Jason Reinhardt vs. Edwin Figueroa
Last time out Figueroa was clearly beaten by (taken it to the streets) Micheal McDonald. It was a very good fight and won fight of the night. Figueroa had taken the fight on 7 days notice. Reinhardt was submitted by Zhang within the first minute of the fight. Reinhardt had come out of retirement likely because the UFC was short of fighters. He hadn't fought in more then 2 years. He looked ripped but at 41 he doesn't have it any more and likely never did. At one point he was 18-0, all against fighters that would only be recognized by family.
Figueroa is -360 and with his limited experience it would be hard to recommend a bet on this fight. It is likely that Reinhardt is there for a payday and Figueroa should be to much for the old man.
Volkmann vs Castillo
Both have wrestling backgrounds. Blah, blah blah. Who cares. I lean Castillo as a slight dog.
Miller vs O'Brien
Cole Miller is a monster favorite in this fight and I think that he's rounded into the clearly better fighter. It might be a somewhat decent fight as both guys are chinny and neither has very good power. Pass this fight, Miller should win but at -425 or worse it isn't worth any investment.
Caceres vs Hettes
Hettes is making his UFC debut. Hettes has 8 wins all by submission. 6 in the first round and 2 in the second. Alex "bruce leeroy" Caceres is a joke. He has no business being in the UFC. He was submitted last time out by Semerzier who shouldn't be in the UFC either. At -400 or so I just cannot get behind Hettes. He should win by submission and likely early in the fight.
Vermola vs Markes
Vermola is now in his second fight at 205. He fought and lost to Madsen at 222 pounds. His first fight at 205 he didn't look at that great, but he did TKO Petruzelli for what thats worth. (not a whole lot) Markes is a Brazilian fighter who has fought a bit in Europe. Based on the film I watched, he seems to be a striker first/ ground and pound guy. He didn't look all that impressive at that. His big win was against Filho who isn't the man who won a Pride tournament years ago. He's fought and beat basically bodies. Guys making there MMA debuts and guys with more losses then wins.
I like Vermola in this fight but you may want to put him in a parlay as he's -230.
Noke vs Hermann
Noke should win but I'll pass.
Benevidez vs Wineland.
Benevidez has only been beaten by the champion Cruz. He's a wild striker and is an excellent grappler. Wineland is a striker with good head movement and decent takedown defense. Last time out Benevidez beat Ian "the barn owl" Loveland. It was a fight that was harder then many expected for Benevidez. I think that is more of a reflection of Loveland then Benevidez. Loveland was on a 7 fight win streak and had dropped down to 135 for the first time. He's a huge dude at 135 with what looked like serious power.
Wineland is coming off a loss to Faber. Wineland fought well in the first round, and managed to avoid Faber's takedowns in that frame. In the second Faber got the takedown and dominated the round from top control. In the third, it seems that Wineland was fading a bit. It was a close fight.
Benevidez trains with Faber at American top team and should have a very good idea of what Wineland brings to the table. The biggest differences in this fight will be that Wineland will have a reach advantage but I think that Benevidez is far better then Faber at taking people down. I think that this is another bad matchup for Wineland. Benevidez will get him down and control the action. I think Benevidez would beat Faber. He's younger and faster then Faber.
AT -270 this is a big number but I think that Benevidez gets it done. I parlayed Benevidez with Figueroa at 1.3 to win 1.
Dollaway vs Hamman
Hamman is dropping down in weight for this fight and looked good at the weigh in. Dollaway should take this fight to the ground and easily win this fight. Dollaway has a questionable chin but Hamman couldn't stop my 12 year old kid from taking him down. He's simply terrible at takedown defense. He has been taken down 20 TIMES in his last two fight. He did managed to scramble up on most of those take downs. The difference is, Dollaway does have decent top control and likely will be able to hold him down, likely grinding out a decision victory or maybe getting a submission. Dollaway is -255 and I didn't bet this fight.
Sadollah vs Ludwig
Sadollah is just priced to high to get involved with. He isn't likely the better straight striker but his overall game is far better then Ludwig.
Oliveira vs Cerrone
Oliveira showed that he is a dynamic fighter both against J. Miller and Nik "the carney" Lentz. He was scrambling well with Miller until Miller caught him out of position and submitted Oliveira. Against Lentz he looked like he was winning the fight and was awarded the victory. It was overturned as Oliveira clearly kneed Lentz to the face while Lentz was on the mat. Cerrone has dominated lower level guys only losing to Varner which he later won the rematch quickly and lost twice to Ben Henderson. First time with Henderson was Sherdog's fight of year 2009. Cerrone was quickly submitted by Henderson in the rematch. Cerrone is a devastating leg striker but I think his hands are weak and his defense leaves a lot to be desired. I'm leaning Cerrone in this fight due to experience. This fight could go either way though.
Miller vs Henderson
Jim Miller is on a very long winning streak and has only lost to the top two fighters in the division. He's a decent striker, a very good grappler and has very good submissions. Henderson is the better athlete, has decent strikes, decent submissions and good grappling. Henderson could be the stronger fighter here and may have the better wrestling. Both fighters have a lot of experience. Tough fight to call. I think that Miller gets it done, but Henderson certainly has a good shot at winning.
Lytle vs Hardy
Lytle is no set to retire after this fight. Hardy really sucks. His only wins are against guys that are at best B level UFC fighters though Lytle isn't much better. I bet Lytle but do not recommend him at this point because of the retirement. I'm still considering taking the small lose and betting Hardy. I just don't know. That being said this is should be a very good fight. Both fighters letting it all hang out.
