UFC Live 4 [B]Nate Marquardt +111 (31 - 10 – 2) vs. Rick Story –123 (13 - 3 – 0)[/B]
Favored Story would have to win at a rate of 55.2% or better to break even at -123 and for Marquardt its 47.4% at +111.
Marquardt makes his debut at 170 pounds. Always difficult handicapping a fighter in his first fight after dropping a weigh division. Marquardt has split his last 4 fights. His weakness has been his wrestling and inability to stay off his back. It’s cost me money in both the Okami and Sonnen defeats.
Story’s strong points include his wrestling and ability to control opponents along with an iron jaw. He took some huge bombs from Alves in the 3rd round in his last fight. He would be best served to take the same game plan he had in the first 2 rounds against Alves and control Marquardt with his superior wrestling and wear him done. Marquart’s stamina at 170 is unknown as of yet.
Another win and victory over Marquardt puts Story in title contention. No reason Story who should be sharp after just fighting 4 weeks ago with a smart game plan can’t put another “W” in the win column over the veteran Marquardt.
[B]Story win.[/B]
[B]Patrick Barry +176 (6 - 2 – 0) vs. Cheick Kongo –196 (15 - 6 – 2)[/B]
Favored Kongo would have to win at a rate of 66.2% or better to break even at -196 and for Barry its 36.2% at +176.
Both fighters have loss 2 of their last 4 fights with Kongo losing to Mir and Velasquez while Barry was submitted by Hague and Cro Cop. Both combatants have good striking. Barry has deadly leg kicks.
The taller and bigger Kongo would be best served using his improved grappling/wrestling to control Barry in this match up and eventually putting him on his back before eating too many of those Barry leg kicks and that’s what I see happening in this fight. Kongo only has 3 submissions in his 15 victories but the opportunity might arise after he ground and pounds Barry.
[B]Kongo win. [/B]
Hope for some time to add more before fight night. My only bet so far is a small parlay with a [B]6.05 return[/B]:
Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 6/26/11 11:00pm UFC Fighting [B]1101 Rick Story -130*[/B] vs Nate Marquardt
Pending 6/26/11 10:30pm UFC Fighting [B]1202 Cheick Kongo -200*[/B] vs Pat Barry
Pending 6/26/11 10:00pm UFC Fighting [B]1302 John Howard -255*[/B] vs Matt Brown
Pending 6/26/11 9:00pm UFC Fighting [B]1402 Matt Mitrione -265*[/B] vs Christian Morecraft
Pending 6/26/11 5:00pm UFC Fighting [B]1502 Tyson Griffin -260*[/B] vs Manvel Gamburyan
