World Cup 2010 Props Part II [B]South Africa Under 3.5 Points -130 in Group Stage[/B]
The host nation has won the World Cup six times. No host nation has ever failed to advance through the Group stage.
However, this host squad will be very lucky to play in the Second Round. South Africa has played friendlies (exhibition matches) against very poor competition over the past two years, and most of those teams were considered 3 or 4 levels down. Now vs. world class teams France, Mexico and Uruguay to get over 3.5 points they are going to have to win a game. (3 points for a win, 1 pt draw) Even still, they could get the benefit of a home field/home crowd call from a biased referee and win a game, but then they need also a draw. I project a draw and two loses.
The opening game of the World Cup on Friday is South Africa vs. Mexico. El Tri is loaded with young talent and is a sleeper team to make the Quarters. We'll find out right there what Bafana Bafana is made of. Another handicapping factor is, look at the Team Goal Total. South Africa is Ov/Un 2.5 goals, that is less than one goal per game in Group action, not a strong sign of a team that is capable of winning more than one game.
[B]Team Total Brazil Over 9.5 Goals [/B]
Brazil faces North Korea in Game One of Group G. I've seen a line of North Korea 10,000 -1 to win just their Group. The line on the game is Brazil -2.5 +110 and the Total is 3.
In other words a shellacking is expected here by Brazil and they should score 3-4 goals IMO and could put the Team Total in good position early. Brazil also knows that if they fail to win Group G and finish second they will face Spain the favorite in this World Cup in the Second Round, instead of a potential Final matchup. Therefore, we expect a Group win and a Quarter or Semi Final Game, giving them potentially 4-6 games to post the 9.5 goals.
Brazil has 4 of the Top 20 Goal scorers in the World Cup with Kaka, Fabiano, Nilmar and Robinho. They are ranked as the No.#1 attack/offensive team in the tournament and the other two Group G teams Portugal and Ivory Coast are considered offensive teams.
This Team Total is as high as 10.5 at the M in Las Vegas and a few other sportsbooks. Obviously you are going shop, finding the right number in Soccer games is crucial as half a goal is worth more in the World Cup than League games and worth more than just about any other sport given the low scoring nature of the game.
Brazil won their friendly tune-up match on Monday vs Tanzania 5-1.
