We went to Oaklawn (Hot Springs, AR) nearly every weekend of their short season, and Lousiana Downs very often. Like you, I loved it; the atmosphere, people, etc. I studied the Racing Form intently. I enjoyed going to the paddock but didn't do it before every race. When I did, like you I'd look for "signs", like the horse's energy, general behavior, and how intently the trainer and jockey seemed to connect, as in hopeful? I almost always watched them in the post parade. I didn't like it when one was too rambunctious.
I finally decided those signs could mean something or nothing and only AFTER the race could I know "well, I was right about that...shoulda/should not have bet" based on the sign. Was the horse rambunctious in the paddock, and what did that mean; or was he calm and stately looking? Had there been a jockey change? On Lasix the first time? So much data, so many things to consider. I guess that's what I liked about it.
One day at Louisiana Downs, mid summer, prior to the post parade, a horse was ridden once around the track at breakneck speed, just the one horse, about 5 minutes before the post parade. Everyone was pointing and commenting. I said to myself "Hmm, is something up here?" Why would the connections subject this horse to this rigorous exercise on this hot day right before the race? No notable connections as far as owner/trainer, etc. Not picked by any of the touts, etc. Didn't make sense, and I let it go. Of course, the horse won at big odds. This was at least 30 years ago or more, and I still think about it.
On the other hand, one weekend during my intense study of the Racing Form I had picked two horses for an exacta, no signs, nothing other than my true study of their records etc. (I was always looking for a decent long shot). Then I fell prey to the chatter about other horses' chances, the favorites, etc. So I thought...I'd be crazy to waste money on this. My two went off at huge odds and came in. Big exacta win, but not for me, 'cause I doubted my intuition. I was lamenting my 'stupidity', when a nice old guy said to me "always play your hunches." I think that is a good rule to bet by, though many of those hunches won't come in.
Have you ever seen the movie "The Long Shot", with Richard Dreyfus? What a great and funny movie. He is down on his luck and money and his wife is ready to kill him for all he spends betting horses. This particular day he goes around finding out which horses are getting the action. Of those he would mark them off his program for that race. Of course he has a great day winning every race by betting horses getting no respect and going off at huge odds. Funny, funny movie.
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