Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
The mistake I made was to totally forget to bet on UConn at any stage. I don't normally bet college anything, as it's really professional sports, albeit lower-level. But everything I heard was that UConn was playing at a higher level than everyone else.
I believe Uconn won and COVERED all their games in the NCAA tourney for the past two years. Too bad I wasn't on them. Betting double digit favorites ain't my thing.
Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
And you didn't notice Jerry Ice starting the nastiness with "And you know nothing about sports as well," and continuing to gnaw on that like a dog on a bone?
Agree, Jerry Ice was the primary bully. But you could have said nothing, which is more effective in ending a bully's effort.
Hey, girls were the worst bullys back in my Jr High and HS days, though the term 'bully' hadn't caught on at that time (50s, 60s). The prettiest, best dressed, dated the football jocks. They reigned, 'nobody else can play.' Few rude comments to the 'peasants', just overt snobbery. The best defense was to never show that you cared, even if you did.
Candy
Originally posted by: Don the Dentist
I believe Uconn won and COVERED all their games in the NCAA tourney for the past two years. Too bad I wasn't on them. Betting double digit favorites ain't my thing.
Yeah, which is one of the reasons I don't bet college sports--the gross mismatches that are so common prodice inflated spreads. How do you know if it's a good or bad bet to lay (or take) 23 points? You can't.
Actually, you can. LOL. That's why college sports, historically, are the most beatable sports -- both football and basketball. You need to know the context within which the game is played -- in other words, knowing who is likely to substitute to what degree when after the actual outcome is decided, is a big chunk of the gambling battle.
As Frank Castle often says, it's not about revenge. It's about punishment.
I'll say it nicer. Stay in your lane Kevin.
Originally posted by: Robert Dietz
Actually, you can. LOL. That's why college sports, historically, are the most beatable sports -- both football and basketball. You need to know the context within which the game is played -- in other words, knowing who is likely to substitute to what degree when after the actual outcome is decided, is a big chunk of the gambling battle.
As Frank Castle often says, it's not about revenge. It's about punishment.
It was predictable that Jerry would make a stupid, uninformed, and obnoxious comment, but I was serious. There's simply not enough historical data to be able to research mismatch point spreads.
It is true that specialists in one team and/or conference, especially a lesser known one, can find weaknesses in Vegas lines. But I reiterate that it's virtually impossible to tell if a huge spread is worth betting into. And yes, Jerryhole, that's my opinion. I've never told you that you weren't entitled to yours or that yours isn't valid just because I don't agree with you.
Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
It was predictable that Jerry would make a stupid, uninformed, and obnoxious comment, but I was serious. There's simply not enough historical data to be able to research mismatch point spreads.
It is true that specialists in one team and/or conference, especially a lesser known one, can find weaknesses in Vegas lines. But I reiterate that it's virtually impossible to tell if a huge spread is worth betting into. And yes, Jerryhole, that's my opinion. I've never told you that you weren't entitled to yours or that yours isn't valid just because I don't agree with you.
I've been betting college hoops for a while now, and I avoid laying more than 10 points in any case. I have no hard data on it, but my sense is that laying more than double digits is a crapshoot. Not only can teams have bad shooting nights, foul trouble, suffer an effort deficit from being a heavy favorite, etc., but a lot of coaches take their foot off the gas when they have a big lead. Then some freshman from a mid-major launches a meaningless three with time running out that prevents the cover.
I'll gladly TAKE double digit points in certain situations; but if you lay big spreads you're betting on fifteen-twenty college kids to do exactly what's expected. Having raised six of my own.....that's a gamble....
Originally posted by: Kevin Lewis
It was predictable that Jerry would make a stupid, uninformed, and obnoxious comment, but I was serious. There's simply not enough historical data to be able to research mismatch point spreads.
It is true that specialists in one team and/or conference, especially a lesser known one, can find weaknesses in Vegas lines. But I reiterate that it's virtually impossible to tell if a huge spread is worth betting into. And yes, Jerryhole, that's my opinion. I've never told you that you weren't entitled to yours or that yours isn't valid just because I don't agree with you.
Actually, as far as what sports are more beatable, that's been established for a long, long time.
Time for a brief history lesson. In the late 70's, 80's, and early 90's, former Seattle Times reporter Mike McCusker published an annual summary of sports service plays from football and basketball seasons. At its peak, "Tipsters or Gypsters?" also known as The McCusker Report, annually summarized both the monitored records and business practices of more than 100 sports services. It also tallied multi-year records on its back pages, at least 2, 3, and 5-year cumulative records. McCusker was based in Las Vegas, published "Tipsters or Gypsters?" there, and kept tabs on dozens of services every year until the mid-90's.
The ATS sports service records for college football were cumulatively much better than the NFL records. The same was true for college hoops compared to NBA.
So in terms of which sports were more beatable or more convincingly beatable, college was much, much more profitable than professional.
Side note: although Billy Walters, in his book Gambler, occasionally writes a line regarding how much he bet on certain NFL games, he makes no mention of which sports provided him with the most profits overall, and he states no overall percentages for different sports. There are reasons for that. Betting professional sports is much more popular than college, volume is higher, a higher percentage of people do so. Thus, in the interests of selling the book (two chapters are "how-to" chapters), Walters focuses entirely on the NFL. That's no accident. He's selling books. It's also no accident that his "how to's" involve the sport least amenable to being beaten long-term. He's not really cutting his own throat by sharing a few insights with civilians.
