Breaking the Slot Code – How would you use the information?

I do feel sorry for you.

Obviously, no one knows exactly when a royal will hit or how many hands it will take. Duh! But we do know the average/median number of hands it "should" take, based on the game being played and any strategy adjustments. So it's silly for you to claim that you don't "know" when a royal will hit but you somehow can "know" when a slot bonus will hit.

The difference, of course, is that the expected frequency of a royal can be precisely calculated by the player, while the expected frequency of a slot bonus, set by the manufacturer and possibly tweaked by the operator, cannot. Those who have trouble grasping the concept of expectation (EV) don't realize that EV is all that matters; short-term results don't. You went almost three "cycles" without hitting a royal. That, in and of itself, meant nothing. You were about 2.7 standard deviations off the mean, or about an 8% chance of running that cold (mental calculation; probably not precise). Happens ALL the time, and it's not indicative of the game's playability.

"Knowing" the games doesn't help unless that "knowledge" includes the base payback of the game and the frequency of the bonus(es). It's that simple. You may understand how the Drunken Cow bonus works once you hit it, but that information in and of itself won't help you win or determine whether the game is in a positive state.

The reality of how both slots and VP play is pretty much the same as it was in 1990. The games are more complex, but slots still have an inherent preset payback, VP machines have a given paytable, and either type of game can offer a positive return if it has a progressive bonus/jackpot and it's large enough to overcome the house edge. Nothing new about that.

I'll stop discussing this with you, because I sense that you're arguing from belief rather than reason, and trying to talk anyone out of a belief is an exercise in futility. I asked you several times how anyone can tell those two factors that determine whether a bonusing slot is +EV: base payback and bonus frequency. You've waffled, because the only answer is: "You have to be the one that programmed the machine." Just staring at a machine and praying don't cut it.

Good luck.

I t is really amazing how some people will bitch and moan about games and casinos and really have no clue because they have a preconcieved belief , and no desire to learn.  If people want to have good trips to the casino, they should try to learn the games they are playing.  I think it is pretty simple.  If you don;t understand the games, then you probably should not play or bitch when somebody else does and has a good time.

And what is your complaint, exactly? What are you bitching and moaning about? I was expessing skepticism about the claims made regarding a gambling "how-to" book. Tellingly, no one has ventured to answer my question re how one could supposedly determine that a slot machine is +EV just by looking at it.

I have no "preconceived beliefs" about slot machines because I have knowledge of them, but no "beliefs" at all. Beliefs are worthless. As far as "no desire to learn"--I desire to learn all I can, which is why I've been asking the question I referred to, above, over and over.

What you label "no desire to learn" is actually refusal to believe something that is claimed without evidence. I've had religious people make the same accusation--verbatim--when I refused to believe their mythologies. And as far as knowledge of games goes, I have intricate knowledge of how slot machines work. What I do not have knowledge of, and the author of the book claims to have, is the payback percentage of a given machine, and therefore whether it is a positive play. Only the manufacturer and the casino know those vital figures.

I know that it's very attractive to have "solved" slot machines and thus, be able to theoretically make money playing a game that is normally a money pit. That's why I'm seeing so much "belief" here instead of good, solid evidence. This wouldn't exactly be the first book I've ever seen or read with a "system" to beat a heretofore unbeatable game. There must be fifty books out there detailing a sure-fire system to win every time at craps, for example.

I don't care whether someone has a good time losing money. That's their lookout. This thread wasn't about how to enjoy slots, though; it was about how to beat them.

But hey, it would be cool if I was totally wrong, and every bonusing slot was a magical mystery money making machine ("MMMMM")! But I have to ask...if that was the case, why on earth would the author of the book be spilling his secrets for a mere $30, when he can earn 500 times that per day just by walking into a casino and winking at slot machines???

No need to feel sorry for me, I know what I'm doing, and you have no idea what I'm doing.

Read the LVA question of the day article, and maybe you'll allow yourself to realize you're wrong.

You don't understand how the different games work, and I'm not going to attempt to explain it to you, because I would have to write a book to do that. Oh yeah, LVA has two books that do it, but you don't want to spend $16 to try to understand. 

The book purports to explain how a gambler can just walk up to a slot machine and use his mystical powers to divine whether it's +EV. And I understand the theory quite well. But I note that you still evade the fundamental question. So since you've read the book and are a rabid advocate of its teachings, I would expect that you could answer my question easily.

But you can't. You just weasel to "you don't understand." 

I know how variable state games, bonusing, etc. and all those things eork--I daresay much better than you do. And I understand your emotional response and frustration. You say you've been slot vulturing for some time now, using the mighty wisdom that is newly explained is this magic book. So why ain't you rich?

OBVIOUSLY, one can look at a variable state/bonusing machine and discern THAT IT'S BETTER THAN USUAL. But can one determine whether that places it in +EV territory?

No.

I'm not emotional or frustrated, try not to project so much.

Why ain't you rich is a stupid question.

One apparent aspect of these variable state slots is that they are, like all slots, hugely profitable for the casinos until they eventually reach a 'tell' or tipping point for a given game ( eg they become 'playable' for slot AP's/ vultures).  Completely unaware, minimally knowlegable slot players, and including so-called slot AP's feed these machines repeatedly on this journey to 'playability' that the vultures are on the lookout for. A proportion of those minimally knowledgable slot players may know that a given machine is on somebody's published list of 'beatable machines'. These two factors present a concern for casino slot management teams and could theoretically end up restricting these playable machines presence on the slot floors. After reading some of the articles surrounding these machines, apparently some casinos have elected to remove them entirely from their inventories because it ticks off their bread and butter unaware slot players which are the main revenue sources.

A prospective slot player including a slot AP can't know what the RTP% for a given machine is without a PAR sheet. I've read that some of these pros have utilized the Freedom of Information Act to get their hands on these PAR sheets. The number of spins required to arrive at a meaningfully accurate RTP% on one's own is prohibitive for just about any single player. The concept of a pure stat for +/- EV for slots is unattainable for the great grand majority of players simply because the metrics needed to calculate it are not available without a slot tech bribe or other inside info source. If the true EV's for a given slot were easily attainable, a player would still have to deal with standard deviation and variance (wild swings) that are seen in all other casino games; an example of that is Max Flavor's atypical royal experience.    None of the above precludes the existence of these beatable slot opportunities.    

There's too much evidence from slot 'experts' to deny plausability of playing these identified ' beatable' games as long as the participants are willing to invest the effort and time to engage in the slot AP circus. That might include a fist fight or two at a given machine on some random slot floor and/or roaming dozens of casino floors to eventually land on an opportunity. It's their business.

cdcgaming.com/commentary/frank-floor-talk-slots-101-persistence-slot-machines

cdcgaming.com/commentary/frank-floor-talk-book-review-breaking-the-slot-code

I'm not projecting; I'm observing you. I have no emotions re slots, because I don't play them; I have no frustrations re slots, because I have no goals or objectives related to them. But youve told us that you do in fact play them, and your rather angry responses to my blasphemous skepticism strongly suggest that you have an emotional as well as a financial investment. Which is fine.

The vagueness of all this "advice": "Play this machine when it's in a positive state." "How do I know"? "When the Bovine Dragon Bonus hits $147.78." "How did you determine that number?" "Ummm...that's what I think it should be."

Sorry, but if I'm going to risk/spend money on something like this, I need a lot more proof that it's worthwhile. You don't need that. That's also fine. We have different objectives and points of view. 

Yes. The player cannot know the RTP of a given machine, and worse, even a "par sheet" would only apply to that specific machine, not Space Cow Dragon Chinese Fat Guy machines overall. Every slot can be programmed for a specific base return. The lower that is, the higher the bonus would have to be. Every slot can be programmed for a specific bonus hit frequency. The more seldom that frequency is, the higher the bonus would have to be. So in order to determine if the bonus is high enough to put the machine in a positive state, one would have to know both those things: for that one specific machine! A general "PAR sheet" won't cut it. 

For instance, Freddy the Slot Guru's tell-all book might say that a Fortune Fart machine is +EV when the bonus hits $X, but that would be with the assumption that the inherent payback is x%, let's say 80%. But what if the machine you're standing in front of at the Silver Commode has been set to 70% base payback? Then, that juicy bonus is a trap.

The issues associated with slot vulturing, i.e., the disruptive presence of the vultures and the degrading of the slot experience for the great unwashed sucker masses, are good reasons for casinos to not offer bonusing slots at all. But I strongly suspect that very, very much like with card counting, for every successful AP, there are twenty would-be APs who think they have an edge. The money the casinos get from the latter dwarfs what they give up to the former.

My understanding is that RTP percentage and bonus hit frequency cannot be set as separate figures. Not sure if it's what you meant but your comment seemed to imply that they could be set separately. 

Most machines have a handful of preset RTP percentages pre-programmed by the manufacturer from which the casino can choose. The bonus frequency changes in accordance with the RTP percentage. 

A par sheet would have all of the RTP information for each setting. 

My feelings are that most of the people actually profiting off of slots (long term) are using some sort of insider information. Either from the manufacturer side knowing what the percentage choices are and assuming the worst and/or for the casino side knowing how that machine was set. 

Without insider information you would have to perform millions of spins to be able to get an understanding of its RTP.  When the gaming commission tests RTP accuracy they simulate billions of spins. 

I don't think the idea is to try to get an exact moment when the machine is +EV. I think the idea is to know when it's better than usual or when it's at its worst.