WGC Match Play

WGC Match Play A golden opportunity tomorrow (Wednesday) at the Match Play. Weather conditions are going to be terrible, which should neutralize any talent advantages. Current odds do not reflect this. Take a long, hard look at underdogs and jump at the odds as I did in the matches below. Gallacher +185 over Poulter - Gallacher just won in his last start in Dubai and Poulter hasn't played in a long time. Lowry +215 Mcilroy - The old geezer Steve Lowery would probably have a better chance of beating McIlroy than this bum, but I'm taking the odds anyway due to weather and McIlroy being rusty while also breaking in new clubs. Wood +165 over Bubba - Bubba won't like bad weather and he's coming off a missed cut in LA. Ramsay +205 over Oosty - Ramsay made field, didn't he? So there must be a reason. Oosty only 1 start in last 6 weeks and that was lackluster. Fraser +175 over K Bradley - Good Desert swing over in the Emirates for Fraser....Keegan nothing special this year. Jaidee +150 over Garcia - Jaidee 3 top 10's in last 4 Euro starts...and also a 3-1 match play record on this course. Howell +200 over Tiger - Tiger will be playing the next two weeks back home so he will be tempted to mail this one in and return to sunny Florida. Henley +180 over Schwarzel - Don Henley would probably have a better chance of beating Schwartzel than this bum, but I'm taking odds strictly due to the weather. Clark +165 over Scott - Short hitting Clark is 4-2 on this track, while Scott is 1-4. Stricker -110 over Stenson - Stricker should handle conditions much better than Stenson. My biggest fear is for Round 1 to be postponed and have to root for these underdogs in perfect weather conditons on Thursday. Let's hope they make them gut it out and play in the elements. Record 4-5 (-1.35 units)

I think you have a great theme and some solid ideas. Gallacher is all square with Poulter now and he seems like a good player. Poulter priced based on Ryder Cup and notoriety but I think has actually gone out early in this event recently. A great deal of discussion regarding Rory as well with Faldo and a few analysts questioning all of the changes he's making to his game. I hear Lowry is someone who knows him quite well playing together in Ireland. I don't know him either. There certainly is also an element that might be playing out that many North Americans have never heard of some of these golfers. But European bettors would have heard of all of them so might be better at differentiating the matchups. Not sure how this plays into lines because the Europeans could figure it out but maybe they don't. (Or watch golf channel all day if in North America) They are all in the top 66 but we also know that when Tiger is matched up with even Phil he is often -150 in a 4 round event. For one round he might be -130 let's say. If he's matched with a guy way down the list it makes some sense that Tiger or Rory are going to be close to -200 or more. For one round that seems like too much but the nature of the event does seem to lend to more grizzled players who are used to shooting it out for championships so maybe this one round has to be treated closer to an actual tournament. However, there is likely a Tiger or Rory premium in numbers anyway that often any value has to be to bet against them if you do anything. But it is hard not to argue that at least some of these big names you figure might come out flat in this. I mean how does Tiger get up for Howell? On Sunday for sure but less on Wednesday I think. That is not enough to win for Howell of course but has to be considered in the price IMO. The weather is another insight. Hope you nail some of these these are nice plus money if you do.

MATCH PLAY - ROUND 2 Garrigus +120 over Oosty. Garrigus was 5 up on Branden Grace after just 8 holes (including -5 on his ball) before putting Grace out of his mistery on hole #14. Aside from Jason Day, probably the most impressive performace of Day 1. Oosty struggled against Ramsay before finally taking control late. Garrigus is red hot..22nd or better in last 9 of 10 starts. Oosty favored just becasue he is number #1 seed. Garrigus is the real favorite in this match. Kuchar (even) over Garcia. Kuchar is simply the better golfer. Stricker -108 over Watney. Same old Stricker even with taking lots of time off. T. Clark -105 over Oleson. Clark now 5-2 at Dove Mountain....says he has a better chance on this course than at previous Match Play venues, where he was 1-5. Oleson won his match even though he shot +2 against Donaldson. Record 10-9 (+5.0 units)

Match Play - Round 3 Kuchar -113 over Colsearts. Kuchar now 10-4 at Dove Mountain, and while Colsearts has won his first two matches, he's been in poor form this year so look for his demons to finally surface agaisnt the rock solid Kuchar. Fernandez-Costano +120 over Webb Simpson. Simpson is only -2 on his ball through 32 holes, which is next to last of all players that have made sweet 16. Only Jacobson is worse at even par through 33 holes. Fernandez-Costano has had a very solid year on the Euro tour so far, and Webb supposedly hasn't slept much for days with he and his kid fighting a cold. Early tee time tomorrow after late finish today will be too much for Webb to handle. Record 14-9 (+9.2 units)

Great job John...good luck today.

Thanks, Skeeter. Round 4 - Stricker +115 over Poulter - Stricker on fire in AM. I had this match dead even...will gladly take the +115