WGC Accenture Matchplay Finals

Don't like "value"? Then lets call it edge. You need to know (or have a good idea or way to estimate) your edge to be able to bet proper amounts in sports. That being said, one of the hardest things in sports may be to properly evaluate how much edge you have. With an edge of 50+ cents (20? 30? 40?) you can't bet enough.

Wasn't sniping at you. For years have heard "bet that for value." OK, what does that mean? Agree, edge works.

[QUOTE=Alf M;40287]value is the most overrated concept in sports handicapping IMO[/QUOTE] I'm trying to understand this... isn’t finding positive expected VALUE the entire premise of betting? I can only interpret this as you believe bettors vary their bet sizes too much based on not being able to evaluate their edge/value properly? Is that correct?

Yes. Too much expectation put on value can be unhealthy. We can spin this topic for days. With money line bets, I'd rather have the right side than the extra value. With point spread bets it's still lopsided, although I will rarely play a football game if I do not believe I have the best of the number. Right side, with the best price is optimum. How many guys see a money line of +120 and think that it is way off, should be -120 and bet multiple units? Ridiculous!

How Many brothers does RAS have?

Confused [QUOTE=Alf M;40305] With money line bets, I'd rather have the right side than the extra value.[/QUOTE] Could you explain this to a novice please Alf. How do you know til after the game if you have the right side??

If I understand correctly, he'd rather lay the chalk when he is sure they would win than take the dog just because the line is inflated. It is a corollary to his "I have a drawer full of value bets" line. I have to say that I am having a hard time with this. If I think a team/fighter/golfer has an X% chance of winning, then the money line will tell me whether to back or fade every time. This talk about "the right side" implies a 100% chance of that side winning, therefore meaning the amount of chalk is immaterial. I am ready to be corrected!

The other thing I am confused about is the multiple unit debate. It seems to me that if someone was flipping a coin and offered me +101 on the flip I would want to bet as it is positive EV but if he offered me +500 I would bet MUCH more. This bet could still lose though and not be the "right side". And maybe that is what I am missing is the small subsets we are dealing with.

The amount you bet is affected by the amount of edge you think you have. But, yes, you never bet more than a certain percentage of your bankroll on any particular event. Something about Kelly criterion. I can't remember the specifics anymore. I read it, learned it, figured out what to do with it, and forgot the rest :)