UFC on FOX

UFC on FOX Observations and commentary: [B]Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos[/B] Cain, the champ comes into the biggest fight in MMA history (first televised on network TV) undefeated. He has tremendous stamina for a HW, a great wrestling game and can punch and kick. Not seen his sub game. He comes in the favorite and continues to climb line wise. He has the tools and heart to beat any HW on the planet. What I don't like is weighing in at his heaviest - 249. And as important is his over 1 year layoff due to a shoulder injury and surgery. Jr. comes in with a 13-1 record, undefeated in his 7 UFC fights. He has great boxing skills, light footed. He had been KO'ing everyone until his last 2 fights where he went the decision despite murdering his opponents Carwin and Nelson. I hear he is no slouch on the ground but I've not seen him there to give an opinion. If fight stays on the feet, I see the underdog JDS pulling off the upset. I just can't imagine if Cain is losing a stand up battle that he does try and succeed bringing this to the mat. The big question is can JDS get once put down. I want to put money on JDS with Cain's long layoff, should surgery and weighing in at 249, but am having trouble pulling the trigger. [B]Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida[/B] Clay is the true energizer bunny who has benefited tremendously IMO by moving to the Jackson camp. His sole avenue to win is to get Henderson on his back and keep him there for 3 rounds. I just don't see that happening. Jim Miller couldn't get Henderson down and took a beating. Henderson's only recent loss came against Anthony Pettis. He beat a great fighter Donald Cerrone twice and I see another victory for him tomorrow night. Steep odds though with Henderson anywhere between -265 to -280 range. [B]Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama[/B] If the kid (-400 range) can't beat UFC newcomer Darren Uyenoyama with a Japan coming up in the near future, he and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva messed up. At these odds though, only worth a look in parlay if at all. [B]Mackens Semerzier vs. Robert Peralta[/B] Mackens Semerzier 6-3, 2-3 in WEC/UFC fights takes on 15-3, (11 KOs) 2-0 in UFC/Strikeforce fights Robert Peralta. Not much to say here other than I see the younger Peralta getting the W against Semerzier who has fought in a little over 6 months. Peralta stays off the mat and picks apart with strikes. [B]Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradley[/B] Mike Pierce lost his last fight against very game Johny Hendricks by spilt decision. He impressed me in that fight. Most of that fight was on the feet with only 1 takedown by each. Pierce has been king takedown wise in 5 of his last 6 fights only being outwrestled by Fitch (nothing to be ashamed of). I didn't think he looked great at weigh in. He and his wife just had a new daughter in the past 10 days. No matter what fighter says, my experience has shown the distraction certainly didn't help them. The chiseled well conditioned Bradley sporting a 18-3 record, 0-1 in UFC has not faced the same level of talent. If Pierce looked better on the scale and didn't just have a new baby, I'd be on him and couple that with -335ish odds, I'll either include him in a parlay or just watch this one. Maybe more tomorrow.