Betting horses on-track

Growing up just a couple of miles from Churchill Downs, I've been betting horses for most of my life. Unsuccessfully. (At least as far as profit; I'm always entertained at the track.) Lately I've started going down to the paddock before each race trying to pick up signs that horses are fit and ready to run. I didn't grow up on a horse farm; just looking for rather obvious things. 

 

So I'm wondering whether any other horse players do this, and what they look for. In my tiny sample, it seems to be helping me find value. Do any others do this? If so, what do you look for? Thanks for all replies. 

We went to Oaklawn (Hot Springs, AR) nearly every weekend of their short season, and Lousiana Downs very often.  Like you, I loved it; the atmosphere, people, etc.  I studied the Racing Form intently.  I enjoyed going to the paddock but didn't do it before every race.  When I did, like you I'd look for "signs", like the horse's energy, general behavior, and how intently the trainer and jockey seemed to connect, as in hopeful?  I almost always watched them in the post parade.  I didn't like it when one was too rambunctious. 

 

I finally decided those signs could mean something or nothing and only AFTER the race could I know "well, I was right about that...shoulda/should not have bet" based on the sign.  Was the horse rambunctious in the paddock, and what did that mean; or was he calm and stately looking?  Had there been a jockey change?  On Lasix the first time?  So much data, so many things to consider.  I guess that's what I liked about it.

 

One day at Louisiana Downs, mid summer, prior to the post parade, a horse was ridden once around the track at breakneck speed, just the one horse, about 5 minutes before the post parade.  Everyone was pointing and commenting.  I said to myself "Hmm, is something up here?"  Why would the connections subject this horse to this rigorous exercise on this hot day right before the race?  No notable connections as far as owner/trainer, etc.  Not picked by any of the touts, etc.  Didn't make sense, and I let it go.  Of course, the horse won at big odds.  This was at least 30 years ago or more, and I still think about it.

 

On the other hand, one weekend during my intense study of the Racing Form I had picked two horses for an exacta, no signs, nothing other than my true study of their records etc.  (I was always looking for a decent long shot).  Then I fell prey to the chatter about other horses' chances, the favorites, etc.  So I thought...I'd be crazy to waste money on this.  My two went off at huge odds and came in.  Big exacta win, but not for me, 'cause I doubted my intuition.  I was lamenting my 'stupidity', when a nice old guy said to me "always play your hunches."  I think that is a good rule to bet by, though many of those hunches won't come in.

 

Have you ever seen the movie "The Long Shot", with Richard Dreyfus?  What a great and funny movie.  He is down on his luck and money and his wife is ready to kill him for all he spends betting horses.  This particular day he goes around finding out which horses are getting the action.  Of those he would mark them off his program for that race.  Of course he has a great day winning every race by betting horses getting no respect and going off at huge odds.  Funny, funny movie.

 

Candy

Edited on Feb 9, 2022 3:47pm

I've always been highly amused at the stuff in the Racing Form. Reasons why this horsie or that horsie is "due" or my favorite, "may need race." These reasons could include "it's a full moon," "jockey likes to eat garlic," "always wins on Tuesday," "Virgo descending," "winds of up to 30 mph expected from the southeast," and "Mars needs women." Somehow, the people writing the Form and those reading it think they can best the handicappers AND beat the 20% house vig to win big time. Snort.

 

I doubt that pre-race horsie inspection actually provides any useful information. If it did, you'd see crowds of people trying to interview every horsie, maybe sticking microphones in their noses, like with LeBron James before a Laker game. I'd think that at a minimum, you'd have to speak and understand fluent Horse. "Hey, dude, you feel like racing today?" (snort, snort)--"Hell, no!" Check that one off the list.

 

I remember a cartoon from long ago, a bunch of bettors are at the track rail, there's a big cloud of dust, and they're all looking toward the pack of horses that just sped by and cheering--except for one guy, who has a rifle and he's aiming it in the opposite direction.

Edited on Feb 9, 2022 6:44pm
Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis

I've always been highly amused at the stuff in the Racing Form. Reasons why this horsie or that horsie is "due" or my favorite, "may need race." These reasons could include "it's a full moon," "jockey likes to eat garlic," "always wins on Tuesday," "Virgo descending," "winds of up to 30 mph expected from the southeast," and "Mars needs women." Somehow, the people writing the Form and those reading it think they can best the handicappers AND beat the 20% house vig to win big time. Snort.

 

I doubt that pre-race horsie inspection actually provides any useful information. If it did, you'd see crowds of people trying to interview every horsie, maybe sticking microphones in their noses, like with LeBron James before a Laker game. I'd think that at a minimum, you'd have to speak and understand fluent Horse. "Hey, dude, you feel like racing today?" (snort, snort)--"Hell, no!" Check that one off the list.

 

I remember a cartoon from long ago, a bunch of bettors are at the track rail, there's a big cloud of dust, and they're all looking toward the pack of horses that just sped by and cheering--except for one guy, who has a rifle and he's aiming it in the opposite direction.


I have no illusions that I can "win big" and beat pro handicappers working full time with their own servers and proprietary algorithms. My goals are to 1) keep enjoying my days at the races and 2) win a little (or at least lose less). 

 

My thinking is that the pros are mostly betting remotely from all over the world. The only data that's NOT in the Racing Form is a) that which is available from seeing the animals up close and b) crooked ways info (e.g., form-darkening, PEDs, jockey race-fixing). I have read up on some things to watch for, which seem to be fairly consistent across sources and have helped me manage some small wins.

 

But, like I said, my success is based on a very small sample size. Thus my question asking if there are other aspects to watch for. 


Originally posted by: matt roberts

I have no illusions that I can "win big" and beat pro handicappers working full time with their own servers and proprietary algorithms. My goals are to 1) keep enjoying my days at the races and 2) win a little (or at least lose less). 

 

My thinking is that the pros are mostly betting remotely from all over the world. The only data that's NOT in the Racing Form is a) that which is available from seeing the animals up close and b) crooked ways info (e.g., form-darkening, PEDs, jockey race-fixing). I have read up on some things to watch for, which seem to be fairly consistent across sources and have helped me manage some small wins.

 

But, like I said, my success is based on a very small sample size. Thus my question asking if there are other aspects to watch for. 


Remote bettors may or may not be factored into the pari-mutuel pool. If those bets are handled by a third party entity, whatever happens there won't affect the track odds.

 

I don't really doubt that you can gain by "inspecting" the horses pre-race, but I question the extent to which that's effective. The pro handicappers you mention certainly don't factor that into their decisions (if only for the simple reason that they can't).

 

So it's a high negative EV game, but you may be able to lessen the house vig by being better informed. It's not unlike playing slots--you'll lose money no matter what, but there are definitely good ways and bad ways to play them.

A good thing to do is be friendly the concession people on a regular basis.  One whom we made 'friends' with (glad to see each other every weekend) would now and then get a solid tip from one of the trainers, and she passed a really good tip to us on occasion.  There is a level of cameraderie among race track people, e.g. concession folks, trainers, touts, tellers.  On any given day somebody knows of a horse that absolutely will win a race by hook or by crook, and that somebody might tell a buddy.  That can be gold.

 

Overall, it is just a bunch of fun to me.  Bet with a tout, with the racing form, with winning trainers, jockeys, jockey's colors, first time lasix, long shots, pick your superstition.  My friend and I would do the "Father, Son, and Holy Ghost" system:  If the same NUMBER (as in #6) was a winner of two races (not necessarily consecutive), we'd put $2 on that number every race from then on...that number being the "Ghost."  A bunch of hooey, of course, but sometimes that "number" came in and on occasion was a long shot.   Always a fun day, win or lose.

 

Candy

I might be wrong, but I think the takeout is the same for the sharp bettors and the less sharp.

 

 

Actually I'm pretty sure I am wrong. If you play thru a rebate outfit you take back some of the edge.

Edited on Feb 13, 2022 4:20am
Already a LVA subscriber?
To continue reading, choose an option below:
Diamond Membership
$3 per month
Unlimited access to LVA website
Exclusive subscriber-only content
Limited Member Rewards Online
Join Now
or
Platinum Membership
$50 per year
Unlimited access to LVA website
Exclusive subscriber-only content
Exclusive Member Rewards Book
Join Now