The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale Reuben Duran vs Francisco Rivera
This one, for obvious reasons is off the radar of most people. I think that this is actually one of the easiest fights to pick on the card. Both of these guys only got to the UFC because they where late replacements for injured fighters. Rivera, has 0 quality wins on his resume and was KO'd by a head kick in his first UFC fight Duran has a few so-so wins and lost his UFC debut in a split decision against Mizugaki. He fought a very good fight, and showed he may actually have a shot in the UFC. I see a complete class difference in this fight. The odds don't reflect it because bettors are ignoring this fight.
-210 Duran, I've parlayed him and bet him straight.
Jorgensen vs Stone
Stone's got a very nice record. It contains a laundry list of the best in grocery store baggers and movie ticket takers. Though he does train with American's top team. Which does carry a bit of weight.
Jorgensen, recently was dominated by Cruz in a championship fight. He has recent wins over Brad Pickett and Banuelos.
I don't see this fight as all that close. Stone will try to keep his distance to utilize striking but certainly isn't the best striker that Jorgensen has faced. Jorgensen is also a monster on the mat where this fight is likely to go considering that Stone has a height and reach advantage. Jorgensen is simply to skilled for Stone and the odds reflect this.
I've parlayed Jorgensen.
Harvison vs Edwards.
I've watched the fights.... and I just don't care. I'd lean Edwards but would never consider betting this fight. Edwards seems to be better and I think Harvison has bad cardio and no heart. Pass
Bailey vs McGillivary
Bailey is better on the ground. McGillivary is likely better standing. Who cares. Pass
Grispi vs Roop
Grispi was on a roll until he ran into Poirier in a fight he was favored to win. Grispi seems to be very injury prone. He does have a few very nice wins. Hominick, Pulver and LC Davis.
Roop beat Jung as his best win. If you saw that fight, it could lead anyone to believe that Jung was stoned or something. If you stand still in front of most any mma fighter with your hands at your waist you will likely get KO'd from a kick to the head. Roop did fight Garcia to a draw as well.
Grispi should simply be far to much for Roop. Roop has adopted that "pogo stick" type of movement to try to hide his terrible chin. Grispi even being shorter in this fight has a reach advantage and if far more muscular and a better wrestler.
Grispi gets back on track in this fight.
I've parlayed Grispi as well.
Stephens vs Downes
Stephens, though only being 24 years old has been fighting in the UCF for 4 years. This will be Downes fist fight in the UFC. Both are strikers. 1 inch reach advantage for Downes. Downes is a replacement and took this fight with about 25 days notice.
I don't think that this fight is close. Stephens is very powerful striker the likes that Downes has never fought against. Stephens simply is to powerful and to experienced for Downes.
I've parlayed Stephens as the odds are huge.
O'Neil vs Cope
Cope is a turd. O'Neil is a more polished turd. O'Neil should win this fight but I'll pass. O'Neil has more experience.
Kingsbury vs Maldonado
Kingsbury is a physical specimen, what all of us fat or flappy guys should aspire to look like. (no homo) Kingsbury is likely far superior on the ground but I fear that he's falling in love with his standup; which isn't bad but certainly isn't elite yet.
Maldonado has a 22-0 boxing record with 21 KO's. Yes they where against mostly tomato cans but it is impressive none the less. Last time out he was taking a beating from McSweeney in the first round. He weathered the storm and landed some great body shots and got the TKO stoppage in the third. He may have broken McSweeney's rib. McSweeney also had recently dropped down from Heavyweight so his power should have been very good at 205. This guy has a very good chin and a good heart.
The odds have Kingsbury as a big favorite and I've been tempted to small bet Maldonado. If Kingsbury is smart this goes to the ground and he'll win. If he stands with Maldonado he could be in for a rough evening.
Creduer vs Herman
Two guys that have been off for 16 months or more. Pass
Guida vs Pettis.
Alf laid this fight out well. I lean Pettis.
Nijem vs Ferguson
While it is difficult to determine how these guys have improved from the show, I'm going with Ferguson in this fight. He showed market improvement with his standup as the event progressed. He is a patient and accurate striker. We didn't get to see much of him on the ground other then the upkick KO he had against Edwards but he has three submission victories on his resume. He made quick work of Mcgillivray and after a close first round beat the crap out of O'Neil.
Nijem is mostly a wrestler and didn't even seem all that skilled at that. He did KO Cope with a wild flurry but it was more a case of Cope being caught by suprise and Cope's bad chin.
I think that Nijem could get this fight to the floor and win the first round. He likes to press people against the cage and work for takedowns. His ground and pound wasn't all that great and it seemed that his submissions where more from his opponents lack of skill then his own skill.
I've bet Ferguson straing at -110.
I think that Ferguson is the more experienced fighter will more ways to win. Nijem hasn't faced a striker as good as Ferguson seems to be.
