The Ultimate Fighter 13 Final

The Ultimate Fighter 13 Final Money has moved steadily to Guida. Any thoughts?

[QUOTE=truushot;43465]Money has moved steadily to Guida. Any thoughts?[/QUOTE] Here is what I see. The younger Pettis (24) with 14 fights takes on the veteran Guida (29) with 39 fights. Pettis last fought a little over 5 months ago and Guida just under 5 months ago. Pettis will have a reach advantage with a 3 inch height advantage. Guida has fought the better competition. And most people will remember Pettis' last fight against Henderson where he did the wall walk and got off a kick to the head of Henderson. I myself got caught up with still being in awe with that fight thinking at first that Pettis was going to walk through Guida. Not so quick. Guida now under the tutelage of Greg Jackson has entered his last few fights not so wrecklessly and more with a game plan. He is an energizer bunny who never seems to get tired. When he gets someone to the mat, it is very difficult to get up. The more I look at this fight, the more I see it closer to being a pick em and I am now not surpised that the line is heading in that direction.

Ouch! Pettis -165, going down? Thought he opened -150? I couldn't disagree with my two fighting comrades more. Take another look at who Guida has fought. Not exactly murderers row. I'm working more on the TUF card, I'll try and attend the weigh in Friday, (finally back on my feet again) talk to a few people that I know are part of the TUF working crew, get their take and then submit my write up, but I'll say now, I'll be heavy on Pettis.

The line has moved up and down now. I'm in agreement that Pettis likely wins this fight. The issue I have not resolved in my head is the style of takedowns by Guida. The wrestlers that Pettis has beaten are hip high takedown guys. Guida's takedowns are low leg. Yes Guida has slowed. Yes in a stand up contest this is a complete mismatch, Pettis is a far superior striker. I think that Guida is likely stronger then Pettis. If Guida gets top control, Pettis has good subs from his back but Guida doesn't put himself in situations to get triangled from top position. This fight is likely close. Pettis doesn't have big power, and Guida does have a good chin. Roller's wrestling is over rated and his top control blows so it really isn't a good comparison. If Pettis has a better jab and a bit more power he rolls in this fight. It is also Pettis's first time in the UFC where many people struggle the first time under the bright lights. I'm undecided at this point but lean Pettis.

Glad to hear your back is better Alf and you are up and about again. I went back and looked at each fighter's last 5 fights. The best 2 in my opinion that Guida fought are Florian and Sanchez and he lost to both. Five years ago I would have included Gomi but not anymore. Pettis' toughest tests came his last 2 fights with Henderson (best competition of all of them) and Roller. L5 Guida 3W - 2L Takanori Gomi (32 - 7 - 0) Win Submission (Guillotine Choke) Round 2 Rafael dos Anjos (14 - 5 - 0) Win Submission (Jaw Injury) Round 3 Shannon Gugerty (13 - 6 - 0) Win Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) Round 2 Kenny Florian (13 - 5 - 0) Loss Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) Round 2 Diego Sanchez (23 - 4 - 0) Loss Decision (Split) I realize records alone are meaningless unless you factor in the competition, but for the record,the combined records of these five are 95 - 27 - 0. L5 Pettis 4W - 1L Benson Henderson (13 - 2 - 0) Win Decision (Unanimous) Shane Roller (10 - 3 - 0) Win Submission (Triangle Choke) Round 3 Alex Karalexis (10 - 5 - 0) Win Submission (Triangle Choke) Round 2 Danny Castillo (11 - 3 - 0) Win KO (Head Kick and Punches) Round 1 Bart Palaszewski (35 - 14 - 0) Loss Decision (Split) Records of competition are 79 - 17 - 0 I see Pettis as another potential UFC golden boy, perhaps not to the level I see Stann, but he's a very marketable fighter for the organization. I read Pettis is very popular with the younger lady demographic. I said last week, rightly or wrongly that the UFC would not have matched Stann up with Santiago if they thought he wasn't the best. I now believe the same holds true here. I was listening to MMA Junkie radio today and heard something that I thought made sense. Comment was made that no matter who the fighter/veteran is, the first fight in the "UFC" always plays with ones nerves. It was then mentioned that having Pettis fight his first real UFC fight in a UFN event is best for him. Less people in attendance and a much quitter place being at The Pearl at the Palms. Looking forward Alf to your write up after seeing the weigh-ins and talking to people.

The cage for this event is smaller. From memory, it is the same size as the ones from the WEC. Normally, I'd say the smaller cage favors Guida, but at least it will have the same feel as the WEC cage for Pettis's first fight.

showing pettis -210, is this a lesson in value by taking guida???

[QUOTE=tvrw34243;43537]showing pettis -210, is this a lesson in value by taking guida???[/QUOTE] Money is moving rapidly to Pettis. I saw it as low at -150 Pettis. It opened, or at least the first time I saw it was -170 on 5dimes and it did move to Guida at first. Now dimes is at -200 from -180 this morning. I lean Pettis, and I think he does have the ability to stuff the takedowns, but Guida is relentless attempting takedowns and he will be unlike anything Pettis has faced in that regard. Guida has to know that he cannot win a standup fight.

Pettis is now -200 or higher because I posted it and our resident "fight doctor" Truushot is backing us up as well as big MMA fight fan/handicapper Hicksey. There are deep pockets waiting in line for this stuff and they are happy to lay it and some will play it back for a scalp...also most followers of the main stream sports are losing consistently and we are killing the UFC matchups.