Originally posted by: MaxFlavor
I'm really not interested in going back and forth with you on this because you don't know the different slot machine games. Three years ago, I had no idea how they worked; I would have to ask my wife why something happened.
In a nutshell, you're not knowledgeable, you're not willing to spend $16 on a book and make a few spins to figure it out, and you're wrong.
You have no idea how long it would take to hit a progressive Royal based on averages. I played Bonus Poker for 13 months, guess what, I know on average a Royal will hit around 40,233 hands on that exact game, check my numbers. You're not the only one who knows this basic stuff. I played 112,184 hands before I hit a Royal. So you have no idea how long it will take to hit, even if you change strategy. In the same time frame, on the same game, sitting next to me, my wife hit 5 Royals.
It's not 1990 anymore.
I do feel sorry for you.
Obviously, no one knows exactly when a royal will hit or how many hands it will take. Duh! But we do know the average/median number of hands it "should" take, based on the game being played and any strategy adjustments. So it's silly for you to claim that you don't "know" when a royal will hit but you somehow can "know" when a slot bonus will hit.
The difference, of course, is that the expected frequency of a royal can be precisely calculated by the player, while the expected frequency of a slot bonus, set by the manufacturer and possibly tweaked by the operator, cannot. Those who have trouble grasping the concept of expectation (EV) don't realize that EV is all that matters; short-term results don't. You went almost three "cycles" without hitting a royal. That, in and of itself, meant nothing. You were about 2.7 standard deviations off the mean, or about an 8% chance of running that cold (mental calculation; probably not precise). Happens ALL the time, and it's not indicative of the game's playability.
"Knowing" the games doesn't help unless that "knowledge" includes the base payback of the game and the frequency of the bonus(es). It's that simple. You may understand how the Drunken Cow bonus works once you hit it, but that information in and of itself won't help you win or determine whether the game is in a positive state.
The reality of how both slots and VP play is pretty much the same as it was in 1990. The games are more complex, but slots still have an inherent preset payback, VP machines have a given paytable, and either type of game can offer a positive return if it has a progressive bonus/jackpot and it's large enough to overcome the house edge. Nothing new about that.
I'll stop discussing this with you, because I sense that you're arguing from belief rather than reason, and trying to talk anyone out of a belief is an exercise in futility. I asked you several times how anyone can tell those two factors that determine whether a bonusing slot is +EV: base payback and bonus frequency. You've waffled, because the only answer is: "You have to be the one that programmed the machine." Just staring at a machine and praying don't cut it.
Good luck.
