I am ALWAYS amazed that the bookies are "somehow" able to post point spreads and how the posted spreads always seem to be spot on - for example, the spread on last nights Giants- Cowboy was Cowboys -5, and then the score somehow managed to be a strange final score of Cowboys 20, Giants 15. 20 to 15???
Originally posted by: David Miller
I am ALWAYS amazed that the bookies are "somehow" able to post point spreads and how the posted spreads always seem to be spot on - for example, the spread on last nights Giants- Cowboy was Cowboys -5, and then the score somehow managed to be a strange final score of Cowboys 20, Giants 15. 20 to 15???
If you think this is proof of some kind of conspiracy, you have to realize that point spreads aren't meant to be predictions of the outcome--they are market assessments by the books, The purpose is to equalize the betting. Let's say that a book evaluates the Cowboys as 3 point favorites. It might end up posting a line like Cowboys -6 because all the action is coming in on Dallas. Or they might drop it to Cowboys -1 if a lot of action comes in on the other side.
That said, the INITIAL point spread--otherwise known as the Stardust line, and usually posted Sunday evening for the coming week--is a fairly accurate assessment of how the games "should" go. And since those assessments are the collective opinions of dozens of football betting experts, it's not at all surprising that the games often turn out to be "as predicted" (which, again, was never the purpose OR the meaning of the spread).
The spread "setters" are amazingly good. That's all I can say. I try to jump on my nominal bets right away on Monday am. Not that it makes me any better than anybody else though.
Originally posted by: Jerry Ice 33
The spread "setters" are amazingly good. That's all I can say. I try to jump on my nominal bets right away on Monday am. Not that it makes me any better than anybody else though.
The thing to do, if you have the flexibility to place your bets on any day of the week, is to bet favorites (you're laying points) early in the week and underdogs (you're getting points) as late in the week as possible, even right before game time if you can. The reason is that the great unwashed public favors...favorites. So they bet them up, and the "price" gets higher as the week goes on...and the price of the underdogs gets more attractive.
I've gotten so much value over the years by betting against the "marquee" teams. When the Monster City Giant Dragons play the Peepaw River Field Mice, I take the 24 points, go home, lean back in my chair, and watch as the Dragons win...by 21.
