Blackjack and Basic Strategy exceptions

So often I'll walk past a table and notice a player's first two cards totaling only 5 or 6.  After 3 hits, player is only at 16.  He always take that one last hit - and busts.  Even though the dealer shows a 10, isn't that a bad choice? They would rather risk busting when it seems even more that they would, than just standing and playing the hand out.  

     Is there not a difference between hitting a 16 vs. Dealer's 10 when it's from your first two cards than after one more more hits?  And I hope I've asked this right.

             Tim

If you're playing straight basic strategy ( with no further knowledge or inputs), ya hit it. There are, however, some knowledgeable BJ players who won't hit a four card 16 player hand. The long term math says hit it ( with no other information besides basic strategy).

Here's the scoop.

Hard 16 vs. a dealer 10 up: wins 24% of the time by standing, and a bit less than 26% of the time by hitting. So while the hand is a loser no matter what, it loses less if you hit. That's a major portion of Basic Strategy: losing less with bad hands.

Now, if you're playing single deck, Basic Strategy says to hit a two-card hard 16 but stand on three or more cards. That's because the presence of that three-card hard 16 means that at least one of the small cards you would like to draw is already out of the deck. That skews the decision in favor of standing. However, that only applies in a single-deck game. Another single-deck Basic Strategy move that depends on hand composition is hard 12 vs. a dealer 4. You stand most of the time, but hit if you have specifically 10-2. That's because hitting is safer with one 10 gone (I refer here to 10/J/Q/K).

All that said, in a multi-deck game, there's not enough card removal with a 3+ card hard 16 to justify standing. The rule is still usable in 6:5 single deck.

I look at a stiff vs. a dealer high card as being like a batter with two strikes facing a pitch he's not sure he can hit but is in the strike zone. If he doesn't at least swing, he's probably dead anyway. Better to die trying than to nervously tuck your cards under your bet and watch the dealer flip over a hard 20.

I'm reminded of a tragicomic moment: an obviously new player at South Point, betting $500, with a gaggle of friends watching and cheering him on. He got dealt a hard 16 with the dealer showing a face card. He hemmed, he hawed, he agonized...and finally stood. His friends cheered and praised his savvy and intuition when the dealer turned up his down card-- a 6. The dealer also had a hard 16.

The next card was a 5.

I have the Don Schlesinger double-deck strategy card, which I bought from LVA and use to practice with. For Double Deck, when the dealer hits soft 17 and double after split is allowed and also when it's not allowed, the card says to "stand if 16 is multi-card or the result of a pair split" against a 10. 

As always with gambling strategy, what game are you playing and what are the rules, matter.

You could always invest $19.99 and buy the three strategy card bundle from lVA.