Best Theo Return on Promo Chips

I'm envious, Dan. I miss Olives. ... I settled for the salad bar at Whole Foods and complemented it with a bottle of Chandler's finest.

Good, Dan, I'm happy that I was able to give you some good food for thought because with Blackjack, it might end up being fraught with problems if they end up restricting you on what you can use it for. If they won't let you use them to Double Down and/or Split Pairs and if BJ does end up paying Even-Money for the Promo Chips, then the casino advantage would definitely spring up to being a lot more than normal.

I definitely am in complete agreement with your example of playing a nickle 100 line as opposed to $5 Single Line (as long as the pay schedules of both games are exactly the same) since I also would rather spread out the Variance since with the second way there is a good chance that all of the $25 (in this example) as opposed to a better chance of having less of the $25 be more likely of going away with a bad hand!

That is why I learned the example that I gave you earlier with Video Blackjack when there is no good VP around especially if it is for less than $20. I learned how to do that from Charles Lund who has written some great stuff!

Take care and I wish you the best of skill and discipline in this endeavor!

RecVPPlayer

Please allow me to explain the non-technical definition of the word "variance".....

I went to HR on Sunday to play off the $15K in promo chips.

As previously explained and subsequently confirmed by the pit boss, they couldn't be used for offsetting bets.

I got the terms of the deal with respect to BJ....no variations to the normal rules due to the use of promo chips.

The game was DD, $100 min., double on any 2 cards, BJ pays 3:2, rsa.....all decent rules with about a .5% house advantage.

I played two hands with $500 chip in each circle. I decided from the onset that I would flat bet $500/hand so counting wasn't really an important consideration. Also, penetration was poor....maybe 50-60%.

I had plenty of favorable double down opportunities but only capitalized once. Never had a BJ although the dealer did once.

In the end, I converted $15K or promo chips into $5,500 of real dollars.

What should have cost me $75 in theo loss actually cost $9,500. That my friends is the real world definition of variance.

The next time the results could be as dramatic in a more positive direction but when you limit your opportunities over such a short session, anything can happen.

Wish I had better news to report but it's a poignant reminder of how bad things can go.

Thanks again for all the input. Not sure I would have done anything differently. The bottom line is that the dealer was getting the good cards and I wasn't. If the double downs went the other way, it's likely $15K in promo chips could have been $20K+ of real money.

C'est la vie mon ami.

Dan

Thank you for sharing your experience.

I'm sorry you didn't do better. Given the relatively favorable conditions you faced with the chips and the blackjack table, I might have done the same thing. I wouldn't have bet two hands at a time, though.

Yes, thank you Dan for sharing your experience!

I am very well aware that there is quite a difference between the theoretical return and the actual return and so with such a short amount of chips (decisions) to deal with, it's quite true that anything can happen and that you could have fallen anywhere in the line from a great score to a not too good overall result.

And I do agree with Fremont4Ever that I also would have only played one hand at a time (not because I now know your results, but) because playing two hands at a time gave you more risk with you possibly putting more money out and ending up with basically even more bad hands.

In this instance compared with the example that you earlier mentioned to me which I answered yesterday evening since I was away from Sunday through yesterday evening, I would view playing 2 hands at a time in this situation as your playing the $5 Single Line game and playing one hand at a time would be the equivalent of playing the Nickle 100 play. And so by ending up dealing with less Dealer Up-Cards than more of them (by playing two hands at a time as opposed to one hand at a time), you ended up leaving yourself with the probability of multiplying the chance of ending up with bad player hands versus the Dealer and his more likely than not Powerful Up-Card.

I had actually assumed that due to your mentioning the 100 Nickel Play versus the $5 Single Play that you were definitely going to play it one hand at a time with one bet at a time over and over again until the Promo Chips ran out!

Oh well, that's the way it goes and ending up with $5.5k isn't the worst thing!

RecVPPlayer

Thanks for sharing the results. Sorry it didn't work out as well as you had hoped.

Still...5.5K is better then nothing.

I still think Pai-gow would have been your best bet!

I've dealt Blackjack, in a casino before, and I don't ever play that game, with my own money.



--Rizzo

Playing blackjack double handed was quick but not conservative.

Good action regardless. Did you earn comps on that action? Thanks for the update.

No tax on the chips as they currently have no value. After all, you cold lose the whole thing.


Sorry you have a bad swing, but that is how it goes. Playing BJ would have been my choice as well. I won a BJ tournament once and the chips/coupons were such that they took them, win or lose each hand. Playing BJ was bad. They did allow me to play single numbers on Roulette, so I played them all and converted 90% of the coupons to cash. Then went and played BJ.



Edited to remove my response. Was wrong.

I would have played it exactly the same.
I often get $750-$1000 in promo chips and always flat bet at blackjack.
Unfortunately,it sounds like you caught a cold shoe.$5K is still a nice hit.