Wyndham/Greater Greensboro

Wyndham/Greater Greensboro Here I am with the uninformed view, ignoring advice that Anthony Kim isn't bettable at any price.......I have MAX bet for the whole $500 Anthony Kim against Brendan De Jonge for this week at +150. De Jonge has had a great season and I think he should be favoured but obviously the groups again are betting against AK. I just don't know how there isn't value here. 5 Dimes opened this matchup +105 on AK. Bet Cris +110. De Jonge is solid and I doubt I would have laid -125 or -140 at Bet Cris on De Jonge from what I've seen but I have no idea how one could lay -175. I'm a rookie at golf handicapping this year and don't know what Alf or Dude know and I'm not trying to make the same mistakes over and over again but once again AK scores fairly well on the fantasy review here. He has had some bad rounds but he's also had some top finishes the past month or so including in a major. My understanding is that this course is very easy compared to other courses and consistently they shoot well under par. I didn't do any research myself I must admit but the flavour I'm picking up is that AK does shoot well when there are a lot of birdies that can be made in his career. I'm somewhat believing that written information without verifying it. His score at the PGA was +5?? if I recall. He almost made the cut on a difficult course. I want to emphasize I do like De Jonge and I wish it was against someone else. He has been consistent this year and he's knocking on the door to win a tournament but my fair odds on this matchup just in my opinion are -125/+125 for De Jonge. I'm also going to bet the other matchup with AK vs. another guy with the last name Kim. AK was opened as the favourite in that matchup and now he is a dog against him. I might even make this my bet and just hope I can scalp the De Jonge one or reduce with minimal cost. This gets me off betting against De Jonge and I'm more comfortable betting against this other Kim guy.

Skeeter good work and I enjoy your posts. Surely, you noticed the sharp money on most of the matchups are winners? Especially against AK? Yes, I have bet against AK this week with two players, but the price moved 30-40 cents in minutes and cannot post/recommend now. Also, this season and 2 years ago fading the big names that are struggling, like AK, Paddy Harrington, Ernie Els, Dustin Johnson and of course Tiger has been MIB, money in the bank. +150 isn't going to get me or most (maybe the Dude, but he's retired for the season) on AK, I'd need +280 perhaps. AK can go low with the best, but he has shot consistently that one round in the mid to high 70's which he has been prone to do and either misses the cut or mails it in late. Tough to back him with his current form.

Can't disagree at the price you are getting. Playing AK is like rolling the dice a bit, but how much nightlife trouble can the kid find in Greensboro. Anyway, I thought I would post my play in your thread instead of cluttering the board with another thread. Hope you don't mind. [7015] Pat Perez -109 over Steve Marino (1.09 to win 1) Both players are what I consider very streaky and Perez is playing better a few decent tournaments and a t-2 in Reno. I aslo think the guys who don't play in majors have an edge in the week following, both from a mental standpoint and a little bit of something to prove. Marino has missed 3 straight cuts (the Scottish Open, The Open and the PGA Championship) and looks to be in a mini-slump. Like Perez at this number.

Skeeter just an fyi, Kim missed the cut by a stroke in the PGA last week: CUT - Anthony Kim +5 - - 74 71 - - 145

Thanks guys. I like that Perez play. If I recall several weeks ago I did a little research on him because one of the syndicates was on him and I think Alf was on the other side. What I learned was that Perez is a birdie machine and I think Alf (and me following) won that matchup but I think my own conclusion was they liked Perez because he does make a lot of birdies and he is good on easy courses. Come to think of it I think it was the John Deere. Well this is an easy course and Perez is a birdie machine so this might be a good play. I will definitely look into it. Alf, I have absolutely noticed your point. In fact earlier this season when Burger was here, he was critical of you for the "focused favourites" strategy. And I didn't follow early in the year too much but I do know now that Burger commited a flaw in his analysis of your plays and it was a big step in my education when I figured it out. Successful golf betting seems to be more rewarding fading a golfer who is struggling than trying to pick somebody to be "good" and beating someone else. And there has been a lot of success on this board I think this year doing that as well. I even remember my Masters matchup betting against Mike Weir and Ben Crenshaw has to be a winner because these guys in all probability are finishing near the bottom. Pursuant to this I don't think it is any surprise that your plays are more on favourites and you're attacking the books where they have the correct favourite but they're underestimating how much of a favourite that golfer should be. In fact I really think you used the wrong wording to describe your strategy inadvertently since the last thing you ever needed your favourites to be was focused because the whole premise of many of your plays is that the other guy will soon be focused on making weekend plans and it won't be competing in the 3rd and 4th round. Kaymer vs. Tiger last week or Rory vs. Tiger last week being perfect examples where you're winning easily with your picks and your guys are underachieving. I remember pointing out to the board that we won your 2 picks one week and the first guy withdrew after 9 holes (maybe that was Tiger at the Players) and the other guy withdrew after 18 holes. That is what I'm talking about. These are good matchups where I don't even care what my guy does as long as he signs a scorecard. That is advantage betting. And you're killing it on many of these and you have nailed AK as well a few times. I agree in that he seems to do just enough to miss the cut even after playing well for spurts. I guess there has also just been enough successes for him that he doesn't come across to me as a dreg like Paul Casey has or even Tiger. He's had just enough success that I think he's all right at a good price. He's obviously flawed. Obviously you're confident he won't do well in your handicapping and it has worked out well against him. For myself I'm not really handicapping him to win these matchups in that I think at these odds I like my odds. I don't know anything about this other Kim guy but I bet AK +125 and I don't consider AK's game to suck that badly that I think he should be a dog to this guy. But thank you for sharing that you have bet against AK. I'll probably leave my AK bet against the other Kim and at a minimum reduce my bet vs. De Jonge and may even consider eliminating it and I do realize you're saying you might not play +280, how about +380? I take some comfort you're not recommending De Jonge at the current price.

Well we all know you're not going to see +280 on anyone in matchups this week and +380 is a price that would be snapped up fast. My whole point is, and we've had this discussion on the boards many times, is value, and bettors playing the matchup for value and not betting/handicapping for the win...a fine line indeed,chasing value can be a slow boat to China, but to me only +280 would be value on AK, AND value is only good for you when you cash, otherwise your not gettng enough value.

Here is some more value because this is going against the groups. I won't bet these since I don't have an advantage in betting per se but I'd try to snag something if they came back. (1) Garrett Willis I see is +135 vs. JJ Henry. I don't know either golfer that well but actually on the PGA site Willis got a favourable review for this week. I think it said he was another guy who likes easy courses. I'm trying to read something negative about Willis here but can't really find it. He has been in the top 15 2 years in a row here. His scoring average is around 66. And has 2 Top 25 in a row on tour. This is the info I have. Presumably based on this information he is opened as the favourite at -140 at Carib and -123 at Pinnacle. Honestly, how badly can someone want to bet JJ Henry in this matchup? (2) Dufner is now -125 against Immelman. Immelman is actually pretty good. We've had Alf talk a little bit about "hangovers" from winning the week before and Dufner was pretty close---certainly was intense---he has to be somewhat drawn down from that experience. These things to me set up for a withdrawal but Dufner doesn't want to let down people he told he was coming this year I'm sure. He's obviously playing well. As for the course the only write up I saw was that Dufner's strength is tee to green more than on the green and this will be a tournament where you will need to make some putts. The opener on these was again that Immelman is the favourite at -110 and now you can pick him up as a dog. The guy at Pinnacle and Carib and the whole offshore world I'm sure they saw the PGA and didn't make a mistake in making Immelman the favourite. (3) Kyle Stanley was opened at -120 or so in his matchup with Carl Pettersson. Honestly, I've never seen Stanley but Alf has talked about him being a good striker of the ball with a solid swing. Pettersson has had success at this tournament but has really had a poor year overall. (He has won the tournament in 2008). Probably not a bad play based on history to try a bet on Pettersson if you like him with a price as a dog but it has now moved to -114. This one hasn't moved enough for me to be interested but if there is another push on this I don't see how Stanley isn't a bad play at +120 or something to that effect.

Kyle Stanley opened -130 and was hammered the other way, because, Carl Pettersson is a former NC State alumn, lives nearby Sedgefield CC, and this is his home course and as Skeeter mentioned he won here in '08. All good solid points, but his current form is dreadful and I'd take Stanley if I had to play this matchup, but we don't and that's the beauty of being on this side of the counter....pass. I have no matchups to post this week.

No matchup? Is that your "final answer?"

I'm going through the 1st round matchups now and if I find something before sunrise, I'll post it....but nothing at this time.