think I'm wrong!!! GL

Added Lentz and Sandollah in a parlay 1 unit to win 1.04 GL

Say it ain't so... "the frito bandito" was cut from UFC last week!! Oh, the humanity!!!

Super job with this card Tru! Solid write-ups appreciate the work, I cannot add much here. I have handicapped the card extensively and I like 4 fights, but as in all of them, the price has gone up and up, lots of chalk. So we'll play a couple of parlays with... Phil Davis -270, Jon Madsen -325, John Hathaway -330.....and another with Madsen, Hathaway and John Hendricks -317.

Hathaway needs to fire his camp. They are idiots. Telling him to take McCray down in the third where he may have needed a KO to win. I had McCray winning the first two but it was close. Hathaway needed to stay on his feet in the third and go for the KO. STUPID Cornerman. What where they thinking??

That was a digusting effort on the part of Madsen. He might as well have stayed home. Diappointing to say the least.

[QUOTE=Hicksey;41118]That was a digusting effort on the part of Madsen. He might as well have stayed home. Diappointing to say the least.[/QUOTE] Well then I guess I'm lucky I thought the fight was on t.v. and turned facebook off. Wow, Madsen must have regressed losing to Russow. sucks.

[QUOTE=truushot;41120]Well then I guess I'm lucky I thought the fight was on t.v. and turned facebook off. Wow, Madsen must have regressed losing to Russow. sucks.[/QUOTE] Tru, you didn't miss much. Russow took the center of the ring and threw a few rights and pushed Madsen against the cage. Madsen couldn't do anything and was tired before the edn of the 1st round and that was after doing nothing. Hope to see a good one to start of Spike card with Garcia and Jung.